The Hockey News recently ranked the 20 best free agents who could be available in 2016. Here’s my take on those I believe will be on the market next July.
Can the Winnipeg Jets afford to re-sign Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien?
THE HOCKEY NEWS: Jared Clinton ranked the 20 best free agents who could hit next summer’s unrestricted market. They are Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos and Braydon Coburn, Los Angeles’ Anze Kopitar and Milan Lucic, Calgary’s Marc Giordano, Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd, Chicago’s Brent Seabrook, Carolina’s Eric Staal and Cam Ward, St. Louis’ David Backes, New York Islanders’ Kyle Okposo and Fran Nielsen, Colorado’s Erik Johnson, Dallas’ Alex Goligoski, New York Rangers’ Keith Yandle, Montreal’s Tomas Plekanec, Florida’s Brian Campbell, Edmonton’s Cam Talbot and Vancouver’s Radim Vrbata.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s an impressive list of talent, though obviously most of these players won’t be available when next July 1 rolls around. Many factors will determine their fates, not the least of which is their respective asking prices.
I believe Stamkos, Kopitar, Ladd, Seabrook, Nielsen, Johnson and Goligoski will be re-signed before the end of June 2016. Yes, some of them will be very expensive, but I think they’re so invaluable to their respective teams that they’ll ultimately get the contracts they seek.
The Kings won’t have the cap space to re-sign Kopitar and Lucic unless they shed salary elsewhere, which is why I expect Lucic will be available. The Jets have the cap space to re-sign Byfuglien and Ladd, but I suspect this budget-conscious club will keep Ladd, as they have the blueline depth to offset the departure of “Big Buff.” The Flames want to re-sign Giordano and he undoubtedly wants to stay, but he could prove too expensive to retain. The Flames must also ensure they have sufficient cap space to re-sign rising stars Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau.
Staal’s status depends upon if he sees a long-term future with the Hurricanes and how much of a pay cut he’s willing to accept. Ward’s a goner. If the Blues make another early playoff exit, significant roster changes could be in store and Backes could be among them. Okposo’s name popped up in trade rumors during this year’s NHL draft. If Ryan Strome supplants Okposo on the Isles first line, the latter could become expendable.
The Rangers won’t have sufficient cap space to re-sign Yandle, especially when they’ve got RFAs like Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller to re-sign. Plekanec’s future with the Candiens depends upon if he’s willing to accept a short-term deal for around the same salary as he’s currently making.
Talbot’s future with the Oilers depends upon his performance this season. Campbell will have to accept a pay cut to stay in Florida. Vrbata is unlikely to fit into the Canucks long-term plans. I also don’t think Coburn fits into the Lightning’s future over the long haul, especially when young stars like Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov will be in line for substantial raises within the next couple of years.
If Chi is going to resign Seabrook, then they’ll have to move some money out. Shaw is an rfa next season and there isn’t enough money coming off the books. I would think Seabrook would want an increase. The biggest unknown is the Canadian dollar, if it stays where its at or goes lower, I don’t see the cap going up, could but a bind on teams that were hoping to see an increase.
You can have Yandle…overrated and cost the Rangers way too much to obtain. Rangers need to trade him at the deadline for at the very least a prospect and a pick.
And thank God Boyle will be gone after this season as well. Two slugs out there.
Whether or not NY gave up too much for Yandle remains to be seen. As of today NY gave up a prospect, a (lottery protected) 1st rounder and J. Moore. But Yandle was far and above the actual best player in that deal…..I think that often gets lost in this conversation. I agree with you on Boyle, but these guys were also 4 and 5 in post season scoring this year. Yandle playing hurt from the 1st round out. Calling Yandle a “slug” maybe a bit of a stretch. And I think everyone here knows how I feel about offensive d-men overall. Considering his current cap hit, NY did not kill this deal at all imo.
as you stated its to early to say if the Rangers paid too much for Yandle. Yes today Yandle is the best player in the trade, will he be the best player in the trade won’t be answered for a few more seasons.
There are other factors other than just the players that moved. Yandle was instrumental in NYR making the Stanley Cup finals. He lead the team both in points; only :07 seconds more PP per game less than McDonaugh, & plus minus in the playoffs for Dman averaging 18 minutes; 6th worst on the team, but only 2:30 a game less than Staal having to carry Boyle on the 3rd pairing. How Yandle finished plus 8 & Boyle minus 3 is an oddity, his primary partner. Stall was the worst at -8. I know this isn’t a perfect stat but the fact that Yandle was on the ice for 16 more even strength goals than Staal is telling anyway you slice it regardless of quality of competition, that’s almost a goal per game!
The other significant factor is salary. NYR got Yandle for a 1/4 of the regular season; 21 games,, all of last seasons playoffs & potentially all if this season baring trade at 2.625 prorated for last season’s quarter season obviously. That has to have cost something in the trade value but as far harder to put your finger on comparing assets.
I think Vigneault will tweak the pairings this season having more time to integrate Yandle in fully. Yandle could play on my team anytime, warts & all. He is 1 of the best offensive Dman in the entire NHL. For Damn he is 2nd in scoring over the last 5 years, 5th over the last 4, 3rd over the last 3 & 5th over the last 2 & 9th last season.
The Canadian dollar isn’t going up anytime soon & I’m talking 5 plus years. I assume we all remember when the dollar hovered between 62 & 70 cents for well over a decade, closer to 62 for the majority of that time frame, oil traded between 19 to 25! The glut of oil on the market at current consumption rates which are declining due to a down turn in China’s economy, is 3 & a 1/2 years to re-balance supply to demand. Credit-Suisse, a world wide financial conglomerate is projecting a 74 cent dollar for 2016 with downside pressure.
As for what NYR may or may not do as it relates to Yandle I don’t have a clue. What I do know is they have 53.5 million committed to 6F 4D & 1G for 2016-17. Of the players mentioned by Lyle none are looking at home run raises accept for possibly Kreider. Neither Hayes, Etem & Miller are looking at significant raises baring a breakthrough this season offensively. 1 of these players Hayes or Miller is going to get a top 6 role or it may be shared over the course of the season.
What we do know is Hayes is heading to RW & as a C last season he had slightly more icetime than Miller but Miller got better quality minutes & by year end was Zuccarello’s replacement with Brassard & Nash. It’s possible Hayes may get the #2 RW spot & Miller plays as the #3 but gets better quality power playtime. It would be to NYR’s long term financial advantage to make sure neither of these players steps up to significantly offensively this season as long as it doesn’t impact their ability to win games & balancing their respective opportunities is probably a positive in that regard.
What is obvious is that paying Lundqvist 1 of the best goalies in the game 8.5 million per isn’t good cap management & is applying significant pressure to NYR’s cap & with 6 more seasons has a long way to go. Stats show that you don’t need to pay a goalie so much money to be a really good team.
I will be surprised in Stamkos is unsigned at the start of the coming season. I think the Bolts know what Stamkos wants; it’s all a matter of how they factor in the other core players who will be due for raises in the next few years.
Off subject – the Ryan O’Rielly contract may be the worse contract in Buffalo sports history. Gave up too much fore him, as they did for Lehrer and Evander Kane. Hope Tim Murray can scout better than he can trade.
Wow worst in Sabres history, ever heard of Ville Leino? Murray gave up a spoiled dman who forced his way onto the NHL roster by way of KHL blackmail grigorenko who, with the drafting of eichel and reinhart had no place in Buffalo any more and compher and the second round pick aren’t that great to start with, they also picked up mcginn which is a solid “throw in”. And maybe he did pay too much for lehner, but if he meets his potential no one is complaining, cant win every trade you make. Save your critisim for when it actually matters, when we see what these new players do. And to the contract value, when jeff petry gets 5.5 mill a year I think ROR is worth more to his team then a middling pair dman, its what the market dictates unfortunately.
I disagree on the trades to a large extent but not completely.
Zadorov, Grigorenko, Compher & a 2015 2nd, 31st overall later moved to SJ, drafted Roy, for O’Reilly & McGinn; the good McGinn, ha-ha! Yes he was overpaid we all agree but Grigorenko was done in Buffalo & is suspect now as opposed to a prospect. Zadorov appears to have maturity issues but is young. He was suspended twice last season lets hope he’s not another flaky eastern European. Essentially prospects & a 2nd for what might be the 2nd best 2 way #2C in the league. Bergeron being #1.
