NHL Rumor Mill – July 6, 2026
The ongoing effect of the Carlsson offer sheet plus the latest on Shane Wright and Vladimir Tarasenko in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
THE ONGOING FALLOUT FROM THE CARLSSON OFFER SHEET
THE ATHLETIC: Shayna Goldman looked at the effects the offer sheets for Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson from the Philadelphia Flyers and Utah Mammoth center Barrett Hayton from the New Jersey Devils are having around the league.
Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (NHL Images).
One of the ripples is how Carlsson’s offer sheet could affect the contract negotiations for Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard, Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli, and Detroit Red Wings defenseman Simon Edvinsson. Like Carlsson, they are restricted free agents coming off their entry-level contracts and lack arbitration rights.
The Blackhawks have sufficient salary-cap space to match any offer for Bedard. However, Goldman noted the Ducks are in the same position with Carlsson, and the Flyers’ offer sheet has thrown a wrench into their salary-cap outlook.
Goldman wondered if Carlsson’s $18 million average annual value raises the ask for Bedard and Fantilli. She also mused over what it might cost the San Jose Sharks to re-sign Macklin Celebrini next summer.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The ripples from the Carlsson offer sheet will be wide-reaching.
It remains to be seen if Bedard, Fantilli, or Edvinsson are interested in receiving offers from rival clubs. Even if they’re not, Carlsson’s league-leading AAV sets the bar for comparable talent. For example, if Bedard feels he’s worth more, the Blackhawks could have little choice but to sign him rather than risk a protracted contract standoff that could grease the skids for his departure.
The Sharks can sign Celebrini to a contract extension now and were reportedly working toward doing so. They don’t have to worry about an offer sheet, but Carlsson’s new AAV could push the cost of re-signing him much higher than the Sharks anticipated.
THE ATHLETIC: Aaron Portzline reports the Blue Jackets continue to negotiate with Fantilli, hoping to sign him before another team steps forward with an offer sheet.
Portzline wondered if the Flyers might pursue Fantilli if the Ducks match their offer to Carlsson by Friday. General manager Don Waddell said his club has the cap space to match any offer. “I don’t expect it, but you never know in this business,” Waddell said.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Portzline believes Waddell and the Blue Jackets will match any offer for Fantilli. Nevertheless, they might want to see if they can speed up negotiations to get the young center signed under their terms, rather than those set by a rival club.
UPDATES ON SHANE WRIGHT AND VLADIMIR TARASENKO
NEW JERSEY HOCKEY NOW: James Nichols wondered if the Devils would turn to the trade market to acquire Seattle Kraken center Shane Wright if their offer sheet to center Barrett Hayton is matched by the Utah Mammoth.
The Devils signed the 25-year-old Hayton to a one-year, $4.775 million offer sheet last Wednesday. If the Mammoth fail to match it, Hayton will slot in as the Devils’ third-line center.
If the Mammoth match, the Devils will have to continue searching for a third-line center. Nichols suggested the 22-year-old Wright as a trade option. He’s struggled in Seattle, and he and the Kraken have agreed that a change of scenery will benefit both sides.
Nichols acknowledged it would cost more to acquire Wright from the Kraken than the 2027 second-round draft pick they would have to give to the Mammoth as compensation for a successful signing of Hayton. Nevertheless, he believes it would be a worthwhile and affordable fallback without overpaying for a one-year rental player while buying a handful of restricted free-agent years.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: We’ll know by Wednesday at the latest if the Devils will need a “Plan B” option and if Wright would be on their radar in the trade market.
EDMONTON JOURNAL: Kurt Leavins and Jim Matheson disagree over whether Vladimir Tarasenko would be a good fit with the Oilers. The 33-year-old right wing is among the few notable players remaining in this summer’s thin unrestricted free-agent market.
Leavins suggested Tarasenko as a possible answer to the Oilers’ need for a top-six winger. However, Matheson noted his footspeed has declined, and he didn’t think he’d be willing to accept a low-money $2 million deal.
Why does the discretionary move by one GM reset the market ? It is just one player.
Carlsson is not Mcdavid or MacKinnon . The others don’t have to follow suit
Calgary could offer Zary (#24)
and Col & VGK second rounders over the next two years for Wright. I doubt you get a lot better right now at least .
Because every other player will want what their value is in comparison to what Carlsson is getting. When you co-worker who you think you are better than or at least comparable to gets a $5 an hour raise, will you just accept you same salary, or would you say, hey if so and so gets that much, I must be worth more and try and rework your salary? That’s just common sense.
You are partly right, but winning is also a factor when it comes to first line players. I can imagine LC looking at Philly and Ducks and saying they are about the same in chance to win, but I get 6m more in Philly. But some teams like Florida can offer less since they are a cup contenders
and every agent with a hot young commodity just slammed the brakes on negotiations
You are correct Woody.
