NHL Rumor Mill – May 16, 2024
What’s the latest on Mitch Marner? Could the Jets trade Nikolaj Ehlers this summer? Find out in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
LATEST MARNER SPECULATION
TORONTO STAR: Kevin McGran suggested four trade scenarios if the Maple Leafs decide to move Mitch Marner, provided he agrees to waive his no-movement clause.
One option is offering Marner to the Nashville Predators with goaltender Juuse Saros as the centerpiece of a package return to the Leafs.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Saros could be available this summer. He’s a year away from unrestricted free-agent eligibility and the Preds could move him to make room for promising Yaroslav Askarov. McGran speculated the Leafs would want Saros to sign a contract extension. He also indicated that Saros’ numbers weren’t that good this season.
Another could be sending Marner to the Seattle Kraken for defenseman Adam Larsson and promising center Shane Wright. Marner would boost the Kraken’s top-six scorers. Larsson is a right-shot defenseman who could help the Leafs but they’d have to sign him to a contract extension. Wright has struggled so far at the NHL level but the Leafs could be more patient with him.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Kraken general manager Ron Francis is expected to shop for offensive depth this summer. He could part with Larsson for an established scorer. Wright showed signs of improvement with five points in eight games during his late-season call-up. Francis could be reluctant to part with him but maybe he’d consider it for someone like Marner.
McGran also suggested shipping Marner to Utah for Clayton Keller or to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Mikhail Sergachev.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Acquiring Marner would make a big splash for the former Coyotes in their new market. However, I don’t see them parting with Keller, who’s been an important part of their roster rebuild.
The Bolts won’t trade Sergachev because it would further deplete their defense corps. He’s also a left-shot defenseman, which doesn’t address the Leafs’ requirement for a right-shot rearguard.
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner (NHL Images).
Having looked at possible trade scenarios, McGran believes trading Marner will accomplish very little for the Leafs. He thinks they should keep the core five intact and see if they improve under a new head coach.
McGran doesn’t see the sense in moving out Marner for lesser players in return. He also doesn’t believe the 27-year-old winger wants out of Toronto.
TORONTO SUN: Terry Koshan pointed to the big hole Marner’s potential departure would leave in their lineup. The winger was on pace for a 101-point performance this season with 85 in 69 games. He had 99 points in 2022-23, 97 the previous season and 94 in 2018-19. It won’t be easy to replace his production.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The emotion of another early Leafs playoff departure is giving way to sober second thoughts among some Toronto pundits. McGran’s colleague Damien Cox suggests the Leafs should instead focus on stabilizing their supporting cast rather than breaking up their Core Four forwards.
For all the talk of trading Marner or asking John Tavares to waive his NMC, there’s a good chance both players will return with the Leafs next season. Marner and Tavares hold all the cards and if they don’t want to be traded there’s nothing the Leafs can do about it. Sure, they could buy out the final years of their contracts but that won’t happen.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Leafs opt to keep their core four intact. They won’t get equal value in any return for Marner or Tavares which could provide justification to retain them, even at the risk of losing them for nothing to free agency next summer. Whoever they hire as head coach could also prefer having Marner and Tavares in the lineup.
JETS COULD TRADE NIKOLAJ EHLERS THIS SUMMER
THE ATHLETIC: Murat Ates believes Nikolaj Ehlers might not be with the Winnipeg Jets after this summer. The 28-year-old winger has a year left on his contract with a $6 million cap hit and a 10-team no-trade clause. He’s eligible for UFA status next July.
Ehlers has put up first-line numbers playing second-line minutes. If the Jets cannot extend him they must find a way to move him for assets. He’s been shopping before but Ates indicates things could be different this summer.
Ates suggested offering up Ehlers to the Ottawa Senators for defenseman Jakob Chychrun. Ehlers might also fetch a power forward like Lawson Crouse from “Utah HC.” The Carolina Hurricanes might be a fit if he brought back one of their high-priced defensemen like Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov or Jaccob Slavin.
