NHL Rumor Mill – July 23, 2024

by | Jul 23, 2024 | Rumors | 41 comments

In today’s NHL Rumor Mill: burning questions about Mitch Marner’s future in Toronto, Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko’s futures with the Rangers, and Sidney Crosby’s contract extension with the Penguins.

NHL NETWORK: Mitch Marner’s future with the Toronto Maple Leafs was among the five burning offseason questions recently discussed by Jamison Coyle and Mike Rupp.

Rupp doesn’t see the Maple Leafs moving away from Marner this summer. He cited the 27-year-old winger’s play as well as the final year of his contract containing a full no-movement clause. Marner could play out that year and depart next summer as an unrestricted free agent.

Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner (NHL Images).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: We’ve gone from the expectation that Marner could be traded this summer to the reality that he holds all the cards and won’t accept a trade. The narrative has shifted to whether he and the Leafs will agree to a contract extension. However, recent reports suggest the Marner camp intends to let this season unfold and see where they are once it’s over.

A team could emerge this summer that makes a lucrative trade offer that Marner would accept but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it. Expect him to be in their opening-night lineup in October.

Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko have featured regularly in this summer’s rumor mill. However, Rupp expects they’ll still be with the New York Rangers when this season begins in October.

Rupp acknowledged the recent trade speculation regarding management’s attempt to move Trouba and the 30-year-old defenseman using his no-movement clause to block the trade. He knows that Trouba is well-liked by his teammates and doesn’t anticipate the attempted trade will be an issue for the blueliner this season. Nevertheless, he wonders what the future holds for Trouba.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Trouba now has a 15-team no-trade list but recent reports claim the Rangers have no plans to move him this summer. This season, however, could be his last with the Blueshirts. They could try to move him next summer to shed his $8 million cap hit for 2025-26.

Regarding Kaako, Rupp believes the 23-year-old winger is worth keeping. He expects Kakko is due for a breakout performance, pointing out Alexis Lafreniere’s emergence last season following a difficult 2022-23 which made him the subject of trade rumors.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Kakko’s one-year, $2.4 million contract makes him an affordable gamble for Rangers management. If he had that breakout performance, they’d have him on a very cheap deal this season. If he struggles again, it’ll be easier to move to another team willing to take the chance.

Rupp doesn’t think Pittsburgh Penguins fans should be concerned that Sidney Crosby hasn’t signed his contract extension yet. He anticipates the long-time Pittsburgh captain will finish his career as a Penguin.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: On July 8, The Athletic’s Rob Rossi cited sources claiming Crosby and the Penguins were closing in on an extension. It could be a three-year deal worth an average annual value of $10 million.

The superstitious Crosby will probably sign on August 7. That’s his birthday and his jersey number (87). I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve already hammered out the details.







41 Comments

  1. The shame of his imminent contract extension in Pittsburgh is that a league that needs to showcase it s stars and personalities is signing with an organization that may not make the playoffs again during his career!

    • Sr… Crosby 3 years $10 million per season…..he stays in Pittsburgh !!

      East Playoff predictions as of July 23 2024.
      Yes there will be movement in August

      1. Boston
      2. Florida
      3. Toronto

      Florida Cup champs did lose some key pieces they slip just a tad.

      Boston who finished 1 point behind Florida last year added Zadorov and Lindholm they leap frog Florida.

      Toronto third in the Atlantic their spot

      1. NY Rangers
      2. New Jersey
      3. Carolina

      Rangers till the best didn’t do much this ummer
      Devils with their adds and with Markstrom in goal and young crew jump up
      Hurricanes did lose a lot still solid finish third

      Tampa Washington favs to win wild card spots

      Islanders/ Penguins/ Sabres/ Red Wings sniffing until the end.

      obviously moves can still happen this summer,, trades also injuries etc.

