NHL Rumor Mill – April 8, 2024
More speculation about Sidney Crosby’s future plus the latest on the Flames and Blue Jackets in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
THE LATEST SIDNEY CROSBY SPECULATION
NEW YORK POST: Larry Brooks noted there is some trepidation that Sidney Crosby might leave the Pittsburgh Penguins. He indicated that next season will be Crosby’s 20th with the Penguins. He cited Martin Brodeur and Mike Modano as two stars who changed teams after 20 years.
If Crosby wants out, Brooks speculates he’ll let Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas know at the end of this season. That would allow Dubas time during the summer to trade Crosby to a contender like Colorado, Tampa Bay or perhaps Vegas.
However, the majority opinion expects the 36-year-old Penguins captain will sign a contract extension early this summer ahead of an attempted accelerated roster reconstruction.
Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: That is the overall consensus among the pundits but it hasn’t stopped some folks from playing “What If”?
Everything I’ve read and heard coming out of Pittsburgh has Crosby signing an extension before the start of next season to finish his career as a Penguin. Crosby could decide to chase a fourth Stanley Cup ring somewhere else but I think he’s staying put.
WHAT NEXT FOR THE FLAMES?
THE SCORE: Josh Wegman looked at what could be in store for the Calgary Flames after missing the playoffs for the second straight season.
Wegman doesn’t advocate for Flames GM Craig Conroy to tear down his roster. Nevertheless, he must avoid handing out long-term contracts to aging players and focus on bringing more youth into the lineup.
Trade candidates could include goaltender Jacob Markstrom and 2025 pending UFAs Andrew Mangiapane and Andrei Kuzmenko. Wegman noted the New Jersey Devils’ interest in Markstrom and how it became a prominent distraction this season.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Conroy signaled his intentions when he traded pending UFAs Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. It will likely be more of a retool than a rebuild.
Markstrom’s no-movement clause gives him full control over his situation. Depending on which story you believe, Flames ownership spiked a potential trade to the Devils because the Flames were still in wildcard contention. It’s anticipated Markstrom could agree to go to a contender this summer. Whether it’s the Devils or somewhere else remains to be seen.
Mangiapane and Kuzmenko could hit the trade block this summer.
Wegman recommends extending Yegor Sharangovich. He’s eligible next summer for UFA status but the 25-year-old forward could still be part of the solution when the Flames turn the corner in a few years.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Sharangovich was among the bright spots for the Flames this season, reaching 30 goals for the first time in his career. Maybe Conroy will extend him this summer on a five-year deal worth around $5.5 million.
The Flames could also weaponize their cap space by targeting teams looking to clear space and are willing to include draft picks and prospects in the deal. They could sign playoff-type UFAs to one-year contracts and flip them at next year’s deadline for draft picks.
WHAT WILL THE BLUE JACKETS DO THIS SUMMER?
DAILY FACEOFF: Frank Seravalli and Tyler Yaremchuk recently discussed what could be in store this summer for the Columbus Blue Jackets under a new general manager.
Seravalli thinks the Jackets should look at moving on from some of their veteran players to make room for their younger talent. He pointed out that they haven’t won anything with their current group. Apart from Zach Werenski and perhaps Boone Jenner, none of their veterans should be safe.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Easier said than done for some of those veterans.
Forwards Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine carry expensive contracts and haven’t played as well as expected.
Goaltender Elvis Merzlikins made headlines in January regarding an on-again, off-again trade request. However, he’s had his struggles and carries a $5.4 million AAV through 2026-27.
Defenseman Damon Severson carries a $6.25 million AAV through 2030-31 and has a full no-trade clause.
good luck to the new CBJ GM on getting rid of Laine, Merzikins or Severson…
Or Gaudreau. 11 goals so far for 9.5 million. A candidate for the worst contract in hockey.
The splitting up of marner and Mathews to provide better scoring balance may also impact future contract negotiations with marner. I suspect marner will try to get a number beyond his worth giving the leaf s the opportunity to get him to accept less or be traded.if mathews is successful without mitch it won’t that big a deal to him and they can use the extra cap to make a trade for an accomplished right winger.
I would say that the Leafs should set a maximum number for Marner in advance of negotiations.
$12.5 x whatever term he wishes.
Any ask beyond that and the Leafs should ask Marner if there are any teams he would agree to be traded to and then give those teams the right to negotiate an extension with him.