Other proposed destinations include the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I like that swap of Ehlers for Chychrun but the latter could have the Jets on his no-trade list. Utah could be interested but might not want to part with Crouse. I don’t see the Hurricanes parting with Slavin. Burns could have the Jets on his no-trade list. Orlov lacks no-trade protection but the Canes would have to retain part of his $7.75 million cap hit to facilitate that trade.
WINNIPEG SUN: Scott Billeck was asked what type of return Ehlers might fetch for the Jets. He suggested a top-four defenseman who (like Ehlers) is a year away from UFA eligibility like Chychrun or Slavvin (who Billeck admits is likely untradeable), along with Vegas’ Shea Theodore or the LA Kings’ Vladislav Gavrikov. Billeck doubts those two will be traded.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I’ve heard speculation suggesting the Golden Knights could move Theodore to free up cap room to re-sign Jonathan Marchessault. If so, they won’t want a player in return. As for Gavrikov, he’s got a full NMC.
Another option could be using Ehlers to acquire draft picks and use the $6 million savings in this summer’s free-agent market. Potential defense UFAs include Florida’s Brandon Montour, Carolina’s Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei and Vancouver’s Nikita Zadorov.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: That could be the best option for the Jets but it does come with some risk. Those blueliners mentioned by Billeck could be unwilling to come to Winnipeg as free agents.
THE HOCKEY NEWS: Sammi Silber looked at whether Ehlers would be a good fit with the Washington Capitals. His offensive consistency could be what the Capitals need to bolster their production.
Speculation is fun but ultimately Marner holds all the cards an wont be going anywhere if he doesnt want too.
If you assume Marner wants to win a Cup and maximize his earnings that narrows the options for any movement.
How many teams in a strong position to win the Cup have the cap room to resign him and the assets required to obtain him?
My personal guess is a highly motivated Marner plays the season in Toronto, racks up 110-120 points and walks as a free agent.
And a 2 or 3 assist effort in another 1st round loss?
I know he’s a reliable 82 game star, but I wonder what the pressure of a contract year looks like on him. Curious if it motivates him or stifles him.
Ron- I dont think any contending team wants him to be honest. I think a team that needs to get to the playoffs would be interested. If you are paying marner 12 million for 8 years.. you aren’t contending. He just isn’t that guy in the playoffs…at least not the guy worth paying 12 mill too. My guess is he goes to a west coast team or Utah…outside shot of Nashville – does very much he stays in the east – will see. To be clear he isnt the only reason they havent succeeded but if you watch the games – he appears to the only one who isn’t able/doesnt want too, adjust his play to the style required in playoffs.
The thing that is really fascinating about Marner not being a Playoff Performer.
All Time Playoff Points
Marner .88, +10, GWG 3, EVP 31
Matthews .87, +2 GWG 6, EVP 34
Nylander .80, +1 GWG 3, EVP 34
On the offense side, its pretty interesting that Marner is the one getting called out. On the defensive side, Mtthews hits more, blocks more shots, etc. However Marner blows Nylander out of the water in those metrics.
Brian, good points and nice stats usage to back up what you’re saying. If you do the same thing with other top players, those point totals are lower than they should be for an elite player in comparison. Not a lot different but maybe just enough to avoid the fate this Leafs team suffers from.
Detroit, Nashville, Colorado, Vancouver, LA, Minnesota, all are on the cusp of being pretty competitive and or making a deep run.
If Minnesota is not interested trading for him now, then they will certainly be in the market when he becomes a UFA next summer. They have nearly 15 million in Dead Cap coming off the books next summer.
Kaprizov/Boldy/Marner, sounds like a pretty freaking good line.
Brian,
Marner blows Nylander out of the water? i would hope so – he has been tied to Matthews hip forever while Nylander gets floated around from line to line to fill voids. He was asked to centre the 3rd line in consective years when Kadri was suspended, he was even on the 1st powerplay til a couple years ago BUT…Even I give you that …shouldn’t Marner have better numbers than Nylander? I mean Marner made 4 million more a season for past 5 years! I mean Nylander makes 63% of what Marner does lol….Marner’s numbers don’t look 37% better than Nylander’s do they?
When Mitch is playing well during the season, he is trumpeted like the greatest passer since Gretzky and when he turtles in the playoffs , its alot of what aboutism…!
