NHL Rumor Mill – March 17, 2020

by | Mar 17, 2020

NHL Rumor Mill – March 17, 2020

The NHL schedule may be paused, but the trade and free-agent rumor mill rolls on. Check out the latest on the Oilers and Stars.

PAUSE IN THE SEASON COULD AFFECT OILERS OFF-SEASON PLANS

THE ATHLETIC: Allan Mitchell recently speculated the Edmonton Oilers’ player evaluations and summer plans could be affected by the current pause in the NHL schedule. Those evaluations include recently-acquired players like Mike Green, Andreas Athanasiou, and Tyler Ellis, as well as possible summer free-agent targets like Taylor Hall and Mike Hoffman. Green and Ellis are also eligible for UFA status this summer, while Athanasiou is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights.

Could the Edmonton Oilers be forced to shed salary to re-sign RFAs like Andreas Athanasiou? (Photo via NHL Images)

Mitchell acknowledged bringing Hall back to Edmonton seems improbable because of the cost of signing him and the Oilers’ limited salary-cap space. Pursuing younger, less expensive options would be preferable.

Mitchell also examines the difficulties facing the Oilers if the salary cap remains at $81.5 million for 2020-21. They currently have over $71.2 million invested in 17 players. Re-signing RFAs like Athanasiou, Ethan Bear, and Matt Benning could gobble up $7.5 million, leaving only around $2 million available. General manager Ken Holland must also re-sign or replace UFA goalie Mike Smith.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: A flat cap means Holland must find a way to shed salary to re-sign key players and replace those who depart via free agency this summer. Perhaps the league and the NHLPA will agree to allow one-time amnesty buyouts if the cap doesn’t rise for ’20-’21.

Otherwise, Holland will have to get creative and that means dumping salary via trades. Problem is, there will be other clubs in the same boat and there won’t be as many with sufficient cap space to take on additional salary for next season.

SHOULD THE STARS SHOP RADULOV IN A COST-CUTTING DEAL?

THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS: In a recent mailbag segment, Matthew DeFranks was asked about if the Stars could move winger Alexander Radulov this summer to free up cap space to add a young second-line center. Radulov’s no-movement clause becomes a modified no-trade on July 1.

DeFranks acknowledged it’s possible but doubts Radulov would fetch a second-line center. “This is the player you’d be trading: a 34-year-old (on July 5) winger with a cap hit of $6.25 million that is coming off a career-worst goal-scoring year. That’s not going to get the value Radulov probably gets last year at this time.”

He also pointed out this summer’s free-agent market is heavy on wingers and light on centers. He suggested Roope Hintz, who plays wing or center, could be their second-line center.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I concur with DeFrank’s take on Radulov’s value and his assessment of the free-agent market. Unless there’s an amnesty buyout implemented this summer if the salary cap remains flat, Stars GM Jim Nill would have to look at cost-cutting trades if he wants to shed salary to address his roster needs.










NHL Rumor Mill – March 16, 2020

by | Mar 16, 2020

NHL Rumor Mill – March 16, 2020

Check out the recent speculation about Jacob Markstrom and Justin Schultz, plus a look at what the Coyotes must address in the off-season in today’s NHL rumor mill.

CAN THE CANUCKS AFFORD TO RE-SIGN MARKSTROM?

VANCOUVER SUN: Ed Willes recently reported on how Jacob Markstrom‘s absence from the Canucks’ crease exposed the club’s porous defense. The Canucks struggled after Markstrom was sidelined by a knee injury, threatening their playoff hopes. Backup Thatcher Demko was decent, but his play wasn’t at Markstrom’s level.

Can the Vancouver Canucks afford to re-sign Jacob Markstrom? (Photo via NHL Images)

The 30-year-old starter is an unrestricted free agent. Willes reports of “a discrepancy in the goalie’s perceived value” in contract talks with management.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Canucks have over $63 million invested in 14 players for 2020-21. Chris Tanev is their other noteworthy UFA, while Jake Virtanen, Troy Stecher, Tyler Motte, Adam Gaudette, and Zack McEwen are restricted free agents.

Assuming the cap remains at $81.5 million for next season, it won’t leave much room to re-sign everyone, especially since Markstrom could seek something around $7 million annually. They could attempt to shed salary by trying to move Loui Eriksson and his $6 million AAV, but that could prove easier said than done, especially if the salary cap doesn’t reach the projected $84 million to $88 million.

