NHL Rumor Mill – August 29, 2024
Is Jeremy Swayman seeking $10 million annually? What are the Leafs’ options to bolster their left wing? What’s the latest speculation about Seth Jarvis’ contract talks with the Hurricanes? Find out in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
DOES SWAYMAN WANT $10 MILLION PER SEASON?
SPORTSNET: Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli told SN960 The FAN’s Big Show that he doubts Jeremy Swayman is seeking an average annual value of $10 million on his next contract with the Boston Bruins.
Seravalli believes the Swayman camp sought an AAV in the mid-$8 million range while the Bruins countered with something in the low $6 million range. He considers that a sizeable gap but indicates the two sides are still grinding away at it.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: $10 million annually would tie Swayman with the Florida Panthers’ Sergei Bobrovsky as the second-highest-paid goalie in the league.
Swayman’s put up good numbers over the past two seasons, took over the starter’s job last season from Linus Ullmark, and the pair won the Jennings Trophy in 2022-23. However, Bobrovsky is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner who backstopped the Florida Panthers to consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances and a championship last season.
Bobrovsky earned his hefty contract. Swayman has yet to have the type of career that merits that salary. Nevertheless, given his recent performance, he deserves a substantial raise on a long-term deal.
Something at most around $8.5 million annually seems suitable. It wouldn’t be surprising if the two sides agreed to a cap hit somewhere in the middle of their initial proposals, perhaps around $7.5 million.
WHAT ARE THE MAPLE LEAFS OPTIONS ON LEFT WING?
SPORTSNET: Luke Fox recently examined options for the Toronto Maple Leafs to bolster their left-wing depth.
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nick Robertson (NHL Images).
Internal options include Nick Robertson. However, he requested a trade and the 22-year-old restricted free agent remains unsigned. Others include Alex Steeves, Alex Nylander or Nikita Grebenkin.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Leafs GM Brad Treliving believes Robertson could help his club this season. He thinks the young winger has a tremendous opportunity to establish himself as a middle-six forward.
Treliving has indicated he’s not interested in moving Robertson. Nevertheless, as I noted yesterday, there could be teams monitoring this situation who are willing to make a pitch if the Leafs GM wants to entertain offers.
Aging unrestricted free agents Max Pacioretty, Mike Hoffman, and former Leaf James van Riemsdyk remain available. Pacioretty reportedly has offers from three teams in hand and is expected to decide soon.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: No indication yet which teams are interested in Pacioretty. Maybe the Leafs are one of them.
Physical options include former Florida Panthers forward Nick Cousins and former New York Islanders winger (and former Leaf) Matt Martin.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s not surprising that Treliving hopes Robertson will change his mind after looking at this list of available UFAs.
The scorers were once significant players but their best seasons are behind them now. Cousins and Martin provide grit but no secondary scoring.
ARE THE HURRICANES ANY CLOSER TO SIGNING SETH JARVIS?
THE ATHLETIC: Cory Lavalette lists whether the Carolina Hurricanes can sign Seth Jarvis among the five big questions they must answer before the start of the season.
Lavalette believes there’s nothing to worry about regarding Jarvis’ contract talks. The club wants him around for a long time and the winger wants to stay with the team that drafted him.
Jarvis might want a bridge contract that costs less now but will put him in line for a bigger payday down the road. The Hurricanes want to lock him into a long-term deal but prefer the average annual value to be lower than Andrei Svechnikov’s $7.75 million AAV.
THE NEWS & OBSERVER: Luke DeCock believes the Hurricanes will likely get Jarvis signed to a long-term deal rather than a bridge contract. He also considers Svechnikov’s AAV the ceiling for Jarvis’ new deal.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: This might spill over into the start of training camp but Jarvis could be signed before then. The AAV could be around $7.5 million.
With regard to Swayman keep in mind that contracts should be less about past performance and more about what the player can do going forward. Swayman is still young but if the Bruins really believe that he’ll be a top flight goalie for years to come, they should pay for it.
