NHL Rumor Mill – July 18, 2026
In today’s NHL Rumor Mill: five players who could seek maximum AAVs on their next contracts and the latest Rangers speculation.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I will be taking time off on Sunday, July 19. The next update to this site will be Monday, July 20. And now, on to today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
SPORTSNET: Justin Arenburg recently listed five NHL players who could seek the maximum average annual value on their next contracts.
The maximum AAV for NHL players is 20 percent of whatever the salary cap is on the date the player signs their contract.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The maximum AAV for 2026-27 is $20.8 million. A player who signs a contract extension during this season would receive this season’s maximum rate.
The salary cap will rise to $113.5 million for 2027-28, making the maximum AAV $22.7 million. It would be beneficial for a superstar on an expiring contract to wait until July 1, 2027, when they can earn a higher maximum AAV.
San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini (NHL Images).
Arenburg lists Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks and Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche as the top candidates for 2027. Celebrini will be a restricted free agent coming off his entry-level contract, while Makar will be the top unrestricted free agent.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: As explained earlier, if Celebrini and Makar sign extensions during this season for the league maximum, it would be $20.8 million. If they wait until July 1, it’ll be $22.7 million.
Celebrini has indicated he could be open to signing for less than the maximum, but he’ll still get a substantial raise. With Leo Carlsson’s new contract with its $18 million AAV setting the benchmark, Celebrini would be justified in seeking more because of his status among the league’s elite players.
Makar is earning an AAV of $9 million on his current deal. Given that he’s considered the best defenseman in the league, he is expected to seek more than Carlsson’s $18 million AAV. How much more remains to be seen.
Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid and Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews would be the top UFAs in the 2028 free agent market.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Given their accomplishments, McDavid and Matthews would be justified in seeking top dollar from their existing teams or from other clubs on the open market. With the 2028-29 salary cap projected to be $123 million, the maximum AAV would be $24.6 million.
Arenburg also included Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks on this list. The 21-year-old is currently an RFA coming off his entry-level contract. He’s struggled at times to play up to the hype as “the next McDavid”, in part due to injuries that have hampered his performance.
Nevertheless, it was recently revealed that Carlsson’s agents said they looked at Bedard as a comparable player when negotiating their client’s current contract. Arenburg suggested the possibility of the Blackhawks center signing for the league maximum.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: It will be interesting to see how Bedard’s contract negotiations pan out. He and the Blackhawks were reportedly negotiating an extension when he suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month that has sidelined him for four months. What effect that has on those discussions remains to be seen.
THE ATHLETIC: Vincent Z. Mercogliano recently looked at several options for the New York Rangers to add another forward to their roster during the offseason.
According to Mercogliano’s sources, the Rangers poked around on Anthony Mantha (before he signed with the New Jersey Devils) and Eeli Tolvanen. Patrik Laine could be an option on a one-year, “prove-it” deal, but “Drury’s interest is unclear”.
Young trade targets could include Shane Wright of the Seattle Kraken, Kent Johnson of the Columbus Blue Jackets, and Connor Zary of the Calgary Flames.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Kraken are currently entertaining trade offers for Wright, and it’s believed the Flames are open to offers for Zary. There hasn’t been much speculation about Johnson, but that doesn’t mean the Blue Jackets won’t entertain offers.
Mercogliano didn’t rule out the Rangers adding a veteran forward with ties to the club, such as Vancouver Canucks wingers Brock Boeser and Jake DeBrusk (through J.T. Miller) and Pittsburgh Penguins winger Bryan Rust (through head coach Mike Sullivan). However, all those players are 29 or older, and each one carries a significant salary.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: My guess is Drury prefers adding one of those younger forwards. They carry reasonable contracts and could be solid additions for years if they flourish in New York.
Auston “53 points last season” Matthews? Woof.
It’s not nice to troll Leafs fans like that…😉
Besides, we all know what a healthy Matthews is capable of. Calder Trophy winner. Hart Trophy winner. The only player besides Ovechkin to win the Richard Trophy at least three times. Only two years removed from a career-best 69 goals and 107 points. I wouldn’t bet against a strong bounce-back this season if he can avoid injuries.
Key word is “healthy”.
I think you could leave off Bedard, Matthews off the list of max AAV. They are not in the same class of player, as the other three. Sorry
Vancouver should look at Kent Johnson and try and send DeBrusk the other way
I see two problems with your idea. 1) Johnson has been wildly inconsistent, dramatically lowering his trade value. 2) From what I’ve read, DeBrusk wants to stay in the Western Conference and wants to go to a team where he’d have a chance to win the Cup.
Apparently these superstars want to win. That’s all we have heard this off season.
If that is the case save some dough to round out the roster and surround yourself with some talent and depth.
No one is at 20% now so why with more cap that now becomes prevalent ?
Because of Carlsson getting an offer sheet worth $18 million annually, an amount he’s clearly not worthy of (yet), and now sets the benchmark for someone like Celebrini, Makar, or Bedard to seek more.
The best players in the league contracts are about to expire. They will push past Carlssons reach up into the stratosphere!
Curious. Has any player ever signed for max allowed? If Makar where to, what percentage will him and McKinnon be at? They had realistic chance to win cup last season. Both got hurt and missed time in playoffs. Obviously weren’t at 100% when they did play.
As the Sportsnet’s piece noted, Brad Richards is the only one, signing an extension during 2005-06 that would’ve been worth the league maximum. Howeever, when his deal went into effect on July 1, 2026, the salary cap had risen that season, so his AAV wound up being just over $17 percent.
That was a horribly generous contract in 2006 and thankfully he followed it up with back to back mediocre seasons (especially poor +/- as well). Buyer beware.
By my count the Avalanche have 6 players 33 years or older on their roster, and only two of them have contracts that expire at the end of this coming season. Of those two, Burns’ contract is less than 1 million.
Lehkonen and Roy are younger, worth keeping and their contract expires at the end of this coming season. So aging roster, cap problems.
If Makar holds out for anything close to 18 million and the Avs give him that then they will be slamming their competitive window shut. They have won the Cup once with Makar. Great player, but increasingly teams are going to have to ask whether they want a marquee player or a Cup.
Always feel like Mercogliano puts same names out that we all discuss here. No solid inside info. Can see Drury being interested in the younger guys mentioned but, at what cost? Laine not a fit. (IMO he ends up in Buffalo) already signed Bjorkstrand for a year. I think that cancels out Rust. Interesting that Schneider only signed for a year. That’ll keep him in rumors. I think Drury pretty much done. Will see what young guys bring in training camp. Laba was a nice surprise last year. Lamb, Greentree, Smits among group that’ll be given long looks.
Do ya pull a Lafreniere and Schneider for a Larkin offer because you can move miller to 2Lw with dorofyev as 1RW
??
Redwings will say no but do ya make the offer anyway
Surprised Quinn Hughes is not on that list.