NHL Rumor Mill – March 30, 2024
Will the Canucks re-sign defensemen Filip Hronek and Nikita Zadorov? Could the Blackhawks target defensemen in this summer’s free-agent market? Check out the latest in the NHL Rumor Mill.
UPDATES ON HRONEK AND ZADOROV
SEKERES AND PRICE: Frank Seravalli recently appeared on the podcast where he discussed Vancouver Canucks defensemen Filip Hronek and Nikita Zadorov.
Hronek is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer. Seravalli believes the 26-year-old blueliner has played an important role in the Canucks’ improvement this season. He believes management shouldn’t have any issues paying him an average annual value of $8 million on an eight-year deal.
That would exceed the $7.85 million annually being earned by Quinn Hughes through 2026-27. However, he doubted that the Canucks captain would be upset that Hronek would make $150K more than him per season, pointing out that he’ll likely get $14 million annually on his next contract.
Vancouver Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek (NHL Images).
Seravalli believes paying Hronek $8 million per season for eight years won’t hurt the Canucks cap down the road. By 2028-29, the cap should be around $120 million to $125 million. “$8 million is nothing by that point,” he said.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Hronek is completing a three-year contract with an average annual value of $4.4 million. He’s enjoying a career-best performance with 40 assists and 45 points in 73 games and should exceed the 50-point plateau before the end of the season.
The Canucks will sign Hronek to a long-term deal to avoid arbitration. I don’t think it’s a problem for them if he’s seeking around $8 million annually. They could quibble a bit over the length of the deal but it will likely come in at seven or eight years.
Quinn signed his current contract following his sophomore season. It was a hefty raise coming off his entry-level deal. I doubt he’ll care if Hronek makes a little more than he does over the next two years. By July 2026, the Canucks captain will likely have signed an expensive extension worth far more than what Hronek will be earning.
Zadorov, meanwhile, is finishing up a two-year contract with an AAV of $3.75 million. Seravalli doesn’t think the Canucks will re-sign the 28-year-old defenseman.
Seravalli believes Zadorov’s asking price will be around $5 million annually. He said the Calgary Flames knew his number would start with a five, which made it easier for them to trade him to Vancouver earlier this year.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Canucks had to boost their defense corps in the short term. They were willing to make that short-term move for Zadorov even at the risk of losing him this summer to free agency.
They could try to keep Zadorov following this season. However, they won’t have enough room to meet Zadorov’s asking price if they sign Hronek to a deal worth $8 million annually.
LATEST BLACKHAWKS SPECULATION
THE ATHLETIC: Scott Powers believed the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks are expected to add forwards to their roster in the offseason. He also thinks they could make a change or two among their defensemen.
Powers doesn’t expect the Blackhawks to sign a big-name free agent to an expensive long-term contract. They’ll likely be interested in short-term options.
Those who fall into that category include Brenden Dillon of the Winnipeg Jets, Justin Schultz of the Seattle Kraken, Ian Cole of the Vancouver Canucks and Chris Tanev of the Dallas Stars.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Those defensemen are in their mid-thirties. They’re at the stage of their career where they could be receptive to short-term deals. One or two could bring much-needed experience and leadership to the rebuilding Blackhawks blueline.
Tanev might not be available to the Blackhawks. The 34-year-old shutdown defenseman drew plenty of interest at the trade deadline from contenders like the Stars. If he doesn’t stay in Dallas after this season, the clubs that lost out to the Stars could revisit their interest this summer.
zadorov and tanev could very possibly end up in Toronto to replace brodie,Timmons and lillegran.
Zadorov won’t end up in Toronto if he wants $5+ million on his next contract.
Tanev will be looking for some term (3 years?) and is already 34 and will be 35 in December.
Leafs should be very careful.
I think that the Nucks may not have the space to sign Linholm either. They will have $16M to sign 9 players, I don’t think they want to give Lindholm nearly $9M of that! Maybe they hang on to Myers and sign him to 2 x $3M.
There is also the less likely route of trading Hronek (RFA) and re-signing Lindholm, Myers and Zadorov.
