NHL Rumor Mill – February 28, 2018

by | Feb 28, 2018 | Rumors | 71 comments

Continuing fallout from the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline involving Erik Karlsson, Max Pacioretty and more in today’s rumor mill.


OTTAWA SUN: Bruce Garrioch reports Senators captain Erik Karlsson told reporters yesterday he was happy he wasn’t dealt at Monday’s NHL trade deadline. He also said he’s open to the idea of signing a long-term contract extension with the team. He’s eligible next summer to become an unrestricted free agent. The earliest the Senators can open contract discussions with him is July 1. Karlsson said he never asked to be traded and doesn’t want to move.

TSN: Jeff O’Neill wonders why Karlsson didn’t express those views before the trade deadline. Dave Poulin noted Karlsson’s comments earlier this season about seeking top dollar on his next contract and doubts there’s a fit in Ottawa. O’Neill doesn’t believe Senators owner Eugen Melnyk will pay it. Bob McKenzie points out the Senators talked seriously about possibly trading Karlsson and feels they’ll try it again at the 2018 NHL Draft. If he’s still with the Senators by July 1, that’s when contract talks will begin but that could become a messy business.

FANRAG SPORTS NETWORK: Chris Nichols cites Darren Dreger yesterday telling Montreal’s TSN 690 he doubts Karlsson will re-sign with the Senators. He feels the situation has gone down a road of no return. He also noted the Vegas Golden Knights’ attempt to acquire Karlsson at the trade deadline.While they make a substantial offer, Dreger said Ottawa sources suggest it wasn’t that close.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I agree with the TSN panelists. Things will have to shift dramatically (a massive injection of talent or Melnyk sells the team) for Karlsson to stay long-term with the Senators. I realize that’s not what most Senators fans want to hear, but I think Karlsson’s days in Ottawa are numbered. Melnyk will never pay top dollar ($12 million? $13 million?) per season for Karlsson.

GM Pierre Dorion’s rather cryptic remark post-deadline about trying to re-sign Karlsson on July 1 “if he’s still here” speaks volumes. As McKenzie pointed out, they listened to trade offers leading up to deadline day and they’ll listen again at the draft, when there will be more teams flush with extra salary-cap dollars willing to pursue a superstar like Karlsson. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Golden Knights revisit their interest in him this summer. 

Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty was relieved he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline (Photo via NHL Images).


SPORTSNET: Eric Engels reports Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty told the media yesterday he was relieved that he wasn’t moved at Monday’s trade deadline. He said he never asked to be traded and insists he wants to stay in Montreal and try to be part of the solution to their current problems.

FANRAG SPORTS NETWORK: Chris Nichols cites NHL insider Darren Dreger telling Montreal’s TSN 690 that it didn’t sound as though the Montreal Canadiens were close to moving left wing Max Pacioretty before Monday’s trade deadline. Dreger said there was a hig level of interest in the Habs captain but the teams he spoke with said the asking price was “ridiculous”. Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin sought a good young No. 2 center as part of the return. Dreger believed Bergevin might have better luck in the offseason. While Pacioretty didn’t formally request a trade, Dreger thinks the Canadiens captain would’ve welcomed a move.

CALGARY SUN: Eric Francis reports Pacioretty and his teammate Brendan Gallagher were among the players the Flames looked into prior to Monday’s trade deadline. The Flames passed on making expensive acquisitions and instead acquired forward Nick Shore from Ottawa and plucked winger Chris Stewart off waivers from the Minnesota Wild.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Pacioretty is among the few Canadiens who live year-round in Montreal. I don’t doubt his sincerity to help the club and his relief over not being moved by the deadline. Still, his future with the Habs remains in doubt. He’s a year away from eligibility for unrestricted free agency and will seek a substantial raise over his current $4.5-million annual cap hit.

Pacioretty is probably the Canadiens’ best trade chip heading into the offseason, lacking no-trade protection in his contract. If there’s an opportunity for Bergevin to acquire a good young top-six center this summer, I believe Pacioretty will be dealt.

As for the Flames interest in Gallagher, I don’t doubt they probably inquired but I don’t see the Habs moving him. Gallagher’s been among the few bright spots in an otherwise horrible season. Bergevin sees him as a core player. 


MLIVE.COM: Ansar Khan reports Mike Green’s neck injury prevented the Detroit Red Wings from moving him at the trade deadline. There were several teams interested in him but they were concerned his injury might flare up again. Khan noted a few clubs, including Toronto, had some interest in forward Luke Glendening. They didn’t receive any offers for winger Gustav Nyquist, who has no-trade protection. Despite some speculation, the Wings have no interest in moving forward Andreas Athanasiou. 

Khan also reports the Red Wings are interested in re-signing Green, who’s due to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Green acknowledged he’s had some discussions with management and expects they’ll have more. 

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Interesting that there was no interest in Nyquist, though his full no-trade likely played a part in that. Ditto his $4.75-million annual cap hit through 2018-19, though in real salary (as per Cap Friendly) he’ll earned $5.5 million next season.

Athanasiou is a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration rights, which is what sparked the trade conjecture about him leading up to the trade deadline. His previous contract negotiations were quite messy, resulting in an ill-advised holdout that culminated in his one-year worth over $1.3 million. It’ll be interesting to see how things go between the two sides this summer. 