      Thoughts

  2. The pundits can keep dragging up Marner’s name in trade possibility until the proverbial cows come home, but it doesn’t change two salient facts

    1. there are just a couple of teams with the prerequisite cap space that could take him on – and he would have to agree to go to those sites

    2. every team where he MIGHT waive his full NMC to report to either is already over the cap or so close to the max that they, in turn, would need to move commensurate cap in order to make room … and find locations that could either take that on immediately (again – just a couple), or, in turn, find takers for the cap space THEY’D need to move out.

    This is shaping up to be THE first acid test of how to deal with a situation where a bloated, full NMC contract (the brick) runs up against a fully cap -saturated league-wide situation (the proverbial wall).

    • Not to mention if he waits till ufa and signs with a team that may have traded for him instead… that team still has the assets they woulda given up for him thus making them a deeper organization with a better chance of success

      • George and Chrisms- good points. George, been saying this for a long time- I do not see a contending team acquiring Marner- not for what he will want in salary. if Mitch Marner makes up 13 mill of your cap you are not a contender, sorry. So will be curious to see if there is long line of blank cheques everyone talks about come July 2025.

        Chrisms- the team may sign without giving up assets BUT- they will have a hard time hitting his requested number over 7 years as opposed to 8 years if they trade for him

        I think the Marner camp saying he wont sign is their spin knowing that Leafs wont give him whatever he wants like Dubas did. Saving face. Leafs have yet to publicly say they want to keep him- not once. Interesting and telling. Unlike the Matthews and Nylanders media back and forth.

        Truly tired of hearing of all his regular season success -its hollow for a few reasons. Number 1 – he has been tied to Matthews hip his whole career and when he wasnt he was tied to a top centre in JT (yes JT was a top centre when he arrived).

        I want to see what he does with his own line. Matthews didnt miss a beat playing with Domi and Bertuzzi. Nylander is a nomad plays on all the lines and just excels. I want to see Marner spend some time driving his own line and see what he does. I heard for years how he made Matthews and was responsible for Tavares production- even though he arrived a point a game centre. The over-hype is incredible.

        Point 2- he has never actually hit 100 points(semantics – maybe) but the leagues elite are over that threshold at least a few times. Im just tired of hearing he is in the same category of Mackinnon Matthews Pastrnak Kucherov Draisatl and dare I say McDavid….its ridiculous. He is more in line with the Nylanders, Aho, Rantanens of the world than the former.
        if you watch Leafs playoff games– you know that that when the intensity is turned up and the game is physical- he is nowhere to be found- it is so painfully obvious- but I must be missing something

        all of this to say i do believe he is a talented player just not amongst the leagues elite- where he wants to be paid…

        walk on….

      • Very true chrisms … but he UFA situation does not change the fact that there will likely be just a few teams with the cap space necessary to meet his demands … and some or all of those might be locations where he does not wish to go (e.g. re-building franchises).

        As for those locations where he would be interested in joining, if – as is probable – they’d need to move out cap, the problem starts all over again … where do THEY send that cap?

        As I say, it seems to be building up into a classic “you can’t get there from here” scenario where the biggest cap hits are concerned.

        Hey, I know it’s always possible – at least so far – for some team to come up with a viable plan to accommodate the really big bucks … but if it happens in Marner’s case, it’s going to be fascinating to watch it unfold.

      • Sam, just missed your response above before responding to chrisms. Very good analysis.

        I’m afraid we’re going to be subjected to periodical “Marner solutions” until he actually reaches UFA status after next season – during which he’ll still be a Leaf.

        Depending upon the cap status of a team, he MIGHT be a target at next season’s trade deadline – i.e., a pure rental taking on the balance of his cap where the Leafs might recoup some tangible asset(s).

      • As much as I don’t want to get into this Marner trade/sign stuff, fodder for the dog days of summer, I point out that a team’s cap space doesn’t preclude a trade.

        One example of many that could be cited, Pittsburg’s acquisition of Karlsson, involving three teams and salary retention.

        I’ve said before, the Leafs can’t force a trade, Marner likes being in Toronto, he, Matthews and Nylander have several years in their prime, and after this season Tavares’ 11 million comes off the books making for lots of cap space to fill in other roster spots.

