NHL Rumor Mill – March 25, 2024
A look at some of this summer’s notable restricted free agents in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
SPORTSNET: Luke Fox recently listed the latest rumors and reports regarding this summer’s top-12 restricted free agents.
The Vancouver Canucks recently offered an eight-year, $52-million contract extension ($6.5 million average annual value) to Filip Hronek. However, the 26-year-old defenseman’s camp rejected that proposal. Fox believes the Canucks want to keep Hronek’s salary below Quinn Hughes’ $7.85 million AAV but the blueline could try to push it into the $7 million range.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Hronek is completing a three-year deal with an AAV of $4.4 million. He’s enjoying a career-high performance in his contract year with 45 points in 71 games. Hronek has arbitration rights and is a year away from UFA eligibility. It could cost the Canucks between $7 million and $7.5 million annually to keep him in the fold.
Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (NHL Images).
Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider is completing his entry-level contract. Fox doubted that Wings general manager Steve Yzerman would attempt to lowball the 23-year-old blueliner. He speculated Seider could get an eight-year deal worth $8.6 million annually.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Seider is the Wings’ best defenseman and a key piece of their rebuilding roster, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2021-22. He’s yet to reach his playing prime. A long-term deal at $8.6 million AAV could become a bargain over time.
The Buffalo Sabres trading Casey Mittelstadt to the Colorado Avalanche earlier this month was based on the belief they would be unable to re-sign him to a long-term extension. Following the trade, the 25-year-old center pointed out how much the Avalanche wanted him by giving up defenseman Bowen Byram in return.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Mittelstadt seems to be settling in well as the Avalanche’s second-line center. A strong performance over the rest of the regular season and in the 2024 playoffs will ensure he’ll get a lucrative long-term extension.
While Fox thinks Seider will get a long-term deal from the Wings, he believes Lucas Raymond could end up with a short-term contract. Like Seider, he’s completing his entry-level deal. Fox pointed out that Yzerman signed Alex DeBrincat last summer to a four-year contract averaging $7.875 million per season.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’ll be interesting to see how Yzerman handles Raymond’s contract situation. The 21-year-old winger leads the Wings in scoring with career highs in goals (24), assists (36) and points (60), but he has had bouts of inconsistency in his short NHL career.
Fox wondered if the Carolina Hurricanes will attempt to sign Seth Jarvis to a bridge deal coming out of his entry-level contract or bet big that the 22-year-old winger will break out and sign him to a long-term deal.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: After struggling at times during his sophomore campaign, Jarvis has played well this season for the Hurricanes, sitting third in scoring with a career-high 57 points. I’d say bet big and lock him up long-term. A bridge deal could make him more expensive to sign down the road.
Despite Thomas Harley’s 40-point performance this season, Fox speculates that Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill could sign the 22-year-old defenseman to a bridge deal coming out of his entry-level contract. He noted that Nill did the same with winger Jason Robertson.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I think Harley will get a bridge deal. This is his first full season after splitting the past two seasons between the Stars and their AHL affiliate.
Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman refused to comment on an early March report claiming contract extension talks had begun. However, he didn’t deny the report.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Swayman signed an affordable one-year deal last summer due to the Bruins’ limited cap space for this season. He’s going to get a big raise over his $3.475 million and will likely take over as their full-time starter next season. There’s already speculation that his goalie partner Linus Ullmark could be traded during the offseason.
Fox noted the emergence of Quinton Byfield this season leaves Los Angeles Kings GM Rob Blake facing a big decision. He could sign the 20-year-old forward to a bridge deal or attempt to ink him to a long-term contract. Fox suggested the latter might come in between $6.5 and $7 million annually.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: On the one hand, it’s tough to justify a lucrative long-term deal based on one good year. On the other, it’ll cost a lot more than $7 million to sign Byfield coming off a bridge deal if he continues to improve as projected. He’s steadily improved with each season.
Hurricanes winger Martin Necas is completing a two-year bridge deal worth $3 million annually and has arbitration rights. The 25-year-old forward is in a position to justify a significant raise.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Necas has surfaced in trade rumors over the past two seasons. He might end up getting that raise from another club.
Turning to the remaining players on Fox’s list, Matty Beniers’ struggles in his sophomore season could see the 2023 Calder Trophy winner getting a short-term bridge deal from the Seattle Kraken.
Arizona Coyotes defenseman Sean Durzi will seek a lucrative offer coming off his bridge contract. He’s on pace for a career-best performance.
The Buffalo Sabres could try to sign Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to a mid-term deal. He’s performed well this season but it’s a small sample size to justify a long-term contract.
If Vancouver get Hronek below Hughes they have done good
I would imagine Carolina is buying out Kotkaniemi. They may throw in a pick and a prospect to a team with cap space to take on his contact, (Chicago for example). They’ll want the extra space to secure Necas and Jarvis.
I don’t think Carolina will buy out Kotkaniemi. He is only 23, a center, plays a 200 ft game, has good skill and still has upside potential. If Carolina chose to trade him there are teams that would take a chance on his development. I think his buyout cost still being 1/3 enhances his trade value.
Carolina was patient with the development of Necas when he was 23 and it paid off. I think Kotkaniemi is ahead of where Necas was at the same point.