  1. Don’t understand the negative feedback from many Rangers fans. When Bolt signed Girardi, they were laughing, and down on his partner as well. But this overworked Dman brought back two high picks and two top prospects. And Rangers fans should not underrate Namesmitkov.
    Hated losing Vladdy, 27th overall,he has worked hard, & is a good guy. But although he is a solid NHL center, his numbers are a bit inflated on the Bolts. But,He will be of immense value to the Rangers, as he will take on any role, any minutes, always give 100%, be a great community guy, great teammate, and win more games than he loses.
    He defends, and will drop them for a teammate if required. He may not be quite the scorer he’s shown this year, but he will be a rock for the Rangers as they bring in a boatload of youngsters….a Brian Boyle role if you will. Watch the fans reaction the first time he returns to Tampa for a better measure of his value than just point production. Having Yzerman as GM and Vinick as owner is a blessing. I had the same seats in 2004 as I have now, and am looking forward to a run this year, and next. But I am not looking forward to playing the Rangers 2-3 years out, even less if than can replace Kenrick. NY fans should be pretty happy, I think, at least as happy as they can ever be. And, they’ve got the Yankees for the off-season.

    • I don’t know many NYR fans but the few I know & those that post to the sites I read aren’t unhappy or negative. Most are still in shock with the direction NYR has chosen like myself but once past that when looking at each trade long term are very happy.

      Namestnikov will be a 20 to 25 goal & 50 to 55 point player in NYR next season & he may have a better top end in him. He can play any forward position & is a very effective 2 way C when deployed as such.

      Namestnikov had to battle Cooper for every shift he got & that meant learning to be a complete NHL player. Still a little raw defensively but a willing learner.

      • You know what Ranger fan isn’t shocked? This guy!

        Anyone shocked by this wasn’t really pay close attention to the last year plus.

      • I just had NYR far better than you in the short term, nor did I feel they needed to significantly retool. Gorton had a terrible summer. I think buying out Girardi was a huge mistake & signing Smith just compounded that problem costing they even more money factoring both salary & cap hit.

        Not filling the #3 C spot & Vigneault’s unwillingness to play the right players specifically the young players Buchnevich & Skjei but others as well coupled with the loss of Kredier doomed this season.

        Now that I have accepted all of those things I really like what Gorton just pulled off. NYR could bounce back significantly next season & have all these assets just acquired developing. Curious to see if the rumours of Nash & possibly Grabner returning will play out this summer & if not even with all the players due contracts what NYR does with their cap space.

      • Nash not coming back. He’ll be 34 next season and will still want 4-5 mil. Not happening on a team looking to get younger. Maybe Grabner. He’s in incredible shape for his age and hasn’t lost a step. Would probably sign a reasonable deal.

  2. Did you copy and paste this from yesterday? Hahaha

    • Yeah, I’m in love with the sound of my own voice..
      Not exactly, but writing within the website has become painfully slow, so I’m pasting from notepad. With my annoying several hockey blogs, I sometimes replicate.
      And since there are darn near as many New York fans in Tampa as Tampa fans ( and Lightning fans who have a Ranger’s sweater that they wear when the blue shirts are here)we have a lot of interaction.
      Hey, It’s nice to see that you are paying attention.

      • I was just messing around. Back in the late 90s early 2000’s you could barely find a Tampa jersey at a game!

        I think Tampa has one more regular season game against NY coming up. I doubt I’ll make it. But I’m definitely going to try and see some playoff games.

        Maybe we can meet at Hattricks and get drunk to post some lopsided trade proposals here!

      • 330,A,13
        I’m most always there.

  3. NY Rangers trade Nash and McDonagh, as most people r saying Miller and Namestnikov r a wash. The only NHL ready player they brought back is Spooner, sure if u want to say Belesky.
    The draft picks and prospects could be excellent or they might not be. Nhl draft is littered with high end draft picks, successful in the CHL or College but not so much in the NHL. I’m surprised that the Rangers were not able to bring back a better return for RM, I think they did very well on the Nick Holden and Nash deals, but not so much on the McDonagh.
    McDonagh with a year left on his contract should’ve brought back a young establish player that is still projecting.

    • Hamilton moved for a 1st & 2 2nds. It was a contract dispute, Bos had cap issues & Hamilton was coming out of his ELC as an RFA so still 4 years from UFA status.

      McDonagh moved for a 1st, conditional 2nd, Howden; drafted 27th over all in 2016 & Hajek; 37th overall in 2016, a very high 2nd round pick. That’s 2 1sts & 2 2nds if you prefer but knowing how 1 of the 1st; Howden, & 2nds; Hajek, continued to develop since being drafted 2 years ago. McDonagh is a UFA at the end of the 2018-19 season. A little over 1 year from UFA status, that should reduce his value compared to say a player like Hamilton that was an RFA for 4 more years.

      For me NYR did better than Boston, & NYR didn’t take 2 draft picks but 2 players drafted 2 years ago who have continued to develop & now can be far better projected as NHL players. Both these assets will be NHL players, they have shown at the highest levels since being drafted they are exceptional tallents.

      Both these players will be solid NHL players, Howden a 1st or 2nd line C & Hajek at least a 2nd pairing Dman when fully developed.

      McDonagh will be extended by TB on July 1st. I’m surprised that 1 of the conditions placed on that 2nd becoming a 1st wasn’t if extended as well.

      For me NYR can’t lose this trade long term factoring in what this trade did on the business side of the ledger especially as it relates to the next round of expansion but with all that cap space NYR will have available this summer as well.

  4. Over the last year, we’ve seen some pretty big dollar deals happen. Price, Mcdavid, Drasaitl, Eichel. Going back a little further, Kane , Toews , Ekblad, Yandle etc..

    What do these players / teams all have in common right now? Que the jeopardy theme …. now.

    I think Karlsson will be traded. I know his comments about max dollars would scare me out of that race.

    • Exactly NYR, which is why they are shopping him, oh sorry I mean “listening to offers”. That is what started this, actually Doughty saying he would discuss with Karlsson during his negotiation is what started the questions in OTT and it became public.
      I think it would be crazy to sign him to 7 years at $10M, let alone 12 or 13. Great player but is in the back nine of his prime. Karlsson is a great player but will not get better than he is today, the decline will start in approx 3 years, if not sooner due to injuries.
      At least with McDavid, Eichel Draisaitl they are just about to enter their prime years and their best years are ahead of them.

      • “If he’s still here we’re going to try an re-sign him”

        Lmao! Now there’s a ringing endorsement!

      • Well sure Chicago is loving giving a 10.5M cap hit to Kane and Toews :). Out of those 2 only maybe Kane somebody can try to justify is worth that or has lived up to it. Kopitar was awful his first season making 10M… Oilers miss the playoffs before the massive insane contract of McDavid kicks in… PRice looking at the prospect of winning a draft lottery not a Cup :). Nobody can win or compete giving out these kinda contracts… Even King Henrik w/ his 8.5M cap hit is sitting in the cellar of MEtro :).

        King Karl can be like well I asked for 15M a season over 8 years but they didn’t think I was worth the investment ;). I just hope if its a team I like that gives him 7 years 12M or whatever its structured so can buyout in 6th year or so like Kopitar was :). HE isn’t going to say anything bad about the team or owner… He will say how great it was, that thought they could win a Cup, came close but it wasn’t in the cards… If he was trashing the owner/team he wouldn’t get as much money or interest when he walks as a UFA leaving Ottawa with nothing but memories and quotes ;).

    • More teams will follow. How does one stay competitive in the salary cap world when forced to pay their homegrown talent while trying to shuffle off the bad contracts to the other teams you’ve accumulated along the way. Toronto will experience this shortly with their young group coming off of ELC’s. Other than Pittsburg who have managed to have a dynasty type run, when was the last team to do so? Chicago, Detroit? who are now experiencing the build back to glory. The next lockout will have many issues and it will likely start with 30% rollback in salaries and any guess on over/under 5-6 compliance buyouts?

      • Not all teams are overpaying & handcuffing themselves, numerous teams play hardball with their players & get them to accept fair market value using the leverage when they have it. Unfortunately the NHL is based on comparables & when teams go out & set new thresholds it pulls the salaries up for everyone.

        You are some what correct. The players will be taking a roll back really a realignment of escrow in the next CBA as the players share of HRR is going to decline from the current 50/50 split to something more along the lines of 50/47 in favor of the NHL.

        That said HRR is going to become far more comprehensive, expansion revenue will be added but the NHL won’t be expanding again for a very long time & the players will want guarantee’s for the Olympics. The NHL will win the battle as they always do as they are trying to create fiscal sanity allowing for all teams to profit & more most not tied to having to make the playoffs to do so.

        We will also get significantly better revenue sharing, the current system has improved in each of the last 2 lockouts but is still a joke. NYR makes more money than the bottom 15 revenue earners combined & that’s only on HRR as defined today. MSG sports & entertainment makes a fortune broadcasting NYR games & the actual hockey team only see’s a portion of that profit, a significant portion but chump change compared to what’s being hauled in.

      • Well put Striker. I do agree, however the teams that aren’t handcuffing themselves haven’t yet, they’re team name starts with ARI and ends in ZONA or they don’t plan on winning anytime soon. You’ll likely know this quicker than it would take me to look up, but how many teams in the NHL have a 1/3 of their cap tied up in 3-5 players?

      • In this years cap hit or next years?

        Very few in either scenario but there are a few & 3 to 5 is far to significant a swing. 5 is 66.6% repeating more than 3. Ha-ha!

        I’m concerned for teams like Edm who have 21 tied up in 2 players starting next season, LA will soon join them.

        I don’t include Chi or Pit as both had the luxury of amortizing Crosby in Pit & Hossa & Keith in Chi over far longer terms than the 8 years available today although Chi did tie up 21 mil in Kane & Toews signing both to matching extensions in July of 2014, kicking in following the 2014-15 season.

        if not for Hossa’s & Keith’s cap hits that wouldn’t have even been a consideration & we can all see the effect that those contracts are now having on Chi, & that’s with designating Hossa to Robidas/Lupul island.

        You can’t flush out an NHL roster properly & deeply enough spending that much of your cap space on so few players. Not enough money left to pay the 2nd & 3rd liners & 4/5 Dman needed to really be a cup contender.

        Chi & PIT still have the benefit of having manipulated their caps under different cap rules & will continue to do so for many more years. Keith’s contract still has 5 years to go Crosby’s 7. If those 2 deals had been limited to 8 years those cap hits would have been significantly higher. Crosby at 12+ & Keith at or near 8 at the point of signing.

      • You don’t give out bad contracts :). The next CBA needs to have a 1/3rd buyout also able to absorb the entire cap hit in a year or two so not stuck like Mike Richards for next decade… EAch team should have 2 amnesty buyouts they can use until the next CBA… They need to limit the max contract value to less than or equal to salary cap. If the Cap is 80M you can’t give a person a contract worth 100M for example… That will least cap the max value/length that can load up on. Right now any idiot can ask for any price they want w/ nothing to show the value. Its like don’t need to score 30-50 goals to get 10-15M in cap hit. If able to push enough propaganda to inflate value or make seem need to keep its easy to cash out :).

        Best way to win is play hardball… Oilers blew it w/ McDavid paying him vastly more than he is worth… He reminds me of Doug Weight who had his 100 point year or whatever on Oilers… McDavid had 1 good year, never scored 40 goals, isn’t even better than Austin Matthews or whatever the guys name is on Toronto. So next decade Oilers wont win anything, they made playoffs because of Talbot playing over 80 games including post season not McDavid haha ;). NOw that he has fallen down a bit they can’t even finish ahead of an expansion team in Vegas ;).

      • Matthews is not even close to McDavid, we are talking about a guy with 70 assists and 100 points vs a center who gets 30 assists. Matthews is great but he couldn’t hold McDavids jock.

  5. As always the earliest Ott can sign Karlsson is July 1st, they can start talking to him when ever they like.

    Do we think players that sign contracts on July 1st just negotiated everything in 1 day? Even UFA’s are allowed to start talking to teams a week before July 1st but if signing extensions with the team you play for & with 1 year remaining those discussions can start when ever.

  6. Erik is a great defenseman but any team paying him over 7 million for more than 6 years is praying the cap climbs dramatically. One great player on a team doesn’t bring any team the cup. Crosby understood this and took a contract that Pittsburgh could still bring in a handful of high end help. Boston has Bergeron Marchand and Pasta for around 6.5 million a year. Oilers will have trouble filling out a roster for years with 21 million being paid to two players.

    • Crosbys deal can’t be compared. His deal and a bunch of others wouldn’t be allowed in today’s Cba.

      Crosbys overall deal today would be an aav of 13 per.

      One more way the NHL has punished other teams for not laying out 10-12+ year deals and being fiscally responsible.

    • You can’t compare a contract signed in a previous cap world in a league that played more of a 2 line offensive game than today’s 3 even 4 line systems. The salaries for mid lines players has jumped significantly due to spreading what goals & points are generated over a much larger body of players.

      It’s not just the decline in scoring from the glory years but the fact what few goals are being scored are being spread over 35 to 40% more players.

      Crosby’s deal was signed over 12 years, no contract can be longer than 8 today. Not even remotely comparable.

  7. If the owner does not want to pay the salary then the player will be dealt. I am not sure how I feel about Melnyk as an owner, but he does have the right to refuse to pay a salary he cannot justify. However, he runs the risk of being unable to attract top-level talent if it is perceived that he is cheap. It’s not fair in a cap era to label a manager as cheap as they all have to spend a minimum. So Melnyk may need to become comfortable in icing a “lunch pail” type team every year to use a Don Cherryism!

    • I’m sort of in the same position. I don’t begrudge teams that don’t have the same revenue streams to choose to manage their teams to be profitable in & of themselves.

      Once Ott relocates downtown their revenue streams will improve significantly. Don’t think Melneyk isn’t making a solid return though, not directed at you Steven just on subject. Yes ticket sales are down but this team is still in the top 1/2 of the NHL for operating revenue.

      I think the business decisions Ott has made this season will have an extremely negative impact on season ticket sales.

      I never felt Karlsson, Duchene or Brassard could be extended or would choose to stay in Ott if they could choose to go elsewhere & have been stating such for sometime, nor did trading for Duchene a UFA following the 2018-19 season make sense to me.

      These players can get as good or better money from numerous NHL teams as UFA’s & go to teams that are cup contenders. Now Ott won’t even get for Duchene what they paid for him & God forbid Ott’s 1st next season becomes the 1st overall selection.

      This organization is a mess & it starts at the very top. The NHL must have been cringing when during Ott’s outdoor game Melneyk was throwing gas on the situation. I have supported Melnyk many times, as it’s his team to do with as he chooses but he has no 1 to blame but himself for the mess of his own creation.

      • Agreed Striker. He does not do himself any favors in regards to public relations. Nothing wrong with being honest about not wanting to pay but at least make some sound trades and acquisitions with the players you have. How anybody can create a team with attendance issues in Canada is beyond me. It also seems odd to have, relativley, the same team as last year and be missing the playoffs. This team last year missed the Finals by a game!

  8. What can one expect from drafting 29th and 30th in the NHL draft. From 2014-2017 there is only one player with anything of substance in the NHL Adrian Kempe drafted by LA 29th in 2014 he has played the most with 88 games 18g 19a for 37pts.
    One could argue and rightfully so, that it’s to early to say because some of these picks are still developing. Lets look at the years from 2008 to 2013 and see how NHL teams faired with the last two picks of the first round:

    2008 29th Atlanta Daulton Leveille 0-0-0-0
    30th Detroit Tom MaCallum 3gp 0-0

    2009 29th TB Carter Ashton 54gp 0g 3a
    30th Pitts Simon Depres 193gp 6g 37pts

    2010 29th Ana Emerson Etem 173gp 22g 24a
    30th NYI Brock Nelson 379gp 94g 84a

    2011 29th Van Nicklas Jensen 31gp 3g 3a
    30th Ana Rickard Rakell 295gp 87g 93a

    2012 29th NJ Stepan Matteau 64gp 3g 4a
    30th LA Tanner Pearson 290gp 64g 69a

    2013 29th Dal Jason Dickerson 24gp 3g 0a
    30th Chi Ryan Hartman 142gp 28g 30a

    12 players over 6 years with varying degrees of success, what we can say is there is 6 players or 50% that have not made it or little to no impact. A few good finds in Nelson, Rakell and Pearson.
    If anything the history of the draft shows us late first round picks doesn’t necessary translate into success, you have less then 50% chance of getting a quality NHL player. Maybe sometimes we put to much value on a 1st round pick, especially if it’s projected to be a late 1st round pick.

    • You could make the same case for the early part of Round one over the years Caper. Granted not 50%/50% but maybe 65%/35%??? Just a guess.

    • Even going back to 2000 and expanding to the last six picks in the first round, you definitely have some noteworthy players but a majority are marginal player or outright busts.

      A few notables though are Justin Williams, Steve Ott, Nik Kronwall (29th), Cam Ward, Corey Perry, Corey Schneider, Mike Green, Matt Niskanen, Nick Foligno, David Perron, John Carlson, after that only Pastrnak (25th) has really established himself as an all-star level player.

      Definitely some solid talent there, but certainly proves there is no guarantee with a first round pick.

    • The top 3 is where you find your superstars, no surprise there.
      1 team in the last 20 plus years has won the cup without a top 3 pick on their roster. Carolina.
      So what this means is tanking won’t guarantee success, but not having a top 3 pick on your team will almost guarantee you don’t win a cup.

      • You can get great value outside the 1st round guys like PK Subban, Quick, just the top few picks are supposed to be better… Or they should have a higher percentage that pans out… I can think of many who busted in the top 5 while those taken later in 1st rounder or later rounds did great… Lucky Luc Robitaille, Kimmo Timonen just to name a few Kings took… I think Luc was like 171st, Kimmo might have been like a 12th rounder they traded him to keep Gary Galley :)… HIckey was like a top 5 who ended up claimed on Waivers by the Islanders… YOu see a lot of guys who busted or the game changed making them worthless basically :).

      • So the Wings aren’t on the list of teams that won without a top 3 pick because they had Brad Stuart on their roster? I mean seriously, they didn’t even draft him and it’s not like he was even a top player for them. He was a good 2nd pairing guy but they didn’t win a cup just because they had him.

    • Mike Rupp was taken 9th overall… the draft isn’t necessarily all about finding top 6 forwards and top 4 d-men…

      Lmao! I use Mike Rupp as a bad example a lot! Cup clinching goal, Cup winner, 1st round draft pick…

      • Yakapov, another shining example! Yak is a great name for this guy. He probably makes a lot of Edmonton fans yak in their mouth.

      • And how many of even the greatest players can claim a Cup clinching goal!

      • Mike Rupp won the Winter Classic for the Rangers =) I remember that goal vividly.

      • 2 goals if I’m not mistaken!
        Maybe I should stop making fun of him?

    • I agree, these picks have way less value than people perceive but I also agree with, I believe it was Chrisms, who stated that having more gives you a far better chance. NYR may use these picks, they may trade some of them for players or to trade up. Simply assets.

      The quality of NHL players is also improving not sure how to factor that in yet & some teams are far better at drafting later than most. I don’t think we can just look at the 29th, 30 or now 31st picks, I think you need to look at picks in groups of 5’s at the top end 10’s by the middle & 20+ that late in the draft.

      • Getting better, yet in the pass 5yrs only one player from the last two picks has made it to the NHL.
        Absolutely you could trade them picks, from something else. I suppose when I buy more lottery tickets I have a better chance of winning. That doesn’t change the fact if your getting the last two picks of the round, your odds of getting anything of substance is 50%. This is why I think the Rangers should have done better then they did in the McDonagh trade.

      • I get you’re case, but what’s to say they just didn’t make the right selection?

        2008 guys NOT drafted in the 1st round.
        Voynov 2nd round 32nd overall
        Josi 2nd round 38th overall

        Others in that same 2nd round,
        Stepan, Scandella, Hamonic, Shultz.

        2nd round guys past in the 1st

        According to stats, a player picked in the 1st round historically have a 45% chance of being an NHL player. Not necessarily an elite player, but finds a home in the NHL. Those are not horrible odds. Ny has 2 shots at 45%? Statistics say one of them probably makes it.

      • Teams have to know what they are good at. Some draft and develop well (and usually have one or two key execs whose skills are more art than science) some trade well, and some fail consistently and should be retooling in the executive suite. Because many draft picks don’t pan out, I’d think that for most organizations they are tradeable assets. And for pros…there are a lot of junior and college scorers who play relatively pointless in the NHL. Patience is perhaps the rarest and most underrated asset in NHL executive suites.

      • Most player drafted 5 years ago especially in the later rounds are just starting to get a cup of coffee in the NHL. 2013 Ryan Hartman drafted 30th just cutting his teeth in the NHL Dickinson taken 29th in Dallas has had nothing more than a cup of coffee. Look at guys taken early in the 2nd round 5 drafts ago in 2013.

        Erne is just now getting some NHL time, Compher just started his rookie season in the NHL, etc..

        Again you can’t just look at 29, 30, or 31. Well you can if you want but I’m not willing to, you have the top 3, sometimes the top 5 in a really good draft year, then 4 or 6 through 9 or 11 is a coin toss, move deeper & picks 12 through 22 are a wash by the time you get to 23 the difference from 43 is negligible at best. Drafting 17 or very soon to be 18 year old kids this deep is a crap shoot.

        I agree with you these draft picks don’t have as great a value as most perceive but as it relates to the trade of McDonagh NYR didn’t just take draft picks they took 2 stud prospects drafted 2 years ago who just played at the highest level an under 20 player can & played extremely well against their peers.

        Howden tied for 2nd in goals & points for Canada at the WJC’s, his +11 best in the tournament dwarfed any other Canadian player. Hajek was 2nd for points on the Czech team, his 6 points good for 2nd to Makar with 7, his 5 assists tied Dahlin for Dman & was good for a tie for 5th for all skaters his 6 points a tie for 17th for all skaters.

        These are 2 stud prospects with incredibly bright futures & both have great size, Howden is 6’3″ 190lbs, by 25 he should be playing at about 215 to 225, Hajek 6’2″ 196lbs, he should hit 210. These 2 players dominated the world stage against the vast majority of the best under 20 players in the world.

        Can you spell can’t miss. Ha-ha! Lets revisit this trade in 2021-22 for Howden & 2025-26 for Hajek. The draft picks NYR received are almost pure gravy.

      • NYR Kings could have had King Karl in that draft over Voynov… IF I recall he went in the second round as well :). Another reason why I don’t like that Tatar trade. I think Vegas as expansion would have hit on a better player or two in those 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks they had… This will be another one of those Forsberg for Erat type trades :). I wasn’t impressed w/ Tatar against Kings last night personally. I don’t think LAK beat Vegas until they made that awful trade for trash Reaves… One day he played like 7 minutes, took 2 minute hooking penalty that led to PP goal for LA to make it 2-1 which they won game 3-2 after trailed 2-0… Then last night he sucked again hurting Vegas, making it hard for them to roll 4 lines etc… HE played like 9 minutes, got 4 minutes in penalties a totally worthless piece of trash awful trade. Vegas should have squeezed them for King Karl if they wanted him when did the BS to take salary getting Reaves in process :). Even the coach of the year can’t make a diamond from coal like Superman did in that movie :). As Smith said on the Cowboys he was a diamond surrounded by trash to blame his team for his dropped production :)… I think he had -2 yards in a game he played against them as RB after those comments too :).

    • Plus NY has built contenders with and around guys not selected in the 1st round. Stepan, Anisimov, Dubinsky, Callahan, Girardi, Lundqvist, Fast, etc. I’m not particularly worried about them botching up drafts with better picks.

      • I crossed up Williams Karlsson the guy w/ 33+ goals on Vegas w/ King Karl :). Williams was the 2nd round pick 53rd by Ducks… I was confused since I remember Kings took a D-man instead of King Karl… They could have had Drew Doughty, Voynov, King Karl all on the same blue line ;). Kings took Colten Teubert that draft, Bogosian was 3rd overall by Thrashers, while Luke Schenn was 5th to give an idea ;). Atlanta had some bad picks like Patrick Stefan, Islanders had Diepietro, Kings the famous Aki Berg ;). I know they botched a lot of first round picks even when had 2 or 3 in a draft to do it. So I prefer when they trade them away often. Though Pearson worked out alright for an over aged player who was like 30th… Kempe looks good so they improving w/ some of the 1st rounders hopefully.

        You can even sign guys undrafted like Martin Jones I don’t think was drafted but led SJ to SCF :). Many who are drafted that play college seem not avoid signing the ELC then sign as Free Agent. I think Rangers got somebody Hayes was it or some others that way. Kings I know tried to get a few of them but not sure it worked out. I think Jack Johnson they had the rights traded to them so that don’t count. King Henrik wasn’t he like a 6th round pick or something really late ;). Personally I like rounds 2-4 most in a draft for finding players. They might need more time to develop than a 1st overall generational talent. Though hard to ever live up to expectations. Sometimes a guy starts out as a bust like a Ray Whitney I think it was Sharks took. Then he finally learned to get in shape which changed his career path. Unlike Fat Baloon Pat Faloon or whatever hehe :).

    • It seems like the best picks from 2010-2012 were last overall :). Would be interesting to compare Brock Nelson/Rakell/Pearson in those years to the guys taken 1st overall :). This Barzal kid is looking pretty good, there been a lot of solid 2nd round players taken. First round just means that have a lot of expectations which are difficult to achieve regardless. Nice post, agreed on the 3 best players taken in that. Pearson helped Kings win their 2nd cup as a key player when it counted most… Besides being known for that 70’s line :).

    • Caper whats funny is in 2012 the last pick in 1st round Pearson is better than Yakupov who was 1st overall… Oddly those 2010-2012 years it seems like Oilers had the 1st overall pick in each of them… You can even compare Hall along w/ RNH to Rakell along with Brock Nelson. Hall is alright, RNH, though are they really that vastly better than Rakell or Nelson etc… I think its rare the 1st overall pick lives up to the hype. Even when they do they might face injuries or other issues like Stamkos. Its not like anybody is putting up 200 points anymore or 80-100ish goals hehe ;).

  9. 12 or 13 million a year for Karlsson. I doubt that happens, but if someone does do it I’ll bet they’re moaning about how to get out from under it way before it’s over.

    • I wouldn’t go that high on Karlsson or Doughty either. $10M-$11M/year on an 8 year deal is he max I’d offer. They’ll both be 29 when their new contracts kick in and defencemen age much better than forwards. Parise vs. Suter on Minnesota are great examples. Suter is still an elite 1D well into his 30’s and so are Chara and Burns. Parise is an albatross contract now with 7 years left at $7.5M/year. It’s hard to find a worse contract than Bobby Ryan, but that’s one of them.

      I’d have no problem giving Karlsson or Doughty 8 year deals, just not at $12M-$13M. Leaves no room for error and every team has at least one bad contract.

      Edmonton completely screwed up with McDavid and Draisaitl. Window closed before it opened. Lucic’s contract is a disaster and is buyout proof. I’m sure the next CBA will address the signing bonus issue as it prevents teams from buying out a mistake. Stars will expect low salary with high signing bonuses while allowed in the current CBA. David Clarkson started this mess and we can thank Nonis for agreeing to that contract structure.

  10. This question goes out to everyone. If the coyotes decide to move him at the draft. what return does OEL bring back-considering what has just happened.
    2 firsts/top prospect? or more?

    Feedback please.

    • One year left … Cap $5.5 but Sal $7.0; plays 24/25 mins a game ; will prob end up with 40 points (note 2 years ago it was 55)…. the kicker is his +\- he’s approaching -40 and at this pace could potentially be approaching -50 or worse…,value has plummeted …. no question that performance is a product of the who situation and team …. he should increase substantially outside of the desert…. that’s where the sides negotiating have to work out … my sense is prospects will be more valuable to Arz than pics ….my sense is an ask for a current young NHL D (21 or 22) with at least 1 full year experience but clearly on path to a top 2D position in 3-4 years; plus a prospect winger (21 or less) that has had some NHL sniff that has been touted as top 9; plus a first and a second; if Arz eats 50%(not sure if they have the ability left).,,then another 1st or good prospect comes back

