Revisiting My Concerns Regarding The Winnipeg Jets’ Future
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The following was written on May 31, 2011, following the rebirth of the Winnipeg Jets following the sale and relocation of the Atlanta Thrashers. I felt it worthwhile to revisit this piece after Jets owner Mark Chipman raised concerns earlier this week about the club’s declining attendance.
I didn’t foresee a pandemic and the resulting inflation that would affect the Jets’ ticket sales. Nevertheless, most of the issues I mentioned remain relevant.
I’m not trying to say “I told you so” and I’m not taking any kind of victory lap here. I wanted this incarnation of the Jets to succeed and I still do. However, my worries then (and now) are genuine and relevant because of Winnipeg’s place as the NHL’s smallest market.
I’m interested in what you think about this situation. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section below.
Winnipeg Jets owner Mark Chipman (NHL Images).
The sale of the Atlanta Thrashers to True North Sports and Entertainment and the relocation of the team to Winnipeg, Manitoba, resulted in euphoria in a city that was getting back NHL hockey fifteen years after their beloved Jets were sold and relocated to Phoenix in 1996
Since then, hockey fans in that city and province dreamed of the day when an NHL franchise might return. What at one time seemed a mere pipe dream finally became reality, and they have every right to enjoy the moment.
Long-time readers of my work – either on this blog, my website, or my Foxsports.com column – know I have expressed serious doubts over the long-term viability of an NHL franchise in Winnipeg.
I know how much Manitobans in general, and Winnipeggers in particular, love hockey, and remember well how much heartbreak there was when the beloved Jets were sold and moved to Phoenix.
It’s been said an NHL franchise in Winnipeg would enjoy considerable fan and corporate support, that it would do so much better than any struggling southern U.S. team, and this time would buck the odds and silence doubters like me.
I don’t wish any ill will toward Winnipeg or Manitoba, and genuinely hope they’ll beat the odds this time around that the league will never abandon Winnipeg again. I am happy for everyone in Manitoba that you’re getting back an NHL franchise and wish them and their team the very best of luck
I’m not trying to rain on the parade, folks, but the questions I’ve raised over the years remain unanswered.
Can a city whose current metropolitan population (just over 764,000) accounts for over half the total population of the province (just over 1.2 million) – making it the smallest market in the league by a wide margin – sustain an NHL franchise for a prolonged period?
Can it continue to do so if that population grows by the same level (just over 70K) over the next fifteen years as it did over the last fifteen?
What proof is there Winnipeg fans will support their new franchise if it continues to struggle through the same level of mediocrity it did in Atlanta? It’s one thing for fans to say it, it’s another to put your money where your mouth is.
The high cost of attending games should be a serious concern for Winnipeg hockey fans.
The average fan cost index (FCI) for a family of four to attend an NHL game this season was $313.68. The lowest for a Canadian team was $328.92 (Ottawa), while the cost in the smallest market (Edmonton), with the smallest venue, was $346.46.
True North Sports and Entertainment chairman Mark Chipman has said the size of the MTS Centre means they’ll have to charge higher-than-average ticket prices for NHL games. TSN reports ticket prices for the franchise’s first season will be between $39 – $129 per game, with the average ticket price next season being $82.00, the third highest in the NHL, which could push the total FCI up toward $370.00 per game.
Over time, that expensive cost of attending NHL games could adversely affect attendance, especially season ticket sales – the lifeblood of NHL franchises – regardless of the team’s performance.
Just how prepared are Winnipeg and Manitoba hockey fans for that sticker shock?
How willing could fans be to pay higher than the league average consistently?
Are they willing to keep pace with the ever-increasing costs of attending NHL games? Can they afford it over the long term?
And don’t expect those prices to remain stagnant, or to make only tiny increases in the coming years. They’re only going to go higher, pushing the FCI up with it.
If attendance suffers from a higher-than-average FCI, will True North lower prices to attract more fans? And by how much? Is it even feasible for True North to do so?