The Canucks could tap into this summer’s UFA market for a replacement. Washington’s Braden Holtby and Vegas’ Robin Lehner are the notable starters, but both could prove more expensive to sign than Markstrom.

SCHULTZ DONE IN PITTSBURGH?

PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE: Matt Vensel recently reported the decline in Justin Schultz‘s performance this season could leave him facing an uncertain future in Pittsburgh. The 29-year-old defenseman is a UFA this summer, but the Penguins have limited salary-cap space to keep him. Given the drop in his play and the emergence of rookie rearguard John Marino, they might not want to re-sign him.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Schultz resurrected his career with the Penguins and was among their top-four defensemen until suffering a serious ankle injury last season. He could still be feeling the effects of that injury as he tries to regain his form. Schultz’s all-around blueline skills should make him a valuable free-agent commodity, but he’ll likely have to settle for less money on a short-term contract. 

COYOTES COULD HAVE A BUSY OFF-SEASON

THE ATHLETIC: Citing the Arizona Coyotes offensive struggles, Craig Morgan recently speculated they could face a busy off-season to address that issue. He feels they need a first-line center unless they want to wait for promising Barrett Hayden to develop. They still need a legitimate goal scorer and more production from their blueline. Their defense corps also lacks a physical presence.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Their limited salary-cap space will hamper their efforts. They’ve got over $79.9 million tied up in 16 players. They can get cap relief if necessary by placing permanently sidelined winger Marian Hossa ($5.275 million) on long-term injury reserve. Their UFAs include Taylor Hall and Carl Soderberg. If the cap remains at $81.5 million, they’ll have to shed salary to re-sign or replace those two, but it won’t leave enough to bring in outside help.










Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup – March 15, 2020

by | Mar 15, 2020

Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup – March 15, 2020

Could this season be the last for Zdeno Chara? Have we seen the last of Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal as Rangers, or Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu with the Wild? Check out the latest in the Sunday NHL rumor roundup.

COULD THIS SEASON BE CHARA’S LAST?

THE BOSTON GLOBE: Kevin Paul Dupont reports Zdeno Chara‘s agent said he and his client aren’t thinking about whether the Bruins captain will return for another season right now. Matt Keator believes he, Chara, and Bruins general manager Don Sweeney will meet at the end of the season to sort it out. The 43-year-old defenseman becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Dupont feels it would be an anti-climactic end to Chara’s long run with the Bruins if the NHL cancels the rest of the season and the playoffs and Chara opts to retire or management feels it’s time to move on.

Could this be Zdeno Chara’s final NHL campaign? (Photo via NHL Images)

SPECTOR’S NOTE: If the salary cap remains at $81.5 million or falls below that figure, the Bruins probably won’t have sufficient cap room to bring back Chara. Torey Krug and Jaroslav Halak are also UFAs, while Jake DeBrusk, Anders Bjork and Matt Grzelcyk are restricted free agents. With over $61.2 million tied up in 17 players, finding room for Chara on a cheap one-year deal could prove a tight fit if they re-sign everyone else.

HAVE LUNDQVIST  AND STAAL PLAYED THEIR FINAL GAMES AS RANGERS?

THE ATHLETIC: Rick Carpiniello wonders if Henrik Lundqvist has played his final game with the New York Rangers. The long-time Rangers starter had been shunted aside in favor of young goalies Igor Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev before the league paused the schedule over coronavirus concerns. The 38-year-old Lundqvist has a year remaining on his contract worth an annual average value of $8.5 million.

Carpiniello doesn’t expect the Blueshirts will go into training camp this fall carrying three goalies. Buying out Lundqvist’s contract this summer is one option. A trade is another, provided Lundqvist waives his no-movement clause and the Rangers absorb half of his AAV. Either way, the Blueshirts will have some dead cap space for next season.

Long-time Rangers defenseman Marc Staal could face a similar fate. He has a year left on his deal with an AAV of $5.7 million and a no-movement clause.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I believe a buyout is more likely for Lundqvist than a trade, especially if the salary cap remains at $81.5 million for next season. Even by picking up half his AAV, there won’t be many teams with available space as there might have been under a higher ceiling. The same goes for Staal.

END OF THE LINE FOR KOIVU AND PARISE WITH THE WILD?

THE ATHLETIC: Michael Russo wonders if this schedule pause spells the end of Mikko Koivu’s NHL career. The 37-year-old Minnesota Wild captain is an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Sources say Koivu is leaning toward retirement. He declined to waive his no-movement clause a few weeks ago, indicating he couldn’t see himself playing for another team.