I think Y had the foresight to trade Hronek and not have to deal with his contract as well as the Seider and Raymond contracts at the same time.
$14M per season? There’s definitely going to be a lock out sooner than later.
Why, Brock? Salaries are tied to the cap, which is what the owners wanted, and what’s been in place for nearly 20 years. Hughes getting $14 million annually starting in a season where the salary cap will be well over $100 million isn’t going to be an issue for the owners.
With the next TV deal likely much lower than the current one, the owners are going to start to feel the pinch. Considering every time they’ve locked the players out, the NHL has gotten massive concessions from the PA, I won’t be shocked if they use the same tactics. Obviously as a fan I don’t want a lock out, but it is what took to get the salary cap in the first place, so it’s a bit of a necessary evil (sadly).
“With the next TV deal likely much lower than the current one,”
What leads you to that conclusion? Every TV deal since the imposition of the cap has been better than the last.
“Considering every time they’ve locked the players out, the NHL has gotten massive concessions from the PA, I won’t be shocked if they use the same tactics.”
There was no lockout in 2020 when they agreed to the MOU that extended the CBA to 2026. Granted, the pandemic occurred at that time, but talks between the two sides were already well underway before then with no sign of the sabre rattling that led to the last three lockouts. Considering how much revenue has risen to the benefit of the owners, and with players salaries tied to that increase in revenue, the owners have little reason to stage another lockout. Especially when you’ve got three more American cities (Houston, Salt Lake City, Atlanta) looking for NHL franchises.
“Obviously as a fan I don’t want a lock out, but it is what took to get the salary cap in the first place, so it’s a bit of a necessary evil (sadly).”
The state of the league before the salary cap was very different 20 years ago compared to today. With hockey-related revenue stronger than ever (especially following the pandemic), the owners have no reason to go to those draconian lengths of a season-killing lockout. Again, there is no sign of the sabre-rattling that led to the last three lockouts coming from the league and not a peep from the players.
Ya, it doesn’t make much sense that the next TV deal will be less.
A question I have is will the streaming companies jump in? Netflix, Apple and Amazon have some $$ and are always competing for content. At very least, it could drive the prices up for all sports leagues.
Fair points, but I never said a lock out would be season ending. We’ll see how things go, especially with the TV revenue set to decline.
It will be interesting to see what transpires from the aftermath of the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy as that will affect regional broadcasts for 12 US based teams. However, don’t discount the possibility that most of them find suitable alternatives. Compared with the other revenue streams generated by the NHL, the effect could be marginal. It probably won’t adversely affect the overall cap as projections indicate it could reach $92 million for 2025-26.
Rogers signed a 12-year, $5.2 billion rights deal in November of 2013, which runs out at the end of the 25-26 season. By all accounts, the deal was a massive money loser for Rogers, there’s no reason to think anyone is going to pony up half a billion $s a year for the national NHL rights in Canada. This isn’t about rinky binky Diamond Sports Group or local broadcasting rights, this is about a potential $200M-$300M less in TV revenue, per season, for the NHL.
Perhaps, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Hockey is still being king in Canada, Bell Media is likely looking forward to getting the NHL rights for TSN. It might not be as expensive as the Rogers deal, but on a much shorter term, it could still prove lucrative. And with the big money deals being made from its lucrative new American television deals and other streams such as sports betting (which they’re pushing hard) and streaming services, it’s unlikely to put much of a dent into the league’s HRR.
The salary cap only declined once, in 2012-13, and that was because it was a lockout year. It remained at $81.5 million in 2020-21 and 2021-22 because of the pandemic. However, revenue quickly bounced back soon afterward. The only reason the cap remain flat was because of the players’ debt of HRR owed to the owners from the pandemic. It’s jumping by $4.4 million as per the MOU in 2020 to $87.5 million (perhaps more if both sides agree to it) and by another $4.4 million for 2025-26. After that, it’s a new CBA with no lingering artificial limitation on the cap ceiling but purely tied to HRR as it was before the pandemic.
Yzerman has the foresight to build a winning team before rewarding players with top end contracts.
The goal is to win a Stanley Cup or at least a highly competitive team and getting handicapped with high contracts on players who don’t bring the goods.