You should go one step further with your stats and show the numbers based solely on elimination games.
Thats where the truth of Marner et all value lies.
Ron
if Muskoka Mitch did that he would become public enemy #1 with leafs fan in Ontario,
Im sure thay try to trade him at or before the June 28th draft
Coming Back a Goaltender or a top 4 RD/man and a player or a good pick,..?
Thats unless its a much bigger deal between 2 teams or a 3 way trade with multiple Players
Sens would rather have Demelo back. They should have kept him and Eugene was too cheap.
3x5m should get it done.
Ehlers is a 60 point guy who disappears in the playoffs. Jets can keep him.
Have to agree there Dark G. Besides, you can probably bet his 10-team no trade clause includes the Senators.
Having said that, the thing with Chychrun is – will the real one please stand up.
For the first time in his career he played a full 82 game schedule, and in the early going was jumping into the play in the offensive zone and putting up points, including some key goals, and by the end of December he had 7g 18a 25 pts and was a decent -1.
Then, along with the rest of the team, the wheels fell off and the rest of the way – Jan to April – he had 7g 9a 16 pts and a whopping -29.
Even though he’s on a cap-friendly $4.6 mil per cap hit through next season, and although I would not be adverse to dealing him before he reaches UFA status, right now might not be the time to do it.
Currently, they have Chabot at $8 mil per for 4 more years, and Sanderson’s new deal of $8,050,000 kicks in next season and runs to 2031-32. Then they have their best deal on D in Artyem Zub and his $4.6 mil hit with 3 seasons to run.
After that it drops off the Bernard-Docker’s $805,000 cap hit which runs through next season when he becomes an RFA. I liked his progress this past season and believe he’ll eventually be a solid 3rd pairing type. And while hopes are currently high on prospect Kleven and Guenette, I don’t see both making the roster next season, which means Staios has to find another solid D either through trade or off the UFA heap. Demelo would be a perfect acquisition from that source (82gp 3g 28a 31 pts and a solid +46.
Pair him with Chabot in the 3/4 pairing, with Sanderson-Zub the first pairing, and Bernard-Docker-Kleven in the 5/6 slot, and Guenette the first call-up. Finding a solid 7th D shouldn’t be difficult.
If they can pull that off, then make the best deal possible for Chychrun.
I could see Demilo not initially wanted a return to Ottawa, but perhaps with new ownership and management and coaching, he would feel differently?
Who’s to know for now.
Exactly.
All of this.
I’m also not completely against keeping Chychrun.
I still think a lot of this team’s misfortunes are tied to coaching and playing the right way. Even the goaltending.
I would love to see Marner in Buffalo. The Sabres have the assets to pull it off.
I’m not a fan of Power, I wouldn’t mind seeing a trade with Marner and Power as the center pieces.
Really? I mean, that has the makings of a decent trade, but I think Power is going to develop into a #1 defenseman. His breakouts are both outstanding and plentiful.
I wouldn’t move him unless I was getting a center in return. Or that Cowan kid thrown in with Krebs going back to TO as well.
The phone went click as soon as you mentioned Cowan`s name
He’s been very exciting to watch. I hope it translates to the pros for him.
He sure looks good so far, averaging 4 points a game in the OHL finals against Oshawa. Not a prospect that a GM wants to throw in to complete a trade that`s for sure. Whether he can play like that in the NHL is yet to be determined, but I still wouldn`t include him in this trade
If the Leafs could get Owen Power for Marner that deal would be done already.
Buffalo will not do that.
Cowan isn’t going to change that either. Looks like a good prospect, but jeez.
Power – 21 yrs old, 6’6″ – 218 and can skate. 33 pts plus 8 on a non playoff team playing almost 23 minutes a night. AT 21! The guy is still 2 seasons away from from having the reps he needs in the NHL to hit his potential. Locked up for 7 years starting next season.
The guy is a beast who has minute munching, #1 D written all over him.
I don’t care what winger it is, that ain’t happening.