Chipman has also said the player payroll will likely be in the mid-range of the salary cap. Wouldn’t that adversely affect management’s efforts to maintain a competitive team?
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Jets have been near the upper range of the salary cap several times, including this season.
For how long can a Winnipeg franchise continue to remain a “mid-range” salary cap team?
Would it be able to keep up with a rising salary cap if it remains tied to revenue under the next CBA?
Doesn’t that suggest the risk of reaching the point where they could struggle to remain over the mandated salary cap minimum?
Wouldn’t that raise concerns regarding the club’s ability to retain its best players, or attract top free-agent talent?
Back in April, when it appeared the Phoenix Coyotes would be moved to Winnipeg, goalie Ilya Bryzgalov, projected as the best goalie potentially available in this summer’s free-agent market, said he’d refuse to follow the club there.
Could Winnipeg prove unattractive to NHL free agents, regardless of how well the club performs in the coming years?
Chipman has previously said the MTS Centre cannot be expanded, meaning at some point – likely ten-fifteen years from now – a new arena with more seating capacity (over 18,000) might have to be built.
How long can the MTS Centre (now Canada Life Centre) remain a suitable venue for an NHL team before True North Sports and Entertainment starts suggesting they need a bigger one?
Sure, they could build a new venue with their own money. Billionaire David Thomson, who owns True North Sports and Entertainment, is not just one of the richest men in Canada, but also in the world.
But it must be remembered the Edmonton Oilers are also owned by a billionaire. Yet, he’s not picking up the full tab for the construction of a new arena while Quebec City and the province of Quebec are fully funding the cost for a new arena so that another billionaire – Quebecor’s Pierre-Karl Peladeau – can bid for an NHL team.
How do we know True North Sports and Entertainment will build a new venue entirely with their own money?
What if they could request the municipal and/or provincial government fund part or all of the cost of a new arena? How much would that cost?
Would a majority of Winnipeg fans support the idea of their tax dollars funding that enterprise?
Finally, the most troubling question: what will happen to a Winnipeg franchise if the value of the Canadian dollar declines?
Most Winnipeg supporters love to point to the strength of the Canadian dollar as a key reason why their city can better support an NHL franchise, and why it makes more sense for the league to have a seventh franchise – or more – in Canada.
Yet whenever it is suggested the value of the “loonie” could decline within the next ten years, those same supporters either change the subject or blithely dismiss it with the audacious claim the Canadian dollar won’t significantly decline again.
It was only nine years ago the Canadian dollar was worth roughly .61 cents US. It had gotten so low that MacLean’s magazine featured a cover story suggesting Canada should adopt the American dollar as its official currency.
The “loonie” rose significantly from 2002 to 2008, topping out at one point at $1.07 US, but in the aftermath of the global economic collapse of late 2008, the value of the “loonie” plunged by March 2009 to .77 cents US.
The Canadian dollar has since recovered and as of January 2011 has been at or over par with the American dollar.
Given these fluctuations, why isn’t there more concern over an eventual decline in the value of the Canadian dollar and the potential impact on a small-market Canadian team like Winnipeg?
Granted, it could take years to fully answer those questions. Still, it would be nice to know what the contingency plans are if the value of “loonie” goes into a steep decline, if attendance suffers due to high prices and/or a mediocre product, if ownership demands government assistance in constructing a bigger arena, if the Winnipeg market struggles to keep up with its bigger market peers, and if the club cannot afford to retain their best talent or attract top caliber free agents.
As long as those questions go unanswered, I fear Winnipeg could in fifteen or twenty years face the prospect of once again losing their NHL team, and as much as it hurt the last time, the next time could be much more painful.
Perhaps the biggest question that needs to be asked is, what assurances can the NHL and True North Sports and Entertainment give the hockey fans of Winnipeg and Manitoba that they won’t face the heartbreak of losing their team again?
Until those questions are suitably answered, I intend to keep asking them.
Please educate me on the pluses and minuses on playing in American cities,compared to Canadian cities!You hear so much about players not wanting to play in Canada besides such things as weather and social opportunities for young players!