Most GMs pay for the “future” while some are saying show me.
Edmonton, Toronto and Vancouver are paying through the nose for excellent players who have yet to deliver.
Add Buffalo and Ottawa to the list of teams handing out Set For Life contracts well before any success. I really respect Chevy for his ability to extend and bridge players to reasonable deals. Josh Morrissey is still under contract for four more seasons after this one at $6.25M! Masterful stuff.
Paying your top 3 or 4 players half the cap is a problem for sure. But every top contender for the Cup does it.
I don’t like it anymore than you do, HF30, but what GM is going to let McDavid or Matthews walk rather than pay them? And what big name player has taken a meaningful team friendly contract to help the rest of the roster?
The Red Wings don’t have a player making 10 million plus, but they also are presently outside playoffs.
The only way this is going to change is if longshot teams start winning the Cup with a cap balanced roster. The only team that is close to that is the Canucks. They aren’t going to win the Cup, and if they hand out 14 million to Quinn Hughes they will find themselves in the same trap.
Meaningful player to take a huge discount to help team try to win?
Let me think.
Oh ya Patrice Bergeron
LJ,
A Stanley Cup team needs scorers, but they don’t need to be Art Ross contenders.
They need a strong balanced D but don’t need a Norris winner.
They need a strong G but not the Vezina winner.
A balanced group of players with a winning culture who play for the logo wins championships.
It remains to be seen if HuGo are building that in Montreal, but that appears to be the road they are taking, culture, character and value.
As a GM I’d rather have 2 30-35 goal leaders at reasonable contract than one Matthews or McDavid.
You’re preaching to the converted, HF30.
But as I said above, that is not how GMs or players look at things. Mrbruin4’s example of Bergeron is a rare example of a meaningful hometown discount, and it didn’t bring results so it is unlikely to be adopted.
Waiting for the “give me the money first, now” approach to change, and reverting back to a team first mentality, is like leaving the landing lights on for Amelia Earhart.
Seems to me the best deals are the ones where very good players get signed to long terms deals coming out of entry level and by the time they hit their 24, 25, 26 yr old seasons they hit their prime and out perform the AAV as the cap has gone up considerably, which it has consistently done, when there hasn’t been a pandemic. That’s the bet teams make, all of them. Every. Single. One. Get it right, you do well. Get it wrong you don’t. If your best guys don’t get paid, they don’t stay. Best players win.
BUF just bet on Cozens, Thompson at C, and their D. Passed on Mittelstadt, who they bridged, and now will cost a fortune to resign. We’ll see if it works out.
I’m thinking the pandemic flat cap years might be skewing our perception.
Even with my B’s, Bergy, March, Krecji all signed long term deals at close to going rate, then looked like bargains. Bergy’s last short term deals, with bonuses were different, he did it to try and win another one.
And what has Detroit accomplished so far? Nothing right? If that’s so, how is one better than the other? Pay a bit now or more later? Is either better or more or less the same? Look I cheat for a team that hasn’t won a cup in over half a century, I clearly don’t know what’s better or what ….simply because I’ve seen both systems used and other than this teams version is more record setting the results are pretty much the same.
Not sure what dman will sign in Chicago; I think it depends on who wants to chase the cup and who wants to chase the dollar.
I thought Nick Foligno would chase the cup; however, he chose the dollar and there is nothing wrong with taken the money.
Chicago is the perfect place for someone of Nick’s character to land. He’ll be a tremendous help in refacing the franchise with people of sound ethics and strong morals.
You can only have so many plumbers on the roster! Who else do you think was going to give Foligno a contract with an AAV of 4 million!People of sound ethics and morals,I thought that was reserved for priests!
Nah. They need good people leading the way after the fallout. Nick fits the bill.
Sop, Foligno is the perfect player for Chicago.
Chicago isn’t the perfect place for Foligno. A stanley cup contender would be.
With that said no other team was giving Foligno a $4m contract.
Agree 100%. I’d probably do the same. Most likely lead to an after player career as well.
Nikita Zadorov.. would look good in a Bruins uniform