There really isn’t a scenario where Marner is part of the leafs in 2025. In order for that to happen he would have to take less or worst case the same as what he is making . That won’t happen- ego is too large. That’s the only reason you move him, that being said, this is the reason you do all you can to move him now. He will waive, no one wants to stay where they aren’t wanted and honestly, will be in a spot where they don’t put him in a spot to exceed point totals. So he would be hurting his bargaining power.
I think was very telling that his high ankle sprain wasn’t brought up by Treliving – it was a sign that its no excuse…and I believe they are done with him..
Sam, I have no idea how this Marner saga ends.
But if I had to bet $20 right now, I go with he stays in Toronto and signs an extension similar to Pasta’s in BOS.
Once all the emotion goes out of this loss, the whiners stop whining, and the pragmatic work of asset management and roster construction starts, combined with what the market suggests a return is for him (Guessing it won’t be Sergachev or Keller, but quite a bit less), they will make the decisions on what gives them the best chance to win now and the next 5 years.
I think Marner would waive if pressed, as who wants to play in an environment where you are not wanted by the team MGT and vilified by a large section of the fan base. I don’t even think it gets to the ask stage as they won’t like what they hear from opposing GM’s.
The sharks smell blood in the water and see an opportunity to get Marner on the cheap.
Tough spot for Treliving, can’t let him walk for nothing, the return won’t be par and may make your team worse. Which is why they will never give specifics to the press. They have to keep extending him an option.
Group hug, he resigns. Tre takes the heat like a man and tries to improve the team for this season, and survive, go hard next off season. I assume his new boss isn’t an idiot and won’t force his new GM to make a bad deal.
Also don’t underestimate what Matthew etc think. I don’t know, but if they don’t like the idea, it matters.
If Tavares and Marner are gone after next season, that forward group looks way flippn’ different.
All good points Ray- and any other year I agree, but this one just feels different. Depends how they see him, and based on that press conference I don’t think they see him as part of their team. They would have mentioned a lingering high ankle sprain to justify his play, they actually said everything but say his name when the talked about the failures.
So if they decide they don’t want him in the mix – even at Nylander money (and trust me marner wont take same money as Nylander) then move him now and take whatever you can, the cap space alone helps you change your team…
I think Shanahan’s job rides in the balance too and I don’t think he can risk running back the same 4. Tavares isn’t going anywhere, and truthfully he shouldn’t, he is what he is- and he does in fact show up in the playoffs .
I will say as a guy who has watched every leaf playoff game the last few years, I’m not sure you miss him at all. Again, I said playoff game, not regular season….I just don’t feel he is capable of playing playoff hockey effective, he can’t cycle, and just doenst have the same time/space as regular season to create . If he were making Sebastian Aho money or Jack Hughes money – no one would bat an eye, but for what he brings in the post season…he is blatantly overpaid.
Sign Marner, let Tavares walk in 2025.
Ray, remeber Torey Krug refused a trade to Philly. I remember a TV talking head vilifying Krug for not going to Philly. “you’re not wanted, leave”
The players may feel very different. The fans Marner first 4pt game, the same folks; best decision not to trade him, sign him now for $14m x 8yrs! get it done.
Fans are like the wind, depends on the direction and day, it’s always changing.
Toronto going into the 9th season with Matthews, Marner and Nylander. 7th season with Tavares and Rielly been there the whole time.
As the team is constructed today, can Toronto compete with Florida, NY Rangers and Carolina?
How far is teams like NJ, Det, Buff, Ott behind Tor?
I didn’t list Boston or Tampa they’re on the decline.
The best move of trading Marner would be a sign and trade to maximize the return.
Coming back next season with the same 5 and hoping for different results. Dangerous.
Boston on the decline? They still have enough to beat you!
Caper – “Coming back next season with the same 5 and hoping for different results. Dangerous.”
Absolutely agree, and the results will likely be very similar to this year, depending who they fill out the roster with. Why would anyone expect differently? Although sometimes teams get it going after years of early playoff disappointment. Caps and Sharks come to mind.
They could also be worse if they trade him. Not sure how losing a trade makes you better. Cap space is simply money, not players who produce. What UFA’s make you better? How much you gonna overpay?
When Tavares leaves after next season plus no Marner?? Another big hole.