There are a lot of recent examples of teams doing that, Howard, including Guhle and Slav in Montreal.
What I would like to see are contracts that contains meaningful performance bonuses. Players get paid for what they actually produce.
And in anticipation of: “what if I get injured,” I’d have a pro ration clause.
LJ, In the infamous Chicago “Black”Sox scandal, pitcher Eddie Cicotte had a $10,000 bonus in his contract if he won 30 games but, according to Cicotte’s testimony, when he reached 28 wins owner Comiskey had his manager withhold him from a couple of starts so he wouldn’t have to pay out the bonus.
In the NHL what happens if a player, closing in on a performance bonus, is experiencing a slump – or not performing the way the coach likes – and so the decision is to make him a healthy scratch? Imagine the screams then from the NHLPA!
Paying according to performance would put coaches in an untenable position.
We have surely moved on from the dark days when the owners had almost feudal power over players, George.
It is hard to envision a situation where management or a coach would deliberately hold a player out of the line up to avoid a performance bonus. What NHL team would risk its ability to attract UFAs if they pulled such a stunt? And the NHLPA would surely react, as you say.
That’s not to say there would be zero controversy with performance bonuses, but if a player is scratched because they are in a slump, then the weight shifts to the player. After all, they are called performance bonuses. As much as a player advocate as I am, if a player believes they are worth big bucks, then show the confidence and earn it via deliverables.
That said, it’s my understanding that there isn’t significant use of performance bonuses as a way of meeting high $ demands by players, so all this is kind of moot, as Howard might say.
LJ. – heh – no, I’m not suggesting we could see a return to the dark ages of pro sports.
But just that, when you introduce a performance factor you’re also possibly opening the door for an increase in player disgruntlement with the way they’re being utilized by the coaches – right or wrong – and a consequent increase in dressing room tension.
Given the slow progress on Swayman’s negotiations I’m beginning to wonder if the hold-up relates more on the length of the deal.
While something in the $7 mil range seems reasonable for both sides, I can see the Bruins wanting to lock him up at that rate for at least 5 years, while Swayman – choosing to “bet on himself” as the saying goes – won’t sign for anything more than 2 years, making him UFA eligible as he approaches his 28th birthday.
If he’s played as well as he has up to now – and maybe even better – he’ll cash in.
I get the security of long term signing for the player and for the team, they “buy” more UFA years cheaper by doing long contracts but…goalies are weird.
Weird in the sense, they can win you games or become an anchor with their cap hit and don’t have much value in general. Having said that, wouldn’t short term like 4 or 5 years max be better for both?
It’s insurance that the team’s cap won’t be burdened by a sudden drop off in play, either team or goalie and having that cap space sitting on the bench. And for the player, if he’s lights out, he can get a bigger payday… a lot can happen year to year.
It’s a tough call. It’s potentially a lot of dead cap if things go sideways for the team.
MB4 100% i don’t see Sweeney walking Swayman to UFA.
He has done it, with Trent Frederick, definitely not the same but Frederick been good for the bruins.
George. Can’t see Sweeney letting him walk into UFA status in 2 years. 4 maybe if the number is good
And I certainly don’t blame Sweeney for that approach Mrbruin4. I only brought up that as a possible reason for the stalled talks. Oh to be a fly on the wall – lol.
But if that is the case, the question then becomes “who blinks first?”
I think you’re right, Swayman himself is a business major and mentioned studying the market and knowing where it is going. If he is signing long term and they are buying years from him they are going to pay- otheriwse he will sign a shorter deal.
I agree George $7 to $ 7.5 million per times 5 years.
He will still be only 40 when the deal is done and he can get another good contract.
Swayman is really good but north of $ 7.5 million.???
Curious, when did Bobrovsky sign that 10 million dollar contract. What percentage of the cap was it at the time? What accolades did he possess at the time?
Winning the Stanley cup last summer doesn’t in my mind mean he has earned the contract that he signed years before. He’s lived up to it.
My point is that it would make more sense to compare whether a player deserves a contract a bother player has signed by comparