NHL Rumor Mill – July 31, 2024
A look at the remaining notable restricted free agents in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
SPORTSNET: Luke Fox and Rory Boylen updated their list of the notable remaining restricted free agents following the signings of Carolina Hurricanes winger Martin Necas on Monday and New York Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren on Tuesday.
Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman still tops the list. He’s coming off a one-year, $3.45 million contract.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Nothing new to report on his contract negotiations. Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis cited AFP Analytics projecting the 25-year-old goaltender is in line for a five-year contract with an average annual value of $6.433 million. However, some recent media speculation suggests he could get around $9 million annually depending on the length of the deal.
Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider and winger Lucas Raymond sit second and third on their list. They speculate Seider could get an AAV of $8.6 million on a long-term deal but Raymond could get a mid-term commitment akin to teammate Alex DeBrincat’s four-year contract.
Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s been over a month since Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman said he’d get Seider and Raymond signed “in due time.” There’s been nothing new since then but plenty of time remains to get both players under contract before the start of training camp in mid-September. AFP Analytics projects Seider getting a seven-year deal with an AAV of $8.125 million and Raymond seven years at $7.758 million annually.
Seth Jarvis is the focus for Carolina Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky now that Martin Necas is under contract. The versatile 22-year-old forward can play center or wing and has risen among the Hurricanes’ core players. He’s coming off an entry-level contract and there’s speculation he could get an eight-year deal worth around $8 million annually.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projects a seven-year deal worth $7.75 million annually for Jarvis. Unless Tulsky makes a cost-cutting move, the Jarvis camp will have to accept much less than that because the Hurricanes only have $6.44 million in cap space.
Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill could attempt to sign defenseman Thomas Harley to a bridge contract. That’s what he did with Jason Robertson when the winger came off his entry-level contract.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Harley is projected to get a seven-year deal with an AAV of $6.922 million. However, the Stars have $6.243 million in cap space. The 22-year-old blueliner could end up with a short-term contract worth under $5 million annually.
Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers’ sophomore slump compromises his bargaining position coming off his entry-level contract. The betting is the 21-year-old center gets a bridge deal.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projects a seven-year deal worth $6.66 million annually. The Kraken have the hammer here so it could be much shorter and for around $5 million annually.
Winnipeg Jets center Cole Perfetti seems a classic case for a bridge deal after a healthy but inconsistent 2023-24 performance under former head coach Rick Bowness. However, the Winnipeg Sun’s Scott Billeck recently reported positive communication between the Perfetti camp and new Jets bench boss Scott Arniel. That could sway Perfetti into signing a long-term deal.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The projection has Perfetti in line for a seven-year deal with an AAV of $5.584 million. That could become a real bargain for the Jets if he blossoms into the scorer he was projected to become when the Jets drafted him in 2020.
The New Jersey Devils could go the bridge route with Dawson Mercer. Comparables include Ottawa’s Shane Pinto (two-year, $3.75 million AAV) and Columbus’ Kirill Marchenko (three years, $3.85 million AAV).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projected a six-year deal at $6.52 million annually. However, the Devils only have $4.9 million in cap space. Mercer will likely get a bridge deal unless the Devils shed some salary.
Cole Sillinger enjoyed a bounce-back performance from his 2022-23 sophomore slump with 13 goals and 32 points in 77 games. Like teammate Kirill Marchenko, he could get a three-year deal.
Trade Swayman for Matty Beniers straight across if he’s that valuable.
Give the net to Korpi and Bussi.
The Broons system is solid enough to run with those two and still get into the dance.
Shoreorrpark. that sentiment may soon start to gain ground when you look at a couple of interesting things from the Swayman portion of the RFA assessment by Luke Fox and Rory Boylen of Sportsnet:
Re the decision to avoid arbitration this time around: “The goalie, remember, went through arbitration last summer, where he said he was subjected to “hearing things that a player should never hear” before getting a one-year award.” One can only wonder what those “things” were.
Another is this comment by ostensibly one fan: “What baffles me about this whole Jeremy Swayman unsigned situation is that Sweeney and the front office didn’t already have a hush hush handshake agreement with Swayman’s camp before trading Ullmark”
A few weeks ago I posted here that I thought the concern about Swayman appearing then from some of the fan base was misguided, and that, as indicated by Sweeney on July 1, he would be re-signed very soon.
Well, here we are entering August and you have to begin wondering … is the Swayman camp seeking something in excess of the $8.6 mil left in the cap reserve?
I know we could say the same thing about Ullmark in Ottawa … but he’s not a UFA until the 2025-26 season and I’m still betting he signs a new deal before or at the start of training camp.
George O if I were Ullmark I would wait to see how the season is going! Players in Ottawa will be a lot closer to his days in Buffalo than in BostonThis potentially being his last contract I would tread slowly!
That could indeed turn out to be the case, Sr, as we’ve discussed before.
And as I said before, if the season turns south again and he’s not given the kind of support he got used to in Boston, leading to his decision to test the UFA waters, it’s not the end of the world.
Given that scenario, and the prospect of yet another lost season, the goaltending situation will be but one of many concerns needing remedial action – including whether Staios is up to the challenge. He and Andlauer may be friends, but the howls – not to mention ticket sales – from the fan base will be profound.
Personally, I don’t see it unfolding that way – they may not get into the playoffs, but I see a much tighter race than we’ve seen in recent years, and with the WC slots likely needing something closer to 95-96 points, I think they’ll be pushing close behind.
Will that be enough to encourage him to sign here? Hard to say – but if he doesn’t it isn’t like they gave up the farm to get him – a $4 mil goalie for 4 more seasons who has had some difficulties with consistency, a 4th line C and Ottawa’s second first round pick in this year’s draft which, as it turns out, was Boston’s to begin with and ranked at # 25.
There they took 6′ 7″ C Dean Letourneau from nearby Arnprior, Ontario who is a long long way from the NHL – assuming he even gets there.
Lyle
I realize that offer sheets are rare, but which (if any) of the RFAs you mentioned above, CAN actually be given an offer sheet?
According to this from the Web
“Currently to be tendered an offer sheet, a player must:
Have at least one NHL contract expire.
Have played at least 80 NHL games if a forward or defenseman, or 28 NHL games if a goalie (applies only for players who have 3 years of NHL service).
Thanks
New the parameters…. RFA (expired contract) having played 80/28 games.
Just thought there may be a posted list of RFAs who meet the criteria.
I thought there was also a restriction on offer sheets to any RFA in the arbitration process?
Guys like the two in Detroit and Mercer are definitely and easily matched
Harley though would be a great target to make an offer sheet on
RFA NHL Offer sheets,
I think the whole offer sheet set up need to be reviewed,
How many times has this been utilized in the past 5 years….?
its a Dud……It could add lots excitement to the NHL and to the Fan Base
the cost of the offer sheets needs to come down
What i mean bye this is the Amount of picks in
return for the player against the amount of salary
this set up should be reviewed every 5 years
I think a good start is to make it easier for teams to offer longer term contracts. If a player signs a 7 year offer sheet for 7 million per year the current system divides the total by 5 years to get the compensation. The compensation for that offer sheet is the same as a 9.8 million per year contract.