  11. Another factor to consider with draft picks is expansion. There are twenty-three more spots for players in the league this year and another twenty-three when Seattle begins play. If we use Vegas as an example, they clearly have people working for them who can identify talent and a coach who has done a great job of turning an entirely new group of NHL castoffs into a Stanley Cup contender in one season – amazing stuff. On the other hand, we have franchises that did not recognize the talent some players had and gave them away for free. Vegas owes the Florida Panthers and others a big “Thank you” for their generosity.
    We’re not talking rocket science here – if a team can identify talent throughout the draft, in college hockey, in the KHL and other European leagues, and if they have coaches in their system who can develop that talent, they can be successful.
    The history of the Leafs’ woes for many, many years is a classic example of a poor organization that drafted badly, had no patience with prospects and, with a few exceptions like 92-93, never rose above mediocrity.
    The current organization seems to have a clue, their draft record is pretty good (and they were really lucky one year), and the developmental system is like night and day compared to previous regimes. They have a proven Head Coach who is in for the long haul and there is every expectation that the Leafs will be competitive year in and year out.
    As I said, it is not rocket science, it is really just a solid, professional sports organization.

    • Well there many factors that were working to help Vegas. Often when NHL would have expansion it would involve more than 1 team at once. So if got 2 teams picking its going to thin out the level of talent. They made the rules in a way making it harder to hide players forcing teams like Sharks to trade Mirco Mueller since couldn’t protect him. The way they make them submit the lists, then allowed Vegas a lot of time to go over or make trades to avoid taking players helped. Though Vegas still botched a lot of their picks, many scored them badly in draft. The protection system meant were going to lose a decent player in most cases and teams. Vegas took too many lefty shot D-men which hurt them. They are not that deep in net unless Dansk pans out it could be bad after Fleury or if he gets hurt. Lagace was real bad, Subban has struggled to point he was on waivers by Boston. Though he has done better on Vegas the bar for his NHL numbers prior was real low ;).

      I think Vegas could get hurt worst by Seattle depending on protection system. Hopefully NHL makes them immune to having to expose any players or so. That would be fair since they just got minor league team or Blues I think gave up their AHL team or something. If can only protect 50% of your d-men or use the 8 skater option its hard to cover all bases. Williams Karlsson was 53rd overall 2nd round pick so wasn’t total shock to see him excel ;). Then teams have players who wont waive NTC/NMC or whatever clauses forcing their hands more. So even if could protect all the players want suddenly have to protect guys you can’t trade or force to let expose.

      Pretty much all the other expansions teams didn’t have that problem. Also many times it was like teams were picking players then could protect another player when lost one. Each team might only have 1 NHL level player or prospect exposed. So if breaking it between 2 teams each is lucky to get half or more of that pie :). Hockey players might have declined in some areas or Russia gets many from KHL. Yet at same time nations like Germany have become better at hockey feeding the pool. You also have more people playing hockey or football or some other sports thinking its safer or from Hockey in Harlem or programs akin to that. Expanding where people play/talent pool helps expansion teams who can give chances to players other teams can’t or wont.

      Expansion can thin out the quality of goalies or backups… Drive up prices on them or make it more likely to sign from other leagues like Tim Thomas who won a cup, Backstrom that came from playing outside NHL to do well when came back or in there. You need 3 or 4 lines now, not a goon line that can only play 5 minutes. That helps find some decent players w/ upside who can become top line players too. College hockey is better now than last time expansion was around. You used to have the Hobey Baker award winner or so be a laughing stock that often failed like a Heisman who didn’t cut it in NFL :).

  12. Looking back over the past month or so, NY actually did better across the board than I expected.

    What I said Nash would get. A 1st a prospect, or a very good prospect.

    Nash landed a 1st Spooner, a prospect and took on Beleskey at 1/2.

    Grabner. I said a 2nd and a prospect. Spot on

    Mcdonagh I said “similar tonYandle. Maybe a bit better”

    Mcdonagh landed A 1st possibly 2. A former 1st, a former 2nd in two prospects. I’ll call Namestikov and Miller a wash.

    That’s more than Yandle received by far! They got a 1st, 2nd , John Moore ( who id have sent him for a 7th) and A former 3rd rounder in Duclair. Duclair since traded, the 1st was traded, and Moore they let walk away.

    For Yandle 1/2 retained for a year plus, Summers, and a 4th.

    My initial shock of Miller included, made me think they should have landed Point or Sergachev.
    But after looking into the details a little further, they did just fine.

    • I think Rangers got a real shot to win draft lottery. It took me a while to think about everything. Yet maybe they saw how things went for Flyers/Devils who managed to land 1-2 in what they view as a weaker draft than this. At worst Rangers probably finish in the bottom 10 or 5. They have 3 1st round picks coming into 2018. Maybe they can package that to get 1st overall or move up to draft a key player. I’d say Sabres along w/ Coyotes have the 2 worst records/least points locked up. AFter them its a race to the bottom hoping to win the next franchise D-man like a Hedman or Doughty or so. If Rangers won the draft lottery or end up w/ 1st overall pick to take that stud D-man… Then I think they can look at this as turning point kinda like when got Brian Leetch or however spells it ;). Overall I think they got a pretty good return after announcing they were selling off :).

    • Thanks striker. You’re always good at pointing out when you’re nearly correct

      • I was also right about Stepan beating Bolland in scoring in Arizona! But I haven’t rubbed that in …. until now!

        In the end it was pretty close race. Stepan has 39 points, leading by a narrow margin of 100% more points than Bollands ZERO!


  13. Just my three cents, or rounded off to a nickel.

    A UFA is eligible to receive a maximum 8 year contract from his team, or 7 max from someone else. So the current team still gets an advantage.

    As an example, if Ottawa offered Karlsson 8 years at 11 million a year that is 88 million over the contract.

    Another team would have to offer 12.5 a year for 7 years to come close to that original offer. Karlsson in his 8th year may not be worth 11 million, so why would any UFA in his right mind give up term?