They may have overpaid for Lehner but Buffalo took on Legwand’s 3 million cap hit; 3.5 real money, & that needs to factor in some how. With the 21st pick Buffalo acquired from NYI, Ottawa selected White.
As for the Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux & a 2015 1st, 25th overall, Buffalo acquired from StL, Winnipeg selected Raslovic. Buffalo got Bogosian, Kane & Kasdorf. I consider Bogosian & Myers to almost be a wash but time will tell. Stafford wasn’t resigning, Armia & Lemieux are suspects & Buffalo got Kane.
Lets not forget that Buffalo could afford to expend the picks having stock piled so many in previous deals, Vanek, Pominville, Moulson, etc. They also moved, Neuvurth for a 3rd, Enroth for a 3rd, Stewart for a 2nd, Flynn for a 5th & Mitchell for a 7th.
Time will tell if Buffalo won or lost these trades as many of these picks are in future seasons as well & these suspect/prospects will need years before we know what they are or aren’t.
Regardless I think Murray has traded very well.
I would disagree with you about the Kane trade at this point. I like what Buffalo got. If Bogo can stay healthy he is a better all around player then Mayers. Mayers for my liking is too soft. The other key factor is b making the trade when they did it gave Buffalo better odds of finishing last (Kane hasn’t played a game for buffalo) and guaranteeing them one of Mcdavid or Eichel. If they finished 3rd last they wouldn’t get either one of them
Cape – I hope that the last time we have to talk about the Sabres finishing last – in my lifetime.
I can assure you that Bogo will never stay healthy for a full season, guy is made of glass. WPG hosed BUF on this deal. Give it a season or two and you’ll see what Kane is really like… 3rd liner with a superstar ego.
If you want a player to assure you team will finish lower in the standings , Evander Kane was an excellent choice. He can do it next year too.
thanks for your feedback guys. Thought I would toss that stuff out there cuz i haven’t been too engaged lately. Good feedback. Leino and Erhoff we huge Darcy mistakes, I expect better from Tim; if you pay O’Reilly $52.5M, you better get set to pay Eichwel and Reinhardt alot more.
If Lemieux is suspect then we have to assume Tim’s scouting is suspect, since he picked him 32st overall last season. I actually like Bogo better than Myers, tyler is as good as he’s gonna get and he is soft in his own end.
I didn`t think Ehrhoff played that bad in Buffalo.
Sabres were already on the downward spiral when Erhoff got there. he did not play poorly, but his talents were wasted on a bad team.
Darcy finally had money – spent the money on two players who were not in a position to help the team at that time.
Play badly – no
poor signing – yes
Lemieux had publicly said he wasn’t signing in buffalo so that’s good riddance I agree that ror is overpaid but who in pro sports isn’t lol I don’t think the sabres have a world beating team but to disregard what Murray has done in just two seasons with this team in the mess darcy left it I’d say he’s done very well like another poster said Murray had so many pics and prospects he had to deal some quantity to get quality. Just food for thought does ROR get that contract if Calgary doesn’t offer him the rediculous 6 mill offer sheet?
I still do not know why Lemieux took that posture, do you?
Not sure, I think ROR is a 200 foot player. But $52 mil is a ton for a guy who isn’t gonna light up the scoreboard. I will be retired by the time this guy’s deal is done. Lotta guys overpaid, but let them be on other teams.
We all know what Darcy did to the Sabres. Murray has had free reign to do whatever he needs to no nobody peaking over his shoulder. Let’s talk again around Christmas and see where this team is at.
Lehrer not worth a number one, that is for certain.
Ya agree about Leher but if he bounces back won’t be an issue yes it’s an if but no matter what u gotta like that TM has the stones to make the moves
Bruins don’t spend another dime they’ll have around 21 mil to spend next offseason
Agree Eriksson and Kelly bye bye.
Move Chara at the deadline and go after some of these guys.
Seabrook and Byfuglien to replace Chara and Siedenberg
Hell bring Lucic back.
good article lyle
Do you do requests?
how about one on up & coming prospects or next seasons draft