Actually CBJ would have teams very interested in the Vets like Elvis and Severson with the RD shortage and Goalie issues a lot of teams have. CBJ probably has no issue on retaining salary for Elvis, and maybe even a $1M on Severson for the right return of a 1st and a good NHLer on a short deal.
I think they are stuck with Laine till he is seen performing well again.
Markstrom, Ullmark and Saros could be trade candidates this summer. Merzlikins will be much further down most teams’ wish list. I doubt the Blue Jackets will agree to retain salary on Severson for the next seven years.
True that but the goalies you mention will be at a premium to acquire. The market for Elvis will be less but he would be well worth 1/2 his salary.
Johnny Z: Even at half salary retained, Merzlikins’ inconsistent performance makes him a difficult sell.
Observe fellow readers on how not to allocate cap to players. CBJ are showing a masterclass of poor cap management by handing out some big cap hits for a lot of no show players.
Each big contract players all came with an asterisk when they signed, ie beware of UFAs coming off career years.
If pens sign Ned then Jarry could be another candidate too.
Very true. There are teams like Columbus who have ham-strung themselves by forking over huge chunks of their cap to players who can’t live up to the expectations and are therefore virtually untradeable, essentially keeping them in the nether regions of the league (Ottawa is fast headed in that direction).
Then there are teams which fork such huge chunks of THEIR cap to 5 or 6 players that they simply can’t retain – for very long – the better of the bottom half of their rosters. and so remain as annual pretenders when it comes to playoff success.
The question is, with the reality that is a hard cap, how do the consistent (at least for a few seasons in succession) teams manage to do it?
The only way that the Jackets are going to get rid of Merzlikins is to buy him out. Laine could be trade bait around next season’s TDL if he can avoid injury. Gaudreau may need nothing more than linemates who compliment his playing style. I still can’t figure out why Jarmo traded for Severson with the plethora of defenseman prospects in the system, much less handing him that ridiculous contract.
Unfortunately, about the only real change coming to the Jackets this summer is the turnover of bottom six players and Bean not being offered a contract.
I can not see any team giving up a 1st round pick and a good NHL player for Severson who, at this stage of his career, is a #5 defenseman on a good team.
That’s easy George. Live in a tax free state so you can sign players like Kucherov, stamkos, valslevski, point ext… for millions less then they would sign in a heavily taxed state. That way you can keep your superstars and still have space left to continually reshape your dime a dozen and very expendable bottom six.
No doubt that is a major factor what the heck … which raises the question – what the heck is the point of Canadian teams hanging around?
Here we are with the playoffs at hand with 4 of the 7 Canada-based teams still in the mix for the cup – Winnipeg, Toronto, Edmonton and Vancouver – and the guessing games have already begun in all regions of Canada as to which of the 4 stands the best chance of ending a three-decade Cup drought.
Along the way there might have been one or two instances where some claim “luck” was a prime factor in not winning, but when the drought is likely soon to head into its fourth decade it’s time to look elsewhere.
As you say, many will point to things like Canadian cities taking a back seat to U.S. locations due to climate/tax reasons which either puts them out of the picture when it comes to the better annual UFAs, or acquiring players who have most – if not all – Canadian franchises on a “no go” list for the same reasons, or simply to avoid the “intense” media/fan obsession with the game. If those are indeed the primary reasons for not being able to go the distance, then the 7 franchises may as well fold because none of those factors are going to change any time soon.
But we also have to consider the possibility that those teams that have kept Lord Stanley south of the border for so long have also had, for the most part, consistently better management, including ultimately better beneficial trades, coaching, and – not least – scouting and drafting. Not that there haven’t been opportunities over the 3 decades. Following is a list of total playoff series played in that span by each team, also showing Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals appearances
Montreal – 27 series – won 13 lost 14 – 3 Conference Finals – 1 Cup final
Ottawa – 27 series – won 11 lost 16 – 3 Conference Finals – 1 Cup final
Vancouver – 20 series – won 8 lost 12 – 1 Conference Final – 1 Cup final
Toronto – 19 series – won 8 lost 11 – 2 Conference Finals
Edmonton – 18 series – won 9 lost 9 – 2 Conference Finals – 1 Cup final
Calgary – 13 series – won 3 lost 10 – 1 Conference Final – 1 Cup final
Winnipeg – 8 series – won 3 lost 5 – 1 Conference Final
As for the draft, here – in order – are the number of Top 5 picks each has had in the drought span, including # 1 Picks where applicable:
Ottawa – 8 incl. 3 # 1 picks; Edmonton – 6 incl. 4 # 1 picks; Montreal – 5 incl. 1 # 1 pick; Vancouver – 5 – NO # 1 pick; Toronto – 4 incl. 1 # 1 pick; Winnipeg – 1 – NO # 1 pick; Calgary – 1 – NO # 1 pick
When the Habs won in 1993 there were 24 teams in the league, 8 of which were Canada-based (the Nordiques hadn’t left town yet).