One big advantage is in most American NHL cities most players can live normal lives compared to NBA, NFL and MLB stars. There are also tax advantages in some states.
Canadian franchises in order of metro population and showing arena capacity
Toronto – 6,202,226 – 18,800
Montreal – 4,291,732 – 21,105
Vancouver – 2,642,825 – 18,900
Ottawa – 1,488,307 – 19,347
Calgary – 1,481,806 – 19,289
Edmonton – 1,418,118 – 18,347
Winnipeg – 834,638 – 15,321
Today the Canadian $ to U.S.$ is 0.74. The salaries of all NHL players must be paid in U.S. dollars
There are 14 U.S. cities/metro areas with populations in excess of 2 million which do not have an NHL franchise.
In Canada there is one city without an NHL franchise with a metro population greater than that of Winnipeg – Quebec City – 839.311 – 18,259.
The math is no better today where Winnipeg is concerned than it was when the original article was written. Hell, realistically speaking, as the game continues to gain in popularity south of the border, it’s barely tolerable for 3 other Canadian franchises.
Nice to hear from you again, George!
“Gain in popularity?”… The NHL is close to falling behind MLS in the USA and most certainly will sooner than later.
Which doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s losing in popularity. With 332 million population there are lots of potential fans to go around.
Next Canadian tv deal is going to knock the wind out of the NHL. Salary cap likely to decline. Poorly managed league by capital L Bettman. Sad times!
Have to admit I was surprised the Jets were able to resign their UFA core players to relatively long term contracts. The optics are that ownership has gone all-in on this franchise by bringing in a respectable coach and investing in star players, but if the ticket sales aren’t there then they did their best. Ownership is doing their part but they can only do so much. If this franchise folds it won’t be because of lack of effort or mismanagement. They are a competent group.
I remember watching the final game of the previous iteration of the Jets. As a child, I was confused at why a playoff team with a jam-packed arena full of passionate fans would be moving. I wasn’t familiar with the efforts of the ownership group at the time to keep the team in Winnipeg so I don’t know how that compares to the current situation but it certainly feels like history is repeating.
Let’s talk about the 6 teams that make less money than the Jets: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1925tmd/nhl_teams_by_revenue_2023forbes_any_surprises/
Also the #1 team is from a small Canadian city too but the Jets are total idiots for not getting McDavid to ensure they would be ultra successful. smh
Articles like these piss me off!
Winnipeg has a decline in attendance and the smallest population and smallest arena.
Done extremely well since they came back.
Nobody seen a pandemic coming, no one seen the interest rates skyrocking, the everyday prices of goods.
The restaurant business is still suffering in Winnipeg.
A $379,000 at today mortgage rate is $2415.86 monthly payment, prior to the interest rate increase same mortgage rate monthly payment was $1656.55 a difference of $759.31 monthly payments
One of the main concerns for the Jets is they don’t have enough corporate sponsors.
Lots of different variables to get us were we are today including how True North has handle their season tucket holders and restrictions they have put on them. Which I have posted in the pass.
Let’s not be writing off Winnipeg so quickly while giving other franchises a decade to figure things out.
Agreed! The Coyotes are playing in a 5000 seat joke of an arena to less than sellout crowds but let’s pile on Winnipeg again instead? Canada Life Centre is a great arena, which the team owns, and simply needs a bit more corporate support. The vampiric media needs to take a freaking chill pill here.
So one of the owners of the team gives an interview and expresses concern over declining attendance and it’s the “vampiric” media’s fault for reporting it?
If that isn’t hockey news worth reporting I don’t know what is.
Don’t shoot the messenger just because it is something you don’t want to be true, because it doesn’t change the fact it still true.
I hope the Jets stay, but if the fans don’t want to support it, or don’t think it is worth it, then they don’t. If the corporate $$ aren’t their, or they don’t feel there is enough value in it, they they don’t.
If they don’t the team will eventually leave. I hope they do support and they stay. We are going to find out over the next few years I suppose.