STARTRIBUNE.COM: Before the NHL’s pausing the regular-season schedule, Sarah McLellan reported on how Zach Parise’s play had improved following the Feb. 24 trade deadline. Nevertheless, his future with the Wild remains unclear as trade speculation could reignite down the road.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Wild reportedly discussed a deal with the New York Islanders that would’ve sent Parise to Long Island in exchange for winger Andrew Ladd. Both players waived their no-trade clauses to facilitate the deal but it ultimately didn’t come to pass. There’s speculation the two clubs could revisit it this summer, but a lower-than-projected salary cap could scuttle those plans.

If the season is canceled or the league scraps the rest of the regular-season schedule, we may have seen Koivu’s last game as an NHL player. Not the way anyone envisioned his NHL career coming to an end.










NHL Rumor Mill – March 14, 2020

by | Mar 14, 2020

NHL Rumor Mill – March 14, 2020

The latest speculation on how the NHL’s schedule pause could affect the playoff schedule and the salary cap in today’s rumor roundup.

SPORTSNET: Elliotte Friedman examined some of the biggest questions facing the NHL after pausing its season over coronavirus concerns.

Noting how the NHL, NBA and Major League Soccer announced their temporary media guidelines this week at the same time, he believes they’re getting the same medical information and are in communication with each other. He suspects resumption of their respective seasons could also occur at the same time.

THE ATHLETIC: Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus report NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told the board of governors on Thursday that canceling the regular season would cost the league a whopping $1 billion. The hope is to return to work on April 15, stage a one-week mini-training camp, finish out the regular season followed by a possible shortened playoff schedule that ends in July, though that might not be possible.

Aaron Portzline reports there’s a belief the NHL season is over for clubs with no chance of reaching the playoffs.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman reportedly expects a $1 billion revenue loss if the regular season is canceled. (Photo via NHL.com).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Friedman notes NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced the pause for his schedule was 30 days. I suspect the NHL and MLS will follow suit. Barring any improvement in containing and reducing the COVID-19 coronavirus, the earliest the NHL returns to action could be April 12, though that it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s later than that.

Unless the coronavirus is still raging through North America until June, I expect we’ll see some form of a shortened regular-season schedule, perhaps even just a “play-in” for the playoff bubble clubs, following by the first two rounds of the playoffs being best-of-five and the Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Final being best-of-seven.

Friedman reports the NHL could see a $1 billion hit to hockey-related revenue because of this schedule pause. That could result in the salary cap dropping below the current $81.5 million, potentially hurting teams and players. He feels that’s an incentive for the NHL and NHLPA to agree to an artificial cap number for next season.

THE ATHLETIC: Craig Custance points out the financial impact of this schedule pause will affect each team differently. The NHL is more reliant on gate-driven revenue than the other major professional leagues. The average NHL clubs earns $1.7 million per game, with higher-revenue clubs earning twice that. A popular NHL club like the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t feel the effects of this pause as much as a struggling franchise like the Arizona Coyotes.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Friedman reminded us the NHL and NHLPA agreed to an artificial salary-cap number for 2013-14 after a lockout cost half of the previous season. I daresay they’ll do the same to ensure next season’s cap at least remains at $81.5 million. There’s also talk of employing amnesty buyouts, but that probably won’t be necessary under an artificial cap that’s at or slightly above the current level.

 










NHL Rumor Mill – March 13, 2020

by | Mar 13, 2020

NHL Rumor Mill – March 13, 2020

How could the pause on the NHL schedule affect next season’s salary cap? What measures could be taken to cope? Check out the latest in today’s rumor mill.

THE ATHLETIC: Regarding the effect upon the salary cap, Pierre LeBrun suggests the league and the NHL Players Association could agree to toss aside the CBA rules in this emergency and perhaps agree to an artificial number for next season. He cited a source saying they can do that as long as both sides agree it’s the best course of action. That would prevent the cap from falling by millions and putting teams into roster Armageddon. The PA will also want to avoid putting their players into a crazy escrow situation.

Uncertainty over the remainder of the NHL season is giving rise to salary-cap speculation for next season.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Cynics will point to the contentious labor history between the NHL and NHLPA to cast doubt over potential cooperation on an artificial cap for next season. Given the lack of rancor in ongoing collective bargaining talks before the pausing of the schedule, I believe they’ll get something worked out. This is a unique situation, and neither side wants a scenario whereby some teams end up gutting their rosters to become cap compliant.