In the ensuing 3 decades (there was no cup winner in 2005) Lord Stanley has been dispersed as follows:
Detroit – 4
Pittsburgh – 3
N.J. – 3
Colorado – 3
Tampa Bay – 3
Chicago – 3
L.A. – 2
NYR – 1
Dallas – 1
Carolina – 1
Anaheim – 1
Boston – 1
Washington – 1
St. Louis – 1
Vegas – 1
U.S. based “original 6” have won 9 in total.
That’s a pretty darn good response, George.
One factor you did not mention is the # of payers who have Canadian teams on their no move, or no trade lists.
I just counted the # of players in the NHL who have NT/NM clauses; my concentration started to fade but I counted over 200 players.
https://www.thefourthperiod.com/no-trade-clauses
There are a few that shouldn’t be counted (Price was listed, for example). But this means that more than 25% of players have a restriction on where they can be sent to play.
Of this, it’s almost certain that at least some Canadian teams are on every list. Given that only impact players would get NT/NM clauses, this is a significant impediment for Canadian teams drive for competitiveness.
Lyle, or anyone, is there public information to check this speculation?
George some of those Canadian teams are why hockey doesn’t just fold. You want to set a record viewing audience put the leafs in the finals. The cap was created to make teams that wouldn’t be able to survive on there own merrits. Maybe the reason why no Canadian team has won the cup in forever is that 75% of the league is U.S. based. People keep saying that there is now parady in the league but I say bull. What we have is a watered down product. There are at least 10 teams that shouldn’t exist. Imagine watching a game where the teams would be built of almost all stars and those bottom 6 barely NHL players would be playing in a lower leagues where they belong. The games would be amazing and the true talent would be on display.
I’d argue the reason why no Canadian team has won the Cup since 1993 is because most have not been well-managed over the past 31 years. There is a real pressure on these teams to win now, especially in Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton and Vancouver. Mind you, the 2011 Vancouver Canucks had the best chance in 2011. They were the best team in the league that year but they blew a 3-2 series lead to Boston in the Final. I look at that roster today and shake my head over how deep they were and yet they still came up short to the Bruins.
Pressure to win now in Montreal, Lyle? That may be a kiss to build a dream on, but surely even the most rabid of Habs fans don’t expect a “win now”, as defined as any time in the next several years. The Habs are headed for their second straight 28th place finish.
I could go for that Lyle if some of those Canadians teams weren’t managed by the same gm’s that won the cup with American teams. See Brain Burke and Lou Lameralio just off the top of my head. It’s 24 America teams to 8 Canadian teams. Which Country do you think is most likely to win. Literally about 80% odds it goes to U.S. I fold that hand every time. It might actually be that simple just saying.
It might be that simple WTH. But the sample size is getting pretty big IMO.
So DAL, VEG, TB, FLA , NSH and SEA. Take SEA out as they haven’t been around long enough to win one. So of the 5, they have 5 cups. And when you consider Vegas hasn’t been around much, it is a bit better than the places with state or provincial taxes. But places like LA and NJ who are on the high end have 5 between them.
So is it just the taxes? Not so sure it is.
It is an advantage, how can it not be, but doesn’t seem like it can’t be overcome.
I think the pressure to win now is just as big a factor in Canada, if not bigger. Likely a combo, with a side of some players not wanting the fishbowl so struggle when here, or decide they don’t want to even find out.
How to do it George? I dunno, but Carolina might have been onto something by not chasing pending UFA’s at the TDL until this year and keeping their young assets and picks. Also haven’t won. Yet. But have stayed a real contender for a while.
How do you think that would have gone over with the fan base in EDM or VCR this season?
I dunno, if you go back to original question in your post George how do you do it? Guess right on your best guys when young so the contracts age well when the cap rises, walk from the others, keep your picks and prospects so you have less expensive young guys filling the roster.