Keep Marner and another $11M in space next off season? Looks different doesn’t it.
If Tavares was 30 and had 4 years left, go for it.
Hey I don’t pretend to know what they get for Marner, just making assumptions like everyone else. But if he makes it difficult – AKA does what’s best for him and his family – and won’t sign an extension elsewhere until he hits UFA, or picks the one team he will go to, then the return has to be less doesn’t it?
Now you’ve asked him to waive, he’s leaving, and return is minimal; you have just put yourself in a box.
Just saying this isn’t going to be easy and if they are not flexible, things could easily get worse.
Re-signing him has to be an option or IMO you do put yourself in a box.
Sr lol, Do you see Boston on the climb?
Last playoff was the best Roster they had and no blame on Sweeney he pushed his chips all in and unfortunately the team came up short.
I’ll wait until the beginning of next season and see who they add.
? Coyle Pastrnak
Marchand Poitras Frederick
Lauko Zacha Brazeau
Boquist Beecher Brown
not much scoring there. Is Lysell and Merkulov ready for the jump.
Defense
Lindholm McAvoy
Lohrei Carlo
Wotherspoon Peeke
defense is solid, need a physical player ie Dillon
Goaltending as it stands today
Ullmark, Swayman
excellent, but one will likely be moved to add
Unless scoring is added they will fight for a playoff spot, likely wildcard.
Caper,I Don t see them declining all that much because I Don t see many other teams making a big jump! Buffalo,Detroit,Ottawa,Montreal,Pitt., N j.Philly,to include most because they Don t have a goalie like Swayman at this point!
Marner and Liligren for Cerelli and Chernak
Was Marner the Problem this Playoff?
Jarnkrok 7 GP 0 Points
Gregor 2 GP 0 Points
Holmberg 7 GP – 0 Points
Robertson 6 GP – 0 Points
Dewar 6 GP – 0 Points
Reaves 5 GP – 1 Point
Kampf 7 GP – 1 Point.
Essentially the Leaf’s Bottom 6 Forwards has 2 points in 40 man games.
How is it the rest of the League can point to the issue? Its not your top players, its the idiotic plan that the front office has.
Getting rid of Shanny, should have already happened.
Brian, was Marner “The” problem no?- he was definitely one of them. You have hard time paying bottom six players when stars eat up so much salary. If Leafs win a series or two no one cares if the bottom six performs. So you get to the point where you have to allocate money differently bc it hasn’t worked. if you are being honest. If Marner was locked in for next 6 years at 10.9 maybe not even having this discussion- but how on earth could you justify giving him a raise?
I would be curious to watch Mitch Marner play a season without Matthews or tavares as his centre and see exactly how much of a line driver he is. Say what you will but Nylander has outperformed his contract – he has made 4 million less than Marner the last 5 years…!!!
Sam if you want to put it in a real scenario. Marner gets hurt, Domi steps in, Matthews doesn`t miss a beat. Marner 10.9 million and wants a raise, Domi 3 million and just wants to stay. I`m not a big fan of either player, but I like what Domi brings at around 3 million than what Marner brings at 11+ million
Where was the talk of Marner being the problem the last 2 years in the playoffs when he had 22 points in 18 games?
Leaf fans are funny.
No problem, would love for the Blues to take him. Take Kyrou, that way you can free up more cap space to build out the bottom 6.
All those guys you listed combined make less than Marner and surely dont get either the ice tome or pp time Marner does.
Yogi- exactly! I am just of the opinion that he is a luxury complimentary player while his camp will tell you he is the reason Matthews is who he is. The JT signing wasn’t a bad signing and every leaf fan loved it- they are lying if they tell you otherwise lol. It was Marner’s deal that killed us..and now him…
If he had just taken 7.5- even 8 he would beloved and would be exceeding expectations for his salary- but his ego got in the way..
I always laugh at the Nylander comparisons, 88 is a better player, can’t even use the “he floats” crap after watching Marner this playoff. Nylander just plays no matter with who.. but can’t use Nylander comps when he makes so much less…Marner told us he was 4 million better than Nylander- show it!!