There are good media outlets, and not. Today the media is whatever you want it to be, so if you don’t like it, change what you consume.
People who blame the media for everything annoy me because it is their own choice to consume it.
“Winnipeg Jets chairman Mark Chipman says the NHL team’s future could be in jeopardy if attendance doesn’t improve. In an interview with The Athletic, Chipman said the Jets need to get back to a season ticket base of 13,000, and current attendance numbers are “not going to work over the long haul.”
Someone needs to take a pill for sure … but it’s not the “vampiric media” which is simply responding to the above statement from Chipman. What are they supposed to do? Ignore it to spare someone’s feelings?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/low-attendance-mark-chipman-athletic-interview-1.7123843
Mark Chipman is literally calling former season ticket holders for support. The owner. Not some hired staff. The owner is literally calling former season ticket holders. That says 2 things: the situation is significant, and the owner is taking it seriously.
Just because you don’t like the facts, doesn’t mean they aren’t facts.
When you’ve got the league commissioner coming to town to personally meet with corporate sponsors to drum up more support you know the situation is serious.
Caper, As The Athletic’s Jets reporter Murat Ates pointed out, the cracks in the Jets attendance were forming before the pandemic and the resultant inflation. All of it tied to playing in the NHL’s smallest market. Part of it, as Ates noted, was the franchise seemed to take the fans goodwill for granted. They assumed they would keep ponying up regardless of the quality of the product on the ice or the high cost of attending those games, which was amongst the league’s highest long before the pandemic and recent rise in the cost of living.
You’re correct about the limited base of corporate sponsers, something Ates and other columnists also pointed out. That’s going to be a significant challenge to overcome.
Chipman raised the alarm about the decline in attendance because it is a serious factor that could threaten the Jets’ ongoing existence in Winnipeg over the long term if it doesn’t improve. As Gary Bettman said when the franchise was moved to Winnipeg, they need to sell out their arena for every game to make it viable. That means they must meet their 13,000 season-ticket goal each year.
Other franchises get more time to “figure things out” because they’re in larger markets that can support them. The Jets don’t have that luxury.
It is completely disingenuous Spector that you have solely focused on the Jets. I remember you raining on the victory parade back in 2011 as well and it didn’t sit well with me. For decades I have watched the abomination in Phoenix, a city of over 7,000,000 now playing in a 5000 seat arena! Atlanta, an even bigger city, failing twice and now there’s talk of a third attempt, that’s completely idiotic at this point. The Panthers have had brutal attendance up until two seasons ago when they finally started being relevant and what happens now to Tampa as they start their rebuild? I guarantee you they will stay away in droves if they become a losing club. I remember seeing Islander games with the entire upper deck empty for multiple seasons and nary a peep about it. Americans are the real problem here. The Canadian markets completely subsidized the NHL when our dollar was par and I never heard a thank you for that and now, post covid, Winnipeg is down 3500 season tickets and you have the audacity to say ‘I told you so’??You have an incredible nerve and a total blind spot to the fickle American market
Kevin: When did I “rain on the victory parade”? I made it quite clear at the time that I was happy for Winnipeg hockey fans that they got an NHL team back and I hoped that Jets 2.0 would succeed. However, I wasn’t wrong for pointing out the challenges the club faced in the NHL’s smallest market. Those aren’t issues you could ignore or wish they wouldn’t exist.
I also made it clear in my introduction to this piece that I wasn’t saying, “I told you so”. The reason I revisited it was because it had relevance to what Mark Chipman said about the decline in season ticket sales. He made it very clear this week that the team couldn’t continue on like that over the long term. They need 13,000 season ticket holders annually. Heck, even Gary Bettman said it back when the team was moved to Winnipeg in the first place!
Don’t get mad at me because Chipman raised the alarm. All I did 13 years ago was point out the issues facing this franchise playing in the NHL’s smallest market.
“A total blind spot to the fickle American market”? Please cite one example to back up your spurious take.
