ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun recently reported agent Pat Brisson, who represents Blackhawks stars Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, travelled to Chicago to quietly begin contract extension talks with ‘Hawks GM Stan Bowman.
LeBrun also made an interesting observation regarding the Blackhawks talent depth and cap space:
The Hawks will have tough decisions to make -- too many good players, but not enough cap space.
Yes, indeed, the Blackhawks will face some tough decisions between now and July 1st, although most likely management will push those tough decisions ahead until sometime next spring, depending of course on how far the club goes in the post-season.
For starters, the Blackhawks currently have over $42.5 million committed to their 2010-11 payroll for 12 players: goaltender Cristobal Huet ($5.625 million), defensemen Brian Campbell ($7.142 million), Brent Seabrook ($3.5 million), Cam Barker ($3.083 million) and Brent Sopel ($2.333 million), and forwards Marian Hossa ($5.275 million), Patrick Sharp ($3.9 million), Dave Bolland ($3.375 million), Kris Versteeg ($3.083 million), Dustin Byfuglien ($3 million), Tomas Kopecky ($1.2 million) and Troy Brouwer ($1.025 million).
If Kane and Toews have better performances this season or even those comparable to last it’ll likely cost the Blackhawks between $10-$12 million per season to retain the two on long-term contracts. Even if the deals they sign the pair to are 10-12-15 year contracts which are heavily front-loaded to reduce the cap hit it’s still likely going to run in that $10-$12 million neighborhood.
Assuming the Blackhawks somehow get the pair to agree to $5 million per season each, that’ll push the Blackhawks cap hit for 2010-11 to over $52 million committed to 14 players.
Now assuming the salary cap remains around $56 million for next season, that’ll leave the Blackhawks roughly $4 million in available cap space to sign 9 more players to bring their roster up to the mandatory 23 players.
Kane and Toews aren’t the only restricted free agents who’ll be seeking new contracts with raises next summer.
Defenseman Duncan Keith, considered the rock of the Blackhawks blueline and perhaps the most under-rated defenseman in the league, is getting paid over $1.475 million for this season and will likely seek over $4 million per.
Forward Andrew Ladd is earning $1.55 million this season and if he has another strong year could look to double his money.
Gritty forward Ben Eager will likely look to at least double up on the $965K he’s earning this season.
That’s also not counting the backup goaltender Antti Niemi, defenseman Niklas Hjarmarsson and forward Colin Fraser, plus UFA forwards John Madden and Adam Burish.
That’s of course assuming the salary cap doesn’t decline. Some have suggested the cap might drop to as low as $52 million, which would squeeze almost all NHL teams but especially the Blackhawks.
Even if there’s actually an increase, let’s say it actually goes as high as $60 million, the Blackhawks would still lack sufficient cap space to keep their current roster intact.
So what’s Blackhawks management to do?
One has to assume the Blackhawks won’t move either Toews or Kane as they’re the faces of the franchise and the foundation upon which the club has rebuilt into what some consider - myself included - a potential Stanley Cup contender this season.
They cannot afford to lose the effective Keith, who has been their blueline stalwart through bad years and good.
Estimate it’ll cost a conservative $14 million to retain those three, and now the Blackhawks have no available cap space to re-sign any of the rest of their potential RFAs and UFAs before next summer.
That means the Blackhawks roster for 2010-11 is going to look very different from the one taking the ice for the 2009-10 season as they'll have to slash considerable payroll in order to retain those three.
Forget about dealing away Huet, Hossa and Campbell. Their contracts are too expensive to move plus Campbell has a limited no-trade clause (where he submits a list of 8 teams he’ll accept a trade to) while Hossa’s is believed to contain an ironclad NTC.
They could likely dump Sopel’s $2.33 million via trade if he has a good season or perhaps demote him to the minors for next season.
Seabrook and Barker continue to show considerable promise and while their names have come up occasionally in trade rumors it’s believed the ‘Hawks want to hang onto them.
Forwards who could be moved include Sharp ($3.9 million), Byfuglien ($3 million) and possibly Kopecky ($1.2 million), whom they recently signed from the Red Wings this summer.
Those moves would free up over $8 million in total salary and combined with Sopel’s $2.33 million would free up over $10.4 million in valuable cap space.
Still, it would also leave them having to sign 12 more players to flesh out their roster, and suddenly that doesn’t leave very much room to get the job done.
That means affordable signings all for under $1 million per season, including some two-way contracts and promoting some kids from the farm.
It would also mean kissing Ladd, Madden, Eager, Burish and Colin Fraser good bye. Now some fans would look at that and dismiss their loss plus the move of Sharp, Byfuglien, Kopecky and Sopel as not a big deal given the bulk of the talent retained.
It’ll get the Blackhawks barely under the cap (provided it doesn’t decline from $56 million) but it’s also possible losing that many players, including so many hardworking character players, could have an adverse effect upon depth and team chemistry.
I’m only making my best guesses here as to what the Blackhawks might do. We don’t know for sure how much it’ll cost to retain Kane, Toews and Keith, or if the front office would be willing to retain all three. Management might actually find a taker for someone like Campbell meaning it wouldn’t cost them as many players to free up cap space.
One thing is certain: the Blackhawks are in a tight fix salary cap wise for next season, have too many overpriced players eating up valuable cap space, and have three of their foundation players eligible for big raises after this season.
Something’s gotta give in Chicago after this season.
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