    If Ottawa offered him market value or close to that, he is not going to get a better deal elsewhere.

    If he was hell bent on getting out of there, he could sign to get longer term and use other team interest to drive the price up but he could easily ask for a trade later.

    This is the reason why I think we may not see many premier pending UFAs go to the market or sign elsewhere.

    Want a more competitive playing field? Get rid of the extra year the current team has to play with so the player can have more power.

    • The problem for King Karl is even after 7 years he might be 35ish… So a team might not want to give him 7 or 8 years… He might be looking at a 5 or 6 year deal. If the current team trades him I’m pretty sure he can still sign for 8 years w/ the “new” team though. He can try to get 90M for 6 years or like 14.2M for 7 :). I think he will try to get 100M for 8 years like 12.5M cap hit.

      BTW the player might not want a long term contract… So he could sign a 2 or 3 year deal w/ a new team… Then try to parlay into a bigger deal with another etc. Teams that are wise structure the contract so they can buy them out… Problem for Oilers is even if McDavid finishes his contract. He will probably still be under 30. So is he going to take a pay cut at that point or find a team who will pay him more etc.

      I’m seeing more deals that are like 5 or 6 year pacts… So being able to give 7 or 8 don’t matter at that point. Like even PEnguins I think they resgined HOrnqvist for a few years… Sharks just gave Dell a 2 year extension for a bit under 2M cap hit I think. Kings gave some bridge type deals to keep Pearson/Toffoli for less than most expected they would cost. I think less teams are going to be willing to do deals longer than 5 or 6 years seeing how the high priced players have not lived up to those hefty contracts. You don’t want to get stuck w/ a Toews or Seabrock type deal as they fade or fail :).

  14. Nyr4life, I would agree with you NYR got a good return on the overall trades.

  15. To Frank …. since EK is not UFA this summer …. and not until July of ’19…. then L believe any team acquiring him at draft or this summer could extend him 8 years

    • I think long as a team has his rights before they can extend… LIke Bishop was traded by Kings… They could have signed him for 8 years since he was under them not a UFA technically. Basically SEnators could even do a sign/trade if those things even exist ;). Where they signed him then traded him as part of the transaction or agreement hehe. I think it might get real bad where might end up w/ Heed for King Karl w/ maybe a draft pick :). They let him talk to all the teams, he picks where he wants to go, then they have to deal him or get nothing :).

  16. The frustrating thing as a Wings fan is the lack of creativity with trading Green. Teams are concerned about Greens health? Link draft round to how many games he plays or is physically eligible to play. Similar to what was done with Mrazek but based on ability to play. Reinsures. Conditional 1st becomes a lower round draft. Wins playoff mvp? More for Wings. Something along those lines. AA is going to bolt. After the negotiations last summer he’s gone. We’ll get nothing for him. Maybe we can use that money to get a formerly great forward who’s well past his prime but is a great character guy. We like characters in Detroit.

    • I think Detroit made out pretty good shipping Tatar to Vegas for 1st/2nd/3rd… All those picks lineup in ways where VEgas probably wont be as good by time the 2nd/3rd rounders are there… So should be better picks than what the 1st round might likely become. They could have got Green in that deal which would have been fair 3 picks for the 2 players. So long a they draft well it could be a real jackpot of players for Tatar. If they wanted to trade Green they should have done it sooner/yanked him out of lineup… Florida has less games played than teams ahead of them… So them keeping Vrbata to go for playoffs is logical… Detroit thought they could make playoffs over Islanders, Carolina, CBJ, even Florida, which just wasn’t realistic… If they fully pulled plug sooner like Rangers who were like 2 points out of spot at time… I think they would have found a nice deal for Green. Yeah not doing a conditional draft pick or something made me wonder… I guess they wanted a prospect, pick, or got a bit too greedy on Green… Better some plan than no plan… Better to get something than nothing :). Maybe they only had an offer like the Vanek trade to CBJ :).

  17. Not sure why everyone is worried about the NYR….

    This summer they are going to sign Kovalchuk and the Sedins all 1 yr deals for 5 million each

    that will be their new #2 line


    • No Way Ilya is coming home to the Winnipeg Jets to add to his records when were Thrashers :). The Sedins will be lucky if they get 5M combined compared to their 7M cap hits now ;). I don’t think Ilya will join Vegas after way they treated the other Russian only playing 3 games w/ 1 goal :). It would be funny if he went back to the Devils :). Maybe the Islanders would be a nice fit or Tampa hehe ;).

      • no really…they are all coming to Manhattan. 1 yr under the big city lights on Broadway. Kovalchuk centered by Hayes and Buchnevich…couple russians
        then Zucc will slot with the Sedins and play some Norse hockey……..

        they all party with Hank for a cup run….
        still leaving enough cap room to sign JT ….

        all for 1 cup run then everyone retires…. except JT…..and by then the young Rangers are ready to play full time NHL duty…..


      • That is funny I guess Rangers will sign Voynov to play D too :). I’d like to see Gusev or so leave to join Vegas that would boost them :). I remember when Frolov was on the Rangers after he was one of my favorites while on Kings… So they seem to like to collect those former Russian Kings :). It would be funny if Rangers win the lottery to draft the Swede for King Henrik’s Cup run :).

  18. Here’s what will happen in Vegas, the team is great due to a bunch of guys fighting to play in top 6 or even be full time players, they are hard working cheap players, after this year all these guys will want bigger money and they will then take foot off gas. Every player tries hard in contract year and usually the mid range guys let up. You’ll see, happens all the time. My Sabres has 25 million in cap space after lock out, every guy on team had a career year then next season they were maxed out with cap, then Drury and Briere walked because our owner was cheap and the rest is history.