NHL Rumor Mill – January 11, 2024
Check out the latest on the Leafs’ Mitch Marner as well as the Flames’ Jacob Markstrom and Elias Lindholm plus some blueline trade options for the Devils in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
HOW MUCH COULD MARNER EARN ON HIS NEXT CONTRACT?
SPORTSNET: In the wake of the Toronto Maple Leafs signing William Nylander, Josh Beneteau looked at how much the Leafs might have to pay to re-sign Mitch Marner. The 26-year-old winger becomes eligible for unrestricted free-agent status on July 1, 2025.
Marner’s current average annual value is $10.9 million. Based on his performance, he’s expected to get a raise. If he gets the same cap percentage as Boston’s David Pastrnak (13.47), his new AAV will be $12.392 million.
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Marner will probably get that much with the Leafs or another club if he hits the open market. The question is whether the Leafs are willing to pay him that much. It’s bound to generate plenty of speculation over his future once July 1 rolls around as that’s the earliest the Leafs can open contract extension talks.
TIME TO TRADE MARKSTROM?
CALGARY SUN: Kent Wilson suggests the time may be right for the Flames to trade Jacob Markstrom. After struggling last season, the 2022 Vezina Trophy finalist is enjoying a bounce-back performance in 2023-24.
With playoff contenders such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes undermined by bottom-of-the-league goaltending, Wilson felt this could be a good opportunity for the Flames to peddle Markstrom. Doing so would enable them to bring up his heir apparent Dustin Wolf on a full-time basis.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Given the limited cap room for most of those clubs, moving Markstrom’s $6 million AAV through 2025-26 won’t happen before the trade deadline unless the Flames agree to retain half of it. His full no-movement clause could also complicate things.
Trading Markstrom would be difficult but not impossible during the offseason. The salary cap is expected to jump by $4.2 million, creating room for teams seeking an experienced starter.
WHAT COULD IT COST TO ACQUIRE ELIAS LINDHOLM?
THE ATHLETIC: In a recent mailbag segment, Julian McKenzie was asked what a realistic trade return would be for Calgary Flames center Elias Lindholm.
McKenzie speculated the Flames could get a first-round pick and a lesser prospect or a higher-quality prospect and a lower pick. He also thinks that the asking price could change if Lindholm is willing to sign a contract extension with his new club.
As for potential trade partners, McKenzie suggested the Colorado Avalanche, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators and Detroit Red Wings.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Avalanche have been often linked to Lindholm but cap space could be an issue. The same applies to the Bruins. I think the Predators and Red Wings would be the most keen to have Lindholm sign an extension rather than be a playoff rental.
DEVILS BLUELINE TRADE OPTIONS
NEW JERSEY HOCKEY NOW: James Nichols recently examined some possible options for the Devils to patch up or upgrade their injury-depleted defense corps.
Calgary Flames blueliners Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, Anaheim Ducks rearguard Ilya Lyubushkin and Philadelphia Flyers d-man Nick Seeler were his suggested trade options.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Hanifin’s the best of the bunch but he’ll also cost the most to acquire. Tanev won’t be as expensive but the asking price could be a second-rounder and a prospect. Lyubushkin and Seeler would be much more affordable options in terms of cap hit and return.
Marner to Calgary for Markstrom and whomever makes the money work.
There isn’t an urgency to trade Marner if Tavares signs his next contract for $6m or less. If you flip his current contract with Nylander’s new one, it’s a wash. The cap will rise, probably more than $2million that season so Marner at $12m can fit and they should be status quo.
Again not ideal considering status quo isn’t exactly perfect. They will still be bargain hunting to find players to fill up the rest of the line up which is not ideal at all for a team that wants to win now.
Also I feel like if they were going to trade any of them, they would have done it by now. Maybe Marner and his agent force the Leafs hands to trade or let him walk if his demands are outrageous. I expect them to start gauging the costs right after the playoffs.