Philly not making any friends in the offices.
Woody: McDavid settled for 12.5 after Kaprizov signed for 17 million. And both Dobes and Demidov signed for below market as well.
These players were conscious of the impact on their teams’ ability to be competitive wrt the cap implications. Other players will be all about the money.
So common sense is in the eye of the beholder.
It resets the very foundation of values for all players from the stars to the scrubs. Usually the UFA market helps over value players but an offer sheet by definition or action, is an overpay to lure players with financial incentives they would not normally receive at this time…in this case, from an ELC to the highest paid contract…silver, you don’t see anything wrong with that?
But one astronomical over pay does not constitute the market. It really is simply an outlier. It may push the average up, but I doubt most people honestly think that Carlsson is worth 18m
I don’t believe that a signing resets the market.
Kaprisov signed a 17 aav September 30th last year. Why didn’t Eichel, Mcdavid follow? Why hasn’t anyone until Carlsson got that type of deal ?
The obvious difference is one player completing their ELC then signing an offer sheet of said amount…term, payments and bonuses….all the players are resigning an offered contract which would be their third or big payoff contracts.
Personally dollar values are a terrible way to judge a contract. Percentage of the cap is much more effective way because that value will change as the cap does. Keeping your stars taking 8-10% of your cap the year it’s signed is hard but the better managed teams find ways to continue to add over time. Contracts like this can and will tie a GMs hands, especially if the team is still not a contender.
Not every team has the 4 fist rd picks to make offer sheets like this feasible. I agree Briere marked man on this one. This isn’t like Armstrong with broberg and Holloway. This is huge salary marker for future arbitration eligible rfa as well as bedard etc
every time a gm signs a player to an offer sheet – they are reported to be a “marked man.” its all nonsense
I think Wright is worth a 2nd rounder no more. He a bottom 6 center who has trouble in the face-off dot.
If he’s traded, it will be for a 2nd and maybe a 6th thrown in.
What do the other GMs think of Brière now that he totally upset the salary scale? I’d imagine he’ll have a difficult time finding a trading partner for the near future.
People seem to have missed the detail that four teams submitted offer sheets for Carlsson. Verbeek left them wide open for this, there’s been speculation about it for a year, the flyers just happened to be the ones who came out on top
@Lyle: Do you think the offersheet mechanism will be hotly discussed firstly in the GMs annual meetings and secondly between the NHL and the NHLPA? Since the OS has gone from an almost non factor to a major factor in just 2 years due to the rising cap which allows some teams to stay competetive longer since they have the money to take the cap hit and forfit the draft picks due to being good resulting the draftpicks being just good lottery tickets. I hope the wording of the question makes sense
Hi, Kent. There might be some general managers upset with the Flyers over the Carlsson offer sheet, but not so much that they’ll want to see it changed in the next round of collective bargaining. It’s been part of the CBA since the salary cap was implemented over 20 years ago. Despite the recent uptick in its usage because of the rising cap, the fact remains that it hasn’t been used that frequently because they’re usually matched. If a team loses a player to an offer sheet, that the fault of their management for not doing a better job of protecting their assets.
Pat Verbeek thought he could scare off poachers by saying he’d match any offer for Leo Carlsson. The Flyers called his bluff, and now he has to put up or shut up.
I agree in principle, my argument for why it might be discussed more is that with the cap rising slowly and first round draft picks being so valuable it worked. Now the rising cap and the lower valuation of the picks made after the top ten has changed the dynamics. If you look at Carlssons value in a vaccuum compared to 4 picks in the 20-32 range the value very much favours Carlsson. So lower revenue teams now have a much harder time to rebuild through the draft than before because after three years a good player can just refuse to sign an extension and wait for an offer sheet
I think Verbeek matches. They still have space to sign Gauthier. Thing with Carlsson deal is it’s only 5 years so AAV is much higher. If Gauthier camp wants more, Ducks have a few older players with high cap hits and partial ntc’s. Kreider and Killorn both entering last year of their deals. Vatrano and Granlund have 2 seasons left.
As far as offer sheets, 1 thing they could change is compensation.
Lyle
Anaheim’s owner would be on the hook for $39M in the first 12 months of the contract due to signing bonuses.
With a net worth of around $25B he can obviously afford it. However, does he want to pay it?
Daryl, I’m fully aware of how much the Ducks will be on the hook for given the structure of the Carlsson contract. From a team standpoint, they have to match or be without a first-line center for the foreseeable future, which would be a significant step backward for the Ducks.