The template is already there. They agreed to an artificial number to avoid roster upheaval coming out of the 2012-13 lockout. I also expect they’ll work out an escrow calculation for next season that will be acceptable to the players.

NEW YORK POST: Larry Brooks believes a revenue-enhancing plan could address the league’s salary-cap number for 2020-21 if this season is cancelled. He speculates the league and the PA could agree to keep the cap at $81.5 million if they believe there will be an immediate rebound in consumer spending and ticket-buying behavior. However, Brooks feels a flat cap could wreak havoc upon the league with half the teams using long-term injury exemptions to be cap compliant.

Brooks also speculates the league and the PA could adopt an amnesty buyout policy this summer that would not count against a team’s salary-cap payroll. It’s a tactic the league employed following the previous NHL lockout. Regarding the playoffs, he envisions scrapping the rest of the regular-season schedule in favor of an expanded playoff schedule with knockout rounds involving 20-24 teams to drive up fan interest and revenue.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: We can’t rule out amnesty buyouts as a means of providing a measure of cap relief. Following the 2012-13 lockout, each team was allowed two amnesty buyouts spread over two seasons.

As for the playoffs, the format will depend upon when the league can return to action. If it’s in late-April, they’ll probably just play out the remaining schedule and stage the playoffs so that they end by late June. If it moves into May, shorter options could be considered in addition to perhaps playing into July.

THE ATHLETIC: Examining key questions surrounding the Edmonton Oilers in the wake of the pause in the regular season, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis wonder what happens to traded draft picks with games-played conditions attached.

The most complicated is the 2020 third-rounder involved in last summer’s James Neal/Milan Lucic trade. “That pick flips to Calgary if Neal scores 21 goals and Lucic trails his goal count by 10 or more.” Neal currently has 19 goals.

They also wondered if this would affect when the Oilers could offer contracts to free agents such as Riley Sheahan and Mike Smith. Performance bonuses could also be affected, as well as the Oilers’ salary-cap plans for next season.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Those issues aren’t unique to the Oilers. Every club will seek direction depending on the final decision regarding the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.

Speaking of the Oilers, Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman earlier this week said he didn’t think management was talking contract extension yet with Smith. He dismissed rumblings claiming the two sides discussed a one-year deal. Friedman also believes they could wait until the end of the season to talk contract with Sheahan.










NHL Pauses Remainder of 2019-20 Season

by | Mar 12, 2020

NHL Pauses Remainder of 2019-20 Season

Following a conference call with the NHL board of governors, commissioner Gary Bettman released a statement indicating the league will pause the remainder of the 2019-20 season over coronavirus concerns.

“In light of ongoing developments resulting from the coronavirus, and after consulting with medical experts and convening a conference call of the Board of Governors, the National Hockey League is announcing today that it will pause the 2019‑20 season beginning with tonight’s games.

“The NHL has been attempting to follow the mandates of health experts and local authorities, while preparing for any possible developments without taking premature or unnecessary measures. However, following last night’s news that an NBA player has tested positive for coronavirus – and given that our leagues share so many facilities and locker rooms and it now seems likely that some member of the NHL community would test positive at some point – it is no longer appropriate to try to continue to play games at this time.

“We will continue to monitor all the appropriate medical advice, and we will encourage our players and other members of the NHL community to take all reasonable precautions – including by self-quarantine, where appropriate. Our goal is to resume play as soon as it is appropriate and prudent, so that we will be able to complete the season and award the Stanley Cup. Until then, we thank NHL fans for your patience and hope you stay healthy.”

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I doubt anyone’s surprised by this announcement. The spread of the virus in North America, combined with the NBA’s decision last night to pause their season, left the league no choice. It’s the sensible thing to due under the circumstances.

It’s hoped more details will be revealed as to when the NHL will resume the rest of the schedule, as well as when they’ll start the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs, which were to begin on April 8. Various scenarios have reportedly been discussed, but there’s nothing confirmed yet as to what the schedule will look like once this pause has been lifted. It’s possible the playoffs could push throughout June or perhaps into July.

The bottom line here is the league intends to resume the schedule within the four weeks. They haven’t reached the point where they will cancel the season.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to update this site daily throughout this period with the latest NHL news and rumors. I hope you’ll all continue to check in regularly. Take care of yourselves, and please follow instructions to protect you and others from catching or spreading this coronavirus. Here’s hoping we can all get back to watching NHL hockey soon.