        Why would the Leafs trade Marner?

      • LJ you’re right, why would the Leafs trade away a very good (top 10) player in the league? It’s not like many guys like him come along all the time.

        Cap/cap hit be damned, if you could fit a defensive aware +95pt player (not named Marner, to make things easier) wouldn’t you want someone like that on your team?

        I can’t say for certain what the Leafs ought to do but I’m sure moving away from a gifted player in his prime just doesn’t seem right, you know?

  3. Rangers don’t need to do anything before season starts. Lundgren is last piece. Fitting him this year no problem. Long term could be. Kakko a ? If he does breakout, he’ll be another on a long list of guys needing raises next off season. Definitely last season for Trouba. Right now they’re sitting on a roster that won prez trophy. Improvements will come from Reilly Smith, a healthy Chytil, continued improvement from younger players and deadline acquisitions.

    • Burns and Necas to Leafs. Marner to Canes. 2m retained.

      • Burns and Necas for Marner (2m retained) and Roberson
        Marner is a 1 yr rental

      • Marner’s NMC blocks that.

      • Huh Lyle, I though common sense would also block that trade but NMC definitely will. 🤣

  4. Social media
    Heckling from the fans

    Something Marner has to prepare himself for

    He is known to be a somewhat sensitive person

    Who needs it , just give the Leafs a list of teams , play for a team where U R welcome !!

    He’s a superstar , as Treliving comments , but Leafs need to balance out their lineup

    I am hoping Nick Robertson thrives under Berube

    Specialty teams , PK, PP need huge improvement

    New coaching staff – let’s Hope and See

    • Ken totally agree. If you know they arent going to pay you, you get to start your UFA tour a year early and pick your destination. Playing the year out-you risk injury, having a bad offensive year in a system where the coach wont coddle you and knows you arent part of the long term plans and they may not play you in every situation.

      Additonally you get to sign an 8 year deal- if you want it…makes no sense for him to stay.

      LJ –leafs trade Marner because their is sizzle but no steak – and playoff hockey isnt about the sizzle. Give me a Marchessault and Bennet instead one marner right…

      If they could have dealt Marner – they in theory could have signed Marchessault and Patrick Kane for less than his current salary- doesnt that make them better

    • Ken, re Robertson, yesterday I asked BCLeaf Fan how he sees Treleving resolving his last two RFAs to re-up, but I guess it was posted too late and he missed it.

      The two are Dewar – 11g 8a 19 pts in 74gp with Minn & Tor and coming off an ELC of $800,000 – and Robertson – 14g 13a 27 pts in 56gp and coming off an ELC of $797,000?

      He has $2,455,333 in cap space according to PuckPedia and the combined expiring ELCs total $1,597,000. Robertson alone would be looking at something in the $2.2 mil range.

      The above is based upon PuckPedia’s listing of the Toronto roster which has 20 of the maximum 23 as follows:
      11F: Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Marner, Domi, Kampf, Jarnkrok, Reaves, McMann. Knies, Holmberg

      7D: Rielly, Tanev, Ekman-Larsson, Liljegren, McCabe, Benoit, Timmins

      2G: Stolarz, Woll

      It being very doubtful he can get both re-upped within that cap space, from a Leafs fan standpoint, how do you – or Allen, Daryl, Ron Moore or Yogi see it playing out?

      • George O

        Curious how you arrived at that number for Robertson?

        I would say IF he signs with Toronto, Treliving would try to sign him to
        a contract similar to Bobby McMann…$2 years at $1.35M per

        As somebody alluded to above I would like to see Marner run his own line…how about as the 3C with Robertson and McMann on the wings.

        The Leafs would be a tough team to defend with Matthews, Nylander, and Marner on separate lines.

      • Daryl, I’m looking at it from 82-game averages – and in his case, coming off 56gp and totals of 14g 13a 27 pts, that works out to 21g 20a 41 pts and, on that basis, his agent will argue for something closer to $2 mil.