But until a very good team stands pat at the TDL, for multiple seasons, and wins it all, we won’t know.
LJ, the average rebuild takes 7 years. Meaning start trading vets for young guys etc, to making the playoffs. Will MTL do it for that long? Leafs couldn’t help themselves and signed Tavares to speed it up.
LJ, just for the record, I did mention “or acquiring players who have most – if not all – Canadian franchises on a “no go” list for the same reasons”
Noted now, George. I start reading over my morning coffee. Sometimes the caffeine gets to HQ slowly.
Ray that’s not why the Leafs signed Tavares. He was a legit #1 center that had everything any team would want and having just drafted a young Matthews there was no way they were going to have him and Marner carry the load. This is also good asset management. Watching Dubas from afar, you can see he likes to make a big splash and flash the bucks when he does it. So his player friendly contracts, whether it was him or Shanahan, they either overpaid or had to over pay.
This low tax state discussion is valid but also look at taxes plus cost of living. Toronto is one of the top 2,3 or 4 most expensive cities to live in so it makes sense to want to get paid more. In Toronto and I’d guess in Montreal there’s the added fun of always being discussed throughout the media which your family will have to endure. Like all difficult problems, there aren’t easy on-size fits all solutions so a free state tax state is more a plus like in the same manner lower housing costs would be.
If I’m Sid, I don’t re-up with Penguins unless
1) Pens get in playoffs and get to at least game 6; (note, unlikely scenario) OR
2) Miss playoffs; then Crosby shouldn’t even consider re-upping until Dubas has not only fired Rierdon; but has moved out at least Karllsson and Accairi and brought in younger, but gger, stronger , grittier players
No improvement to club…. He’d be much better off ending his career in Colorado with a couple more Cups.
MacKinnon, Crosby, down the Center with PP1 : MacKinnon, Crosby, Makar, Rantennen….. WOW
Not looking forward to moving the fam to Denver though
8787 Black N Gold here Sid isn’t going anywhere period.
The Penguins have proved with this playoff push (tied for a wild card 2 points out of Metro 3rd) they are capable and with a good off season they can be contenders next year and its doable.
Gone will be
Jeff Carter / Tristan Jarry / Jeff Carter/ Mat Nieto/ Pierre OLiver Joseph / Riley Smith/Jake Guentzel (already gone) Erik Karlsson Ryan Graves plus the cap goes up $ 4 million.
Karlsson loves Ottawa, still has a house there, his best friend is the assistant coach and maybe head coach, the fans love him, and he would waive his NMC.
Karlsson to Ottawa
– San Jose is retaining $ 1.5 million if the Penguins retain $ 1million that bring him to $ 9 million.
Ottawa wants to move a lefthanded defenseman most likely Thomas Chabot $ 8 million.
we swap defenseman
let P.O Joseph walk
Trade Ryan Graves to Arizona (once the season ends Arizona will have no defensemen under contract…they will have to get to the cap floor Graves is younger, fits that team and is only at $ 4.5 million
Sign Matt Dumba (between 3 and $ 4million) and sign Ilyia Lubshkin ($3.0 to $ 3.5 million) both very affordable and physical defenders,
now look
Letang Chabot
Dumba UFA Petersson
Lubshkin ufa Nicolas Hague (trade Vegas)
Anthony Duclair and Jake DeBrusk two good free agent forwards to sign
could use Riley Smith @ 50% to Vegas plus a 3rd round pick for lhd Nicolas Hague 6ft 5 25 years old
Move Tristan Jarry for a 3rd /4th
don’t think Edmonton Colorado LA Kings Ottawa among a few could use him? yes some injury history, but a 2 time all star, and had 7 shutouts this year but watching Skinner Georgiev, Talbot play he is an improvement
Penguins are still a + 4 goal differential this year
Penguins + 4
Red Wings + 3
Islanders – 23
Capitals – 41
Flyers – 23
Devils -13
So they aren’t far off for next year…need some good off season moves.. look Hextall/Burke killed this team for two years..
I would love Crosby to end his career in montreal and show the young kids what it takes to win. However, it will not happen. One can only dream.
Crosby should only go to Montreal to win a cup with them. To go to only wear the sweater isn’t like Crosby to do.
There are no broad sweeping advantages for US teams.
NJ, NY, California have high taxes like Canada and that accounts for 6 franchises, Illinois is right up there too.