I agree with Lyle, Carolina will lock up Jarvis long term.
If Carolina can sign Guentzel and Jarvis then Necas may be the one traded.
Hard to imagine that Craig
Buyout does save around $4M in Cap for the next 6 years; and only followed by 6 years of about $0.8 M in dead cap (when cap ceiling is astronomical by then).
That said; it’s throwing away $10 M in cash; and seeing as Kokenimi has to be replaced on roster ; with league min at $0.8 M; actual Cap savings are $3.2 M and a “newbie” league minimum player won’t be as good as Kokeniemi
He is not playing to cap hit now ; but players can and do have down years
If Canes are willing to throw away $10 Mcash for nothing; the better move is to retain 1/3 (same $10 M); but get a pretty fair return for Kokeniemi (then at just $3.2 M Cap hit)
Waddell owes huge Penguins for the absolute public flogging he gave Dubas (and therefore Penguins).
So, retain 1/3 on Kokeniemi, and Waddell can have Accairi , Eller; and Nieto
Wow, it sounds like a lot of teams will very shortly be in the same cap bind that Toronto is in.
No not really. Players finishing their ELC can easily sign a bridge contract that will end as a RFA so the team will have both a better idea of how or if they fit in as well as know the player better and can then make up their mind on how to sign him based on what they have seen and know. Especially when it comes to young unknown players.
That approach is a lot better than suggested by writers.
Harley and Byfield are prime examples of good targets for offer sheets
Take the gamble and make an offer that either Dallas or LA can’t/won’t or shouldn’t match
Compensation due per AAV of offer:
$4.3 M – $6.4 M; 1st & 3rd
$6.4 – $8.6 M; 1st,2nd, 3rd
$8.6 M -$10.7 M; 2 firsts, 2nd, 3rd
All picks must be “own” picks not acquired picks of following year’s (‘25) draft
Penguins have 1st & 3rd in ‘25 if they elect ( or if they finish outside bottom 10 teams where it is automatic) to give ‘24 1st rounder to SJ
They’d need to make a side deal with Montreal (long shot) to gain back their 2nd (‘25) lost in the Karlsson deal (Petry and 2nd went to Habs)
Does 7 @$6.4 M get you (accepted by player and NOT matched by current team) either Byfield or Harley?
Doubtful
I do believe there is a tipping point in that $6.4 M – $8.6 M range where Kings or Dallas can’t/won’t/shouldn’t match
This move (offer sheet) is not a “rebuild” move as your getting a NHL player just about to enter prime years
Assuming they’re open to signing offer sheets. Many RFAs aren’t, preferring to re-sign with their current clubs. And don’t forget, offer sheets are rare beasties as most GMs prefer not to go that route.
Agree on that
To me the fact that they are rare is just crazy.
Many teams are using the nuances (small print ?) of the CBA to their advantage (E.g. LTIR ); why not use this (Offer sheet)
I would love to see more of these
It’s creative management of assets. No harm no foul if you approach an RFA (during window of course) and make a verbal offer. If there is zero interest, move on. If there is at least some interest, work out the numbers where it likely ends up in a position where the player WILL sign; you can fit in; and the other GM either can’t or won’t match; and you get a proven NHL player at the expense of future picks (which have no certainty to them).
A first in ‘25 (if likely in the 10-20 slot) , won’t play until the following season (26/27) at best, and maybe not until 27/28. A pick in the back 3rd of the ‘25 first round won’t play until 27/28 (if they play at all). The 2nds and 3rds shift probability of ever becoming an NHLer down; and if/when they make it;almost definitely in the 27/28 or later seasons.
Yes there a have been exceptions to those forecasts; like ROR (drafted 2nd round and playing a full year right out of the draft [fall of his draft year])…. But these are very rare
With the offer sheet, you’re getting a proven player, on the rise, likely 21-24 years old…. Prime playing years still coming.
The gamble really only is of slightly over paying in the early years (of a 7 year offer sheet) if the player continues on trend;
or to a much lesser probability of overpaying a bit for 7 years if their play falls off marginally;
or the very low probability of wasting all 7 years with a high Cap hit for a player that literal plummets in performance (very very rare)
All acquisitions are a gamble.This type is one I’d love to see more and more of.
Trades are difficult and you have to find a seller and have the proper assets (and wiling to give them up); and you have to dance around potential NMCs and NTCs
This is a “free agent” (albeit a restricted one )…. if you want them… make an offer
Would love to see Byfield or Harley on the Penguins
A move like that also washes away some doubts I’m sure that Crosby is having
Re; Kings young Centre
An offer sheet for Quinton Byfield who will be 22 at the start of the season…
it could look like 7 yrs +$9.5M to $10.5M Range❓
QB, he is only getting better and better, he is big strong and hard to stop with Lots of potential …..
in Games, 68 Goals 19 Ass 32 for 51pts
Look at Pierre-Luc Dubois at 25 yrs old he has been a bust in LA..⁉️ @ $8.5M
Games 70, Goals 13, Ass 19= 34 points
A Rebuilding team could do that who has extra picks
2X1st picks & a 2nd & 3rd pick to get QB to speed up the re-build