        It may well be that Treleving has already told his agent that he won’t go beyond the $1.35 mil given to McMann, based upon his 15g 9a 24 pts, also in 56 gp – or 82-game averages of 26g 16a 42 pts, and that could be the reason he’s asked for a trade.

        At $1.35 mi he could then easily get both under contract.

      • Hey George, I’m a bit late to the party but based on what the Leafs just signed Dewar at $1.18m per which happens to be $300k above the max you can bury in by sending him to the AHL – a sign they believe he’ll be a staple on the team somewhere.

        Will or can you say that about Robertson? I do but he’s sort of in the same bracket as Dewar, McMann and Benoit tier, ie, young good but unproven so he’s most likely get something around that range probably a couple $100k more or less than that number for maybe a year or two (year will be more) if Robertson wants to continue his Leafs career. He can score and it will be interesting to see how much value/belief in him the Leafs have which the contract will definitely tell us.

      • Ron, with Dewar in for $1,180,000, that leaves Treleving with 21 of the max 23 roster and just $1,275,333 in cap space.

        Going to be interesting to see how that unfolds. There either has to be something else brewing, or he goes into the season two players players below the 23 max, since he’ll have to option someone if he wants Robertson on his roster.

      • True but I see it shake down like it will for many cap crunched teams that need bodies… sign em up, go over the allotted amount during the offseason, have your camps and scrimmages and preseason games and make the cuts you can to be cap compliant before game one of the new season.
        For the Leafs, they will try to trade a couple of nickels for a dime but most likely end up with a nickel and not much else and make their 23 man unit….maybe. So they really don’t need to do much more with the uncertainties other than watch how things develop.

      • Puckpedia is wrong about Toronto’s cap space. For some reason Puckpedia doesn’t list Hakanpaa’s 1.5 million contract. In reality Toronto had approximately 955333 in cap space before Dewar’ signing and since Robertson has no leverage at all except to go to KHL maybe, can’t see him much more than 1.25. Robertson needs to play and hopefully they give a chance. The kid has a wicked shot but still needs to learn to play away from the puck.

      • How the heck do they omit him? CapFriendly would never have overlooked someone like that.

        Misleading as Hell when using their site to try and figure out possible moves, never mind a team’s true cap situation.

        Thanks for catching that, Yogi.

      • Hakanpaa’s 1.5 million contract has NOT been registered with the NHL yet! TML have concerns about his knee.

      • Yup it was never made official as of now but for all we know (but don’t) the offer was on a contingent but regardless he’s not officially a Leaf (yet?).

      • Huh. Learn something new every day. I don’t recall ever seeing that before in the cap era.

    • He gonna get heckled whether traded or leaving as an ufa.

    • Marner – I can’t remember one player being blamed for everything as much as this guy.

      And he holds all the cards.

  5. I feel it important to revisit the whole non tax issue, having just read an article in the Athletic about Tavares and a fight with Revenue Canada over his taxes. It is a long article, but here is my best effort at brevity.

    1. First, tax rates are indeed a significant factor in contract offers:

    “When J.P. Barry negotiates for his clients with teams in markets with lower tax rates, that difference is always aggressively pointed out. Along with an offer, a team will provide breakdowns of what it would be like in a higher tax-rate and cost-of-living market like Toronto.”

    2. A taxation mitigation strategy has been for a player to declare that his primary residence is in a non-tax state, even as he plays in Canada, to reduce his tax hit. This is simplistic, but that’s the gist of it.

    The implications for Tavares, should he lose the dispute, is “in late 2022, the CRA reassessed Tavares’ 2018 tax obligation, saying​​ he owes $6,847,428 in further taxes — plus more than $1.2M in interest.”

    3. There is at least one more tax interpretation at risk:

    “A player who is a non-resident of Canada for tax purposes could use a Retirement Compensation Agreement to significantly reduce their taxes while a member of a Canadian team.

    But as with the Tavares case, the Canadian tax authority is also scrutinizing RCAs. Three former Toronto Blue Jays are locked in court battles with the government over millions of dollars, after the CRA disputed their use of the tax-deferral strategy.”