Taxes take into account, residence and where the money is actually earned so the Florida advantage isn’t as big as it appears first blush.
Canadian teams pay in US$, and Canadian living expenses, health and education benefits.
Hockey players in winter climate is more “natural” than being on the beach.
All this to say that there is no clear cut advantage for any particular city but a STAR in Montreal or Toronto is a God compared to Florida and some thrive on that and some choke.
Too many people are concerned about this Canada thing, there are 32 teams and the league is set up for parity and spreading the wealth
Factually incorrect and particularly surprising from someone of your acumen, HF30.
Demonstrably so, in fact.
There is easily obtainable information on the web about the tax advantages that certain states have over others (and of course over Canada).
Here is one small quote, albeit about NFLer Tyreek Hill, as reported by Forbes magazine indicating the tax advantages of playing in Florida:
“Playing for Miami will save him an estimated $2.7 million in state and local taxes this season alone,” writes Jared Walczak, vice president of state projects at the Tax Foundation. “Had he played for the Jets this year, he would have owed an estimated $3,191,968, of which $2,984,409 would go to New Jersey and $207,559 would go to other states. Playing for the Dolphins, he will not owe any income taxes to Florida (which doesn’t have an income tax), but his away games will yield an estimated $474,519 in liability elsewhere on the $30 million he’ll make this year.
Tyreek Hill’s sentiments were echoed more recently by the Buffalo Bills’ Jordan Poyer. Poyer, a Pro-Bowl safety who has spent six years with the Bills and is set to become a free agent, says state income tax rates are factoring into his thinking when it comes to his next move.”
True for NFLers, true for NHLers. Hopefully we don’t hear such nonsense again here.
Habsfan I didn’t mean it in terms of attracting players it’s meant you can fill out the bottom 6 better. Expample: tcackuk is a 12 plus million dollar player in let’s say Montreal but can sign in Florida for 9.5 and clear the same money. Reinhart would easily command well over 10 million but can sign for less then 9 in Florida and clear more. Remember it’s not how much you make it’s what you take hime that matters. Another point is let’s take Toronto’s core 4. Mathers can sign for 10, ,Nylander for 9, Marner would be under 9 as well in Floriday. Imagine what could be done with all that extra cap space.
Prior to 1993 there were 7 seasons in a row – 1984-1990 – when Canada–based teams won the cup
Edmonton – 5 times
Montreal – 1
Calgary – 1
Like now, there were 7 such teams, and 21 teams in total, so one-third of the league was in Canada. Which more or less affirms what what the heck is saying.
Incidentally, in 1986, every Canada-based team made the playoffs
Yes, Tavares was a #1 center when Dubas signed him.
The problem was Leafs already had a #1 center in Matthews.
So Tavares by default became a #2 center, a position already being adequately filled by Nazim Kadri.
So Leafs paid an extra $6.5M per year for a upgrade at 2nd line center when that $6.5M far was more urgently needed to upgrade the Leafs defense.
Which would you prefer?
? – Matthews – Marner
? – Kadri – Nylander
Reilly – Pietrangelo…….
Or
? – Matthews – Marner
? – Tavares – Nylander
Reilly – Brodie/Lyubushkin
I see the signing of Tavares as the first in a series of mistakes made by Dubas that caused the Leafs to win one, first round series in 7 years.
1) Trading for Foligno instead of Sam Bennett
2) Protecting Justin Holl instead of Jared McCann
3) Trading Mason Marchment for Denis Malgin
4) Trading for Giordano instead of Jacob Middleton and signing Giordano in the summer.
5) Forgetting to make the 1st round pick sent to Carolina “Lottery Protected.”
6) Drafting a 165lbs Rodion Amirov instead of Dawson Mercer/Kaidan Guhle/Bradon Schnieder
7) Emptying Leafs draft pick/prospect cupboard each year at the trade deadline in search of a savior.
Stable ownership.
Good Management.
Good coaching.
These are standard,
Exceptional scouting, including professional
scouting. If you are to be near the top for any
length of time your draft days will need to be
supplemented by free agents, bargains, and
astute trades.
A core group — the half dozen players you’ll have for a decade, that can keep the turnover of newcomers feeling as much part of the team as the group that originally established excellence.
Patience not to panic during the off year – due to injury or bad luck there might be one missed playoff year in a run of quality; a good management doesn’t listen to the voices that say the run is over.