Wright is a name out there because he was a high pick. But considering what he’s done in the NHL so far, Devils fans need to ask: “what does Wright bring to the Devils that Cody Glass hasn’t? ” Glass has good chemistry with Gritsyuk, won some important faceoffs and good on the PK. Dont see him pushed to the 4th line if Hayton does indeed go the Devils. Instead I see a 3rd line of Hayton-Glass-Gritsyuk
People believe in draft pedigree and see “real” value there somehow. Also younger players have a longer runway and being a first round pick, the hope is they will reach that potential that made him a high first rounder.
Those covid years…the limited views and lack of confidence in players made those two or three drafts a complete gong show.
Wright at this moment is just a good Kotkaniemi which isnt saying much
He’s in the same class
Wright better scoring touch-I think the only way to see what he has if he goes to a team where he gets top 6 minutes. and he should move to the wing
I’d take wright in nyr as 3c or 3rw with laba Gives versatility in bottom six
No shortage of bottom 6 players in NY
Does anybody recall the Joe Thornton trade?
Many of the same things being said about Wright were said about Thornton.
Not every 1st round pick nails it from the get-go.
He’s still only 22 years old. Some players drafted the same year are stuck in the minors…Isaac Howard was picked by Tampa
Wright is 4th in total points scored by players drafted in 2022. Looks like a weak draft overall
A DeBrusk for Wright trade makes sense. Vancouver gets a RH C to play behind Petterson and DeBrusk moves on from a rebuilding Canucks team
Daryl, I agree about Wright still having the potential to establish himself, but the Thornton trade is a poor comparable. By the time he was traded to the San Jose Sharks, Thornton was in his eighth NHL season and had already established himself as a first-line center, with a 101-point season on his resume.
Carlsson’s offer sheet may make other restricted free agents increase their asking price. But the NHL still has a hard salary cap, and GMs need to build the best team they can under the cap.
Does it make sense to have a few over paid players and a bunch of minimum salaried players? Will that lead to better results than a more balanced roster?
Let’s see which smart GMs get the balance right.
I think Carlsson receiving this contract can come back to haunt him. What is the expectation next year in Philly? 30 goals 70 points? There will be a lot of pressure on him to justify that contract. For that amount you would expect 40 goals and 100 plus points. His face off percentage was 44% last year.
In Anaheim I think there will just be disappointment and buyers remorse even if he is a point a game player.
I hope it works out for him and you can’t blame him taking the money but money is not everything.
I take my chance on Pettersson. All you need to give up is draft picks.
If you’re expecting Mcdavid or Kucherov numbers from Carlsson you’re in for a huge disappointment.
Carlsson is more of a Barkov in the making. Not a Mcdavid.
My guess would be somewhere in the 80s range will be his ceiling. Maybe somewhere between 80-100?
But he’s probably on his way to becoming a more complete player than people putting up 100 points.
I don’t believe there is a more underrated player in the NHL today than this guy.
How there was no chatter of an offer sheet prior to an offer sheet is beyond comprehension. Total miss by everyone in the business. Or just again oversight/ underrating this guy!
Whether there are expectations or not, he has $18M in his pocket per year for the next 5 years. If Philly gets him, there will be no room for buyer’s remorse. They will not have any place to move him if that were to happen.
Where this will cause issues are for teams like Dallas trying to resign JRob. They are already a team that is up against the cap and can only afford so much.
Teams like Chicago and Columbus are still building and will always have room for Bedard and Fantilli. They need to keep their franchise players or always languish as a bottom feeder team. It is more of bringing in those next level guys to build around them
The Carlsson contract structure may actually see him in a smaller market team come next off season if Anaheim keeps him. Once that second bonus is paid out in early July that contract would be a bargain. A Winnipeg or Columbus could get him (no trade protection) if Anaheim wanted to make a hockey trade and needed to get out from the $18 million AAV, something that nets them more than 4 mid to late 1st round picks.
You really think Anaheim would pay him 38 Million for one year and trade him.
Yes
Ducks will have less than $10 mil in cap space if they match, after signing Mintuykov. They still have to sign Gauthier, who will want more than what they have. Ducks are in trouble either way, very short on defence, and now cap strained
You look at the % to cap that Leo 17.3% and Kaprizov 16.3% have been signed to, you can see a world, where contracts top 20M, and IMO it will be next summer with Makar. There is a reason McDavid and Matthews structured the way they did, and both of them will be over 20 million AAV.
IMO some fans see these contracts as over payment, but you are still living in a world of a 80-88 million salary cap. The owners have mostly recovered financially from the effects of COVID, frozen cap, the virtual sponsorships in the arenas and on the uniforms, along with new TV deals……..now its time for the players to “Catch” up.
I love the offer sheets, paying these guys 1-2% of the cap for their first 3 years then playing hard ball on their 2nd contract is horse crud, and I am glad the players are finally getting paid.