    So taxation rates on players choices is not just real and profound now, it may be about to get a whole lot worse for Canadian teams trying to sign players going forward.

    And should the CRA win these disputes the salary cap will not be the great leveler, any more than the suggestion that wearing flip flops to the rink in the non-tax states was a disincentive. No, I didn’t make that last one up …

    • Simple cap fix….salary cap is an after tax number. So in theory every teams cap is different. It is the only true way to make it a level playing field.
      You can still choose to play in Florida for the weather, anonymity or lack of media scrutiny – but there will less financial benefit.

      • Assuming that the # is easily achievable given the myriad ways that all states, provinces and the federal government might interpret that #, what do you think the chances of the non-tax state teams agreeing to eliminate a significant advantage?

      • I’m not saying that tax vs non-tax isn’t an issue – there are bigger issues with having a hard cap and contracts that are 100% fully guaranteed.

        During the next CBA negotiations, the NHL and the NHLPA should look into a deal where the league adapt aspects of the NFL salary cap (hard cap with contracts not fully guaranteed – have the ability to cut players without a buyout) and/or the NBA salary cap (soft cap with luxury tax – the most interesting aspect being the Bird Rights where a team can exceed the salary cap to keep their own free agents. For the NHL we can call it the Gretzky Rights).

      • Joey I like your option 2 and 3. I wouldn’t mind a luxury tax but it has to be a last resort tactic like a buy out or offer sheet so hopefully we won’t need it applied to any team but I really do feel like teams should be rewarded in building their team and allowing teams to resign their own UFAs at a reduced reasonable cap hit would also be nice to see.
        Unfortunately I doubt we will see any changes…owners don’t mind the status quo.

  6. LJ- I think it’s doable. Not so sure they will have choice, there are fewer non tax state team. It would be benefit far more teams that it hurt. I dont think the Leafs Rangers Wings etc were crazy about a cap- and they were powerful governors-

    I think it would also be a huge victory for the players. Imagine signing your deal in Florida and then getting dealt to Montreal (just an example).

    Do I think it i happen- lol no. It took them 20 tears to move the Coyotes.

    • I don’t hate that idea Sam. Simple and makes sense. When I say simple I mean you simply subtract the state/provincial tax amount to get the net. The net is the cap amount.

      Any other tax mitigation strategies are up to individual players.

      It still benefits the low tax states as they don’t have to pay the players the extra to cover the tax bill. But Sam is right about the older, more financially successful teams being in the higher tax places; the NE USA and Canada. IE Edmonton is one of the smaller markets but was 8th in revenue.

      LJ, I’m surprised I haven’t heard of that Tavares issue before. Big flippin’ # and puts it in perspective.

      • Well Ray, the solution of taxing the net doesn’t address the tax deduction options that the players enjoy. Players care more about what their bottom line is, separate and distinct from the team cap.

        If CRA successfully eliminates the mentioned two tax breaks it will make for a very challenging situation for Canadian teams signing players.

        CRA, via the federal government, could exempt professional athletes, but think of the pushback. Why not exempt physicians instead?

        Sadly, I see no easy solutions.

      • Hey LJ, perhaps I didn’t word my post properly. Not talking about changing tax rules/laws.
        Simply like the idea of making the NHL cap # the net amount after taxes.

        So if 2 teams want to pay a player a cap hit of $10M that is the after fed and state tax. But they pay the player $13.5M.
        If state and fed tax id 40%, cap hit still $10M, but they pay the player $14M to keep him whole.

  7. Michkov arrived in Philadelphia today from Russia. It looks like the Flyers gamble taking him #7 has worked out. Now we’ll see what he can do on the ice.

    • If he adapts quickly he could push Celebrini for the Calder.

    • FlyerBob, the gamble with Michkov was not only when he will start playing in NHL, but his behavioral issues in Russia too. Is he a Yakupov kind of a person or a Evander Kane? That is what we will see.