I can see Toronto and Tavares doing each other a favour.
The Leafs need cap space.
Tavares wants to stay in Toronto.
Keep in mind Tavares turns 35 at the start of his next contract.
I can imagine he’d likely sign for 4M on a 2-year deal (remember, he’ll be 35 and 36 during these years, and much less effective, and he’s already taken less to come to Toronto). After that he’ll likely sign 1-year minimums till he’s ready to retire (a la Spezza).
It’s hard to predict how long he’ll play before retirement, but let’s be optimistic and say he plays till he’s 40. That would be $750,000, or whatever the min is at that time, for 4 more years.
That’s a total earnings of 11M for 6 more years on 5 future contracts.
I wonder if they could agree to an 8-year deal for that $11M to bring down the cap, and just drift off to Robidas Island when he’s no longer effective, or take a position in management like Spezza did. This would make his cap hit $1.375M for 8 years.
Now, before you argue my numbers, or just shot this idea down off-hand, replace my numbers with your own and do the math. My idea isn’t for the annual numbers I came up with, rather the concept of spreading the cap hit over a full 8 years that you know he won’t play-out, using numbers that the two sides can agree on.
Of course, this would make it easier to re-sign Marner.
With Marner’s NMC it will be very difficult to trade Marner. I believe teams would line up to acquire him, but will Marner be willing to accept a trade? I also believe it would be a big mistake for the Leafs to trade him.
Time for Marner and Taveres to step up as local boys to take a home town discount. Taveres $3M and Marner same as Nylander $11.5M. Winning a cup in Toronto will cement their legacy for life. I’m ok with Marner on a short term or long term contract. Taveres max 3 years. The year these contracts kick in is the best chance they will be able address other needs and give the best odds for a cup.
Hopefully they win one this year or next but I think they have too many holes in the lineup.
Why should Marner take a discount when the organization just gave Nylander and Matthews nice huge raises?
I agree, Tavares should take a discount, but not Marner.
Marner has been overpaid all of this contract, some years less and some more than others. Time to take a discount
The most Marrner should get is same as Willie Nylander, $11.5M….Tops
Marrnier playes with the Leafs Best player…
Austin Mathews on the 1st line…
Nylander plays with Tavares and who ever needs a spot on the 2nd line❓
Tavares has pretty much been a point per game player in Toronto. Granted, he’s not getting younger. But do you really believe he’ll sign for 3rd line money when he would fetch much more on the open market? I certainly don’t!
Realistically, signing for 6-8 would be a discount. 3 is a slap in the face. Zero chance of that happening.
Especially when he needs to start thinking about what’s next after hockey.
I wonder if Kane thought 3 million was a “slap in the face” at his age and with his performance history…?
Well, is Tavares getting a hip surgery that has only been successful TWICE ion nhl players able to return to the game? Or any type of surgery with such a low success rate?
If so, excellent comparison! If not, let’s use an actual comparable player / situation?
The best comparable that I found to Tavares, who will be 34 or 35 years old when his current contract expires, is Claude Giroux. Giroux was 34 when he signed his 3-year, $6.5 million AVV contract in the summer of 2022.
I have no idea if Tavares coming off a larger cap hit ($11 million) than Giroux ($8.275) will factor into the next contract.
Excellent comparison, as well as Malkin as chrism points out.
3 million? Zero chance. Zero.
“Hey, we’re going to take Ryan Reeves contract and double it for ya! You in? “
Yes, slap in the face!
Most people out there would slap their boss in their face and take a 💩 on their desk for $1.50 more an hour, yet talk about leaving MILLIONS on the table for players because it’s the “right thing to do” somehow.
Anyone feel like going to their boss right now and taking a 50-75% discount because it’s the right thing to do for the “good of the company “?
Please stream this live and send me the link!
I’ll get my popcorn ready!
Think of the crappy jammies you’d have to buy with only 3 or 4 mil a year. No way Tavares is signing for something that low.
How much did Bergeron accept. Based on taveres comments his dream is winning a cup in Toronto. I sure he has already banked $100M. If he wants that to come true he need to take the Bergeron discount.
I also don’t think he will get $6M-$8M from any other contender.
I’m a Taveres fan and he has provided exactly what they signed him for. His production is the same as it was for the the Islanders. If the pandemic didn’t happen we would not be discussing his contract. The Leafs got stuck in flat cap hell. The Fab 4 contracts all came up for renewal during the flat cap. I don’t think any other team had that many stars to sign.
Bergeron took a 5 million 1 year deal, (included was base , bonus etc, coming off a 3 year 4.375 per deal.
He was also 38, and had numerous missed games over the previous seasons.
You honestly don’t believe there’s a gm out there willing to pay Tavares 6-8 per? A guy averaging a point a game? I believe you underestimate gms desperation and stupidity.
There have been MUCH worse signings of MUCH lesser players in recent years.
Why is Tavares excluded?
While his dream was to win a cup in Toronto, that hasn’t come to fruition. Is it more likely as he gets older?
Retirement certainly is, and he should probably be thinking about that rather than how to help an organization who has struggled to get out of the 1st round with or without him.
I don’t believe Toronto is any closer to a cup today than they were when Tavares was in NY.
Maybe one or both sides see that as well?
Well, folks here referred to Kane’s impending, at the time, contract as a “sweepstakes” and declined to take into consideration his hip surgery. Who will the lucky team be? So, yeah, it’s comparable…if you want it to be. Isn’t that obvious?
No, it isn’t a comparable.
What people say here is beyond ridiculous, like Tavares will take 3 million for instance.
Less than Muzzin, Murray? Lmao.
Again , Kanes surgery hasn’t been very successful in the past for players to return.
So if Tavares isn’t getting that surgery, let’s move on.
As other people have realistically pointed out, Malkin and Giroux are perfect comparisons.
Not someone with low odds of even playing the game ever again, let alone being effective.
For 3 million I’d roll the dice on a guy like Kane. Who was being pretty particular of where he’d sign.
For a healthy point per game Tavares, what team isn’t outbidding 3 million?
Hello Boston, Columbus Philly, Detroit, San Jose, St Louis and Nashville!
Tavares should be happy with half of what he is currently receiving.
$5.5 x 2 or max 3 years should be enough at 35 years of age.
If he holds out for more then let him find it elsewhere!
Similarly with Marner.
He was overpaid on his last contract.
Leaf management needs to take back control from the players and their agents.
Maximum $12M for Marner over whatever term he decides.
I think malkins deal is a good barometer for Tavares.
Tavares has been Very well payed in Toronto,
$122.M he has made in his career ❗️
His next contract should be 2X$4M…..Tops…
bye then he will be 36 years old…
98% of All players really slow dow when they hit 34, and 35,
maybe the NHL should look at doing a New Rule when you hit 30yrs old the max leanth of deal you can sign is 6 years…..❓ that should help a number of ( Stupid GM’s )
out there that through money at players
The Leafs need to Start to be Very Smart with there payroll, if they ever want to win a cup
They have lots of young talent in forwards coming up
1/Fix the D.
2/Fix The Goaltending
then with what ever money they have left… waste it on what ever😳
Malkin and his stats this year are nearly identical. Malkin at 36 earned a 6 mil a year deal. At 34 you don’t think Tavares gets that much or more?
Chrism,
Yes because , fan.
How many Cups has Marner won so far????
He has won the same number as Tavares, who is a very good player (not elite) who has put up good numbers (not elite) with an elite contract. I think he has been overpaid by $1.5 – $2M per season. If he becomes a UFA at the expiration of his current contract, I doubt anyone offers him anything north of $6M (I wouldn’t do that much). Toronto shouldn’t exceed that number either.
Claude Provost won 9 Stanley Cups and isn’t in the HOF.