I listened to Marchand today and he said “part of the playoffs is trying to hurt other people”…do you see enough dog in Marner to rise above that mentality and endure a long playoff run….come on….
I`d trade Marner for Crouse and picks in a heartbeat and Toronto would win the trade. Regular season you tell players shoot from anywhere, goals are scored from all over. That doesn`t happen much in the playoffs, most goals are scored from less than 20 ft. A dirty area that that Nylander and Tavares will go into to score. Matthews and especially Marner won`t. Not every player gets a point when a goal is scored, but a guy battling in front of the net may not get a point, but may be the biggest reason that a goal is scored
Marner to LA for Pierre Luc Dubois. PLD showed the Leafs what he could do in the playoffs when he was with Columbus. Come on Leafs do it!
New coach, what does he think?
Auston Matthews, what does he think?
Tavares has one more year, then what? That’s a big chunk of change coming off the books after next year.
I believe Marner wants to stay but, if he doesn’t, he’s a trade deadline move for Treliving.
If he does, the new contract needs to be in place before the trade deadline.
Odds are Marner stays and is signed to a new contract but a trade this summer would sure be newsworthy. If it happens, a goalie like Saros would be nice.
Marner to Buffalo would really light up the GTA.
Another frustrating season followed by a summer of intrigue. Nothing new here….
I see a lot of love on here for Demelo, i’m not one of them. If someone is offering DeMelo $5m per, he should definitely jump on it and say thanks.
Demelo benefit from a strong goaltender and a good defensive system. He was a disappointment in the playoffs.
Ehlers, keeps me wanting more. He didn’t like how Wheeler handle the room, which would also mean he didn’t like how Maurice handle the bench.
His playoff performance was bad. The one play where he just laid on the ice after losing the puck, and Colorado went down the ice and scored. Still stick in my mind.
He going to score around 25g and 60pts his regular season average is .75 per game, playoffs .37
Ehlers is now 28yrs old i think what you see is what you get, no reason to thinks there is more.
Any of the above trade suggestions would be a good deal for Winnipeg.
caper, if you look at the stats for the Jets D, Demelo wasn’t the only one in which to be disappointed
Morrissey – 5gp 3g 1a 4pts -3
Schmidt – 3gp 1g 01 1 pt -5
Pionk – 5gp 0g 1a 1pt -2
Dilon – 3gp 0g 3a 3 pts +1
DeMelo – 5gp 0g 1a 1 pt -1
Miller – 1gp -g 1a 1 pt +1
Samberg – 5gp 0g 0a 0 pts -7
Stanley – 3gp 0g 1a 1 pt -1
Depending or not if he is on their no trade list, I would not mind seeing Ehlers come to the Islanders. They have been interested in him before. If they want a top four Defenseman I would suggest Adam Pelech even though he had a Down year or Ryan Bullock. Your has been some talk here on The islander websites that they may be able to do it by trading their first round draft pick. What do you guys think?
Marner was dealing with a high ankle sprain. Takes on average 12 weeks. Even though playing not 100%.
Wait it out. Tavares should be half of his current rate. If not let him walk or trade him March 2025.
Elite goal scores and point producers do not grow on trees
Leafs need a Bennett Montour and get lucky with landing a Forsling type . They also need a Bob
Hate to tell you this, Toronto didn`t lose the series because of the goaltending. Toronto lost because of a lack of goals and having the worst PP and PK didn`t help. If Marner`s ankle was still bothering him, why did he play the last few regular season games and risk reinjuring the ankle. That doesn`t wash, they needed a lot more net presence. It`s bad when you only have 4 players that will spend time in front of the net and 2 of them are your goalies. Even funnier people wanted the other 2 players to be traded, Tavares and Nylander. Matthews is still undecided whether he`ll take some punishment to score more and Marner has no balls for that type of game at all. Toronto had the players needed to win, Kadri, Verhaeghe, Marchment, Moore, Hyman, Durzi, bur unfortunately we had a GM that saw outside the box and Dubas slogan was ” We play the game with pucks, not balls ” Figure skaters wanted
Jets should target a young defenceman like Braden Schneider from the Rangers. Ehlers would provide fair value.