The example is you NEVER have made any mention of the thousands of empty seats in a variety of American markets and I have clearly pointed out a variety of truthful examples of such. You wonder why I take offence to your concern over ‘the smallest market in the NHL’? It’s because you blithely ignore the real issue of the notoriously fickle American market and when this story comes out about TNSE doing their season ticket drive you drag out your 11 year old article of naysaying the success of the Jets 2.0 and completely ignore over a decade of sold out games and somehow completely ignore years of half filled arenas in Detroit, Miami, New Jersey, Long Island and at least a half dozen other teams that I am not going to bother listing here. It’s post-Covid, TNSE will sell those missing 3500 STH’s to the corporations and life will go on. All I am asking you to do, like I did 11 years ago when you were busy saying ‘I don’t know if this is going to work’ is to at least have some league perspective instead of singling out one Canadian team. This is the difference; Jets fans ARE passionate unlike so many down in the US, you bring your negativity down on my team and ignore the multiple problems with American teams you ARE going to get pushback, deal with it or don’t, it’s your choice. But at least answer why you have no opinion on all the American teams that the league has subsidized for decades
“The example is you NEVER have made any mention of the thousands of empty seats in a variety of American markets”
If you’ve followed my site regularly, you’d see that I’ve regularly followed the ongoing soap opera that is the Arizona Coyotes in my daily NHL Morning Coffee Headlines. Over the years, I frequently wrote about the issues facing many of the teams you noted. To accuse me of doing otherwise reflects your ignorance of my work.
Regarding post-COVID, I duly noted that but I’ve also pointed out that there were other issues at play related to being the smallest market in the NHL. I also cited The Athletic’s Jets reporter Murat Ates pointing out some of those factors that were starting to affect the Jets attendance before COVID hit.
I’ve never “singled out” one Canadian team. What was I supposed to do when the Jets owner sounds the alarm over the club’s attendance woes? Am I supposed to ignore that? Should I ignore that the situation has grown serious enough for the league commissioner to speak with the club’s corporate sponsors to drum up more support?
Kevin, you’re obviously upset because of Chipman’s comments this week and the news that Bettman will be speaking with the corporate sponsors. It appears to have open the old wounds again from when the original Jets left town.
The fact is, Chipman and Bettman have stated that this team needs consistent sellouts (including 13,000 season ticket sale annually) or they’re not going to make it over the long-term. That’s the reality of playing in the NHL’s smallest market. Getting angry at me for pointing out the blatantly obvious isn’t dumping on your team or dismissing the passion of the fan base. It’s merely citing the facts that are as relevant now as they were 13 years ago. Ignoring them won’t make them go away.
Holy Crap! How is it “raining on someone’s parade” when merely reporting on a gloomy state of the organization observation made by the frikken team chairman???
This one stirred the pot a bit, eh? FWIW, I’m a California dude, and had no idea how small the market really is. (Appreciate George O’s comment listing the Canadian city pops and arena sizes. Actually, for that matter, I appreciate all of George O’s comments — always the best haha.) I’m always wishing they’d let Quebec City back in the club and make it an even eight Canadian teams, but this issue reappearing on the radar for Winnipeg and just looking at the market sizes, I guess maybe they just need to cut it back down to an even six…
Marco (thanks for the comments … heh), there can be no doubt that a team in Quebec City would have no problem in selling out their arena, including a hefty season-ticket sale structure. They are rabid fans.
Unfortunately, the dual problem there is lack of corporate backing and the language issue which, at the very least, would make it extremely difficult for the team to attract top of the line UFAs with families who do not speak French.
The Draconian provincial language laws have even drawn the interest of the White House
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/u-s-government-concerned-about-quebec-s-french-language-rules-for-commercial-signage-1.6744353
Thanks again, George – appreciate the added context there. It’s one thing when the economics of the business override community or fan support, but municipal government compounding issues like this is a whole other can of worms.
To what you have said, George, I would add:
that for any star players the lack of corporate advertising sponsorship that national, or at least very large, companies can offer;
the weather and
taxes and
as Lyle said, fan/media scrutiny.
Quebec is not alone in the above, which is why so many Canadian cities are on no trade lists.
Folks from outside the market saying take a chill pill.
Winnipeg fans are loyal and Chipman didn’t ask Bettman to come here.
Go worry about Phoenix or Florida where you can pick up a tick on the cheap.
Funny when the league was running the coyotes they had no problem taking profits from the Jets to help run the team in Arizona.
As I mentioned before, True North mishandled and lost some season ticket holders because of theirs treatment.
Good friend had 4 seats to he used for promo, the other for himself.
Tried to move from 300 section to the 200 sections, Sent emails and request no replies. Asked to be put on a list wouldn’t do it. Can’t leave the building and reenter.
A group of 4 friends had season tickets, 2 opt out, the other 2 wanted to buy their 2 seats and keep for themselves. Told they needed to pay a $1500 transfer fee. They cancel their own tickets. All tickets in the 100 sections.
There was a story ran in the papers about the above situations, my friend said he thought it was just them and couldn’t believe how many other season ticket holders had the same experiences.
True North needs to repair some of their customer service issues and understand you can no longer hold a gun to the season ticket holders head.
This is why the cracks where there prior, not the economy. It was the treatment of the season ticket holders.
The issue today is simply disposable income, there isn’t much.
Yes Lyle I know you said you where happy for Winnipeg but you still took the time to rain on their parade. You may not see it that way. I do! It’s like say “hay Matthew’s I happy you scored 70 plus goals, but your going out in the first round.”
“Yes Lyle I know you said you where happy for Winnipeg but you still took the time to rain on their parade. You may not see it that way. I do! It’s like say “hay Matthew’s I happy you scored 70 plus goals, but your going out in the first round.”
And you couldn’t be more wrong, Caper. Cite specific examples where I denigrated the Jets or wished ill upon them. Cite one example where I hoped for them to fail
Unlike you, I don’t shut my eyes to bad news and wish it would go away. In my job, I note the good as well as the bad. I take no joy in the latter.
By the way, ask yourself why Bettman is taking the time to come to meet with the club’s corporate sponsors to drum up support for the Jets.
As per The Athletic’s Chris Johnston:
“Chipman acknowledged that the Jets are on the radar at league’s head office for reasons they’d rather not be.
“They pay attention,” he said. “They see the numbers. They see where the league’s at and where we’re at. And we’re an outlier right now. So, rightfully, they want to know, what are you doing? What’s going on? What happened and what are you doing about it?”
Bettman is scheduled to visit Winnipeg on Tuesday and get a firsthand look at the situation, meeting with key corporate sponsors and potentially even addressing fans directly before that night’s game against the St. Louis Blues.”
No re-entry policy is an NHL policy, just like the no big bags or purses policy.
TNSE 100% took the season tickets holders for granted though. I still have my season tickets but I know many, many people who gave their’s up, partially because of True North not caring about them.
Cincinnati, population 308,000 has the Reds and Bengals.
Milwaukee, population 577,000 has the Brewers and Bucks
Buffalo, population 632,000 has the Bills and Sabres.
New Orleans, population 687.000 has the Saints and Pelicans.
Winnipeg made some big signings eventually but fans were left hanging for a long time expecting a player dump. It’s hard for fans to remain rabid when ownership doesn’t look hungry to win.
Having lived through the birth growth and sad death of the Expos there is a chicken or the egg in te sense of ownership and fans.
The same goes for CFL in Montreal which had packed stadiums at times and slow death to closing the franchise.
I went to Als games, sat over the Expos dugout, went to deafeningly loud stadiums to ghost towns and really felt abandoned by ownership.
Since we’re talking metro populations when it comes to Canadian cities I think it’s only fair to do the same for the U.S. cities you list – here it shows 1,787,000 for Cincinnati, 1,463,000 for Milwaukee, 886,000 for Buffalo and 1,021,000 for New Orleans
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/largest-cities-by-population
Lastly the new expansion fee is to be said 1 or 2 Billion dollars.
Not a chance Bettman relocates a team and leave the expansion fee on the table.