SPECTOR’S NOTE: The following was written on May 31, 2011, following the rebirth of the Winnipeg Jets following the sale and relocation of the Atlanta Thrashers. I felt it worthwhile to revisit this piece after Jets owner Mark Chipman raised concerns earlier this week about the club’s declining attendance.
I didn’t foresee a pandemic and the resulting inflation that would affect the Jets’ ticket sales. Nevertheless, most of the issues I mentioned remain relevant.
I’m not trying to say “I told you so” and I’m not taking any kind of victory lap here. I wanted this incarnation of the Jets to succeed and I still do. However, my worries then (and now) are genuine and relevant because of Winnipeg’s place as the NHL’s smallest market.
I’m interested in what you think about this situation. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section below.

Winnipeg Jets owner Mark Chipman (NHL Images).
The sale of the Atlanta Thrashers to True North Sports and Entertainment and the relocation of the team to Winnipeg, Manitoba, resulted in euphoria in a city that was getting back NHL hockey fifteen years after their beloved Jets were sold and relocated to Phoenix in 1996
Since then, hockey fans in that city and province dreamed of the day when an NHL franchise might return. What at one time seemed a mere pipe dream finally became reality, and they have every right to enjoy the moment.
Long-time readers of my work – either on this blog, my website, or my Foxsports.com column – know I have expressed serious doubts over the long-term viability of an NHL franchise in Winnipeg.
I know how much Manitobans in general, and Winnipeggers in particular, love hockey, and remember well how much heartbreak there was when the beloved Jets were sold and moved to Phoenix.
It’s been said an NHL franchise in Winnipeg would enjoy considerable fan and corporate support, that it would do so much better than any struggling southern U.S. team, and this time would buck the odds and silence doubters like me.
I don’t wish any ill will toward Winnipeg or Manitoba, and genuinely hope they’ll beat the odds this time around that the league will never abandon Winnipeg again. I am happy for everyone in Manitoba that you’re getting back an NHL franchise and wish them and their team the very best of luck
I’m not trying to rain on the parade, folks, but the questions I’ve raised over the years remain unanswered.
Can a city whose current metropolitan population (just over 764,000) accounts for over half the total population of the province (just over 1.2 million) – making it the smallest market in the league by a wide margin – sustain an NHL franchise for a prolonged period?
Can it continue to do so if that population grows by the same level (just over 70K) over the next fifteen years as it did over the last fifteen?
What proof is there Winnipeg fans will support their new franchise if it continues to struggle through the same level of mediocrity it did in Atlanta? It’s one thing for fans to say it, it’s another to put your money where your mouth is.
The high cost of attending games should be a serious concern for Winnipeg hockey fans.
The average fan cost index (FCI) for a family of four to attend an NHL game this season was $313.68. The lowest for a Canadian team was $328.92 (Ottawa), while the cost in the smallest market (Edmonton), with the smallest venue, was $346.46.
True North Sports and Entertainment chairman Mark Chipman has said the size of the MTS Centre means they’ll have to charge higher-than-average ticket prices for NHL games. TSN reports ticket prices for the franchise’s first season will be between $39 – $129 per game, with the average ticket price next season being $82.00, the third highest in the NHL, which could push the total FCI up toward $370.00 per game.
Over time, that expensive cost of attending NHL games could adversely affect attendance, especially season ticket sales – the lifeblood of NHL franchises – regardless of the team’s performance.
Just how prepared are Winnipeg and Manitoba hockey fans for that sticker shock?
How willing could fans be to pay higher than the league average consistently?
Are they willing to keep pace with the ever-increasing costs of attending NHL games? Can they afford it over the long term?
And don’t expect those prices to remain stagnant, or to make only tiny increases in the coming years. They’re only going to go higher, pushing the FCI up with it.
If attendance suffers from a higher-than-average FCI, will True North lower prices to attract more fans? And by how much? Is it even feasible for True North to do so?
Chipman has also said the player payroll will likely be in the mid-range of the salary cap. Wouldn’t that adversely affect management’s efforts to maintain a competitive team?
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Jets have been near the upper range of the salary cap several times, including this season.
For how long can a Winnipeg franchise continue to remain a “mid-range” salary cap team?
Would it be able to keep up with a rising salary cap if it remains tied to revenue under the next CBA?
Doesn’t that suggest the risk of reaching the point where they could struggle to remain over the mandated salary cap minimum?
Wouldn’t that raise concerns regarding the club’s ability to retain its best players, or attract top free-agent talent?
Back in April, when it appeared the Phoenix Coyotes would be moved to Winnipeg, goalie Ilya Bryzgalov, projected as the best goalie potentially available in this summer’s free-agent market, said he’d refuse to follow the club there.
Could Winnipeg prove unattractive to NHL free agents, regardless of how well the club performs in the coming years?
Chipman has previously said the MTS Centre cannot be expanded, meaning at some point – likely ten-fifteen years from now – a new arena with more seating capacity (over 18,000) might have to be built.
How long can the MTS Centre (now Canada Life Centre) remain a suitable venue for an NHL team before True North Sports and Entertainment starts suggesting they need a bigger one?
Sure, they could build a new venue with their own money. Billionaire David Thomson, who owns True North Sports and Entertainment, is not just one of the richest men in Canada, but also in the world.
But it must be remembered the Edmonton Oilers are also owned by a billionaire. Yet, he’s not picking up the full tab for the construction of a new arena while Quebec City and the province of Quebec are fully funding the cost for a new arena so that another billionaire – Quebecor’s Pierre-Karl Peladeau – can bid for an NHL team.
How do we know True North Sports and Entertainment will build a new venue entirely with their own money?
What if they could request the municipal and/or provincial government fund part or all of the cost of a new arena? How much would that cost?
Would a majority of Winnipeg fans support the idea of their tax dollars funding that enterprise?
Finally, the most troubling question: what will happen to a Winnipeg franchise if the value of the Canadian dollar declines?
Most Winnipeg supporters love to point to the strength of the Canadian dollar as a key reason why their city can better support an NHL franchise, and why it makes more sense for the league to have a seventh franchise – or more – in Canada.
Yet whenever it is suggested the value of the “loonie” could decline within the next ten years, those same supporters either change the subject or blithely dismiss it with the audacious claim the Canadian dollar won’t significantly decline again.
It was only nine years ago the Canadian dollar was worth roughly .61 cents US. It had gotten so low that MacLean’s magazine featured a cover story suggesting Canada should adopt the American dollar as its official currency.
The “loonie” rose significantly from 2002 to 2008, topping out at one point at $1.07 US, but in the aftermath of the global economic collapse of late 2008, the value of the “loonie” plunged by March 2009 to .77 cents US.
The Canadian dollar has since recovered and as of January 2011 has been at or over par with the American dollar.
Given these fluctuations, why isn’t there more concern over an eventual decline in the value of the Canadian dollar and the potential impact on a small-market Canadian team like Winnipeg?
Granted, it could take years to fully answer those questions. Still, it would be nice to know what the contingency plans are if the value of “loonie” goes into a steep decline, if attendance suffers due to high prices and/or a mediocre product, if ownership demands government assistance in constructing a bigger arena, if the Winnipeg market struggles to keep up with its bigger market peers, and if the club cannot afford to retain their best talent or attract top caliber free agents.
As long as those questions go unanswered, I fear Winnipeg could in fifteen or twenty years face the prospect of once again losing their NHL team, and as much as it hurt the last time, the next time could be much more painful.
Perhaps the biggest question that needs to be asked is, what assurances can the NHL and True North Sports and Entertainment give the hockey fans of Winnipeg and Manitoba that they won’t face the heartbreak of losing their team again?
Until those questions are suitably answered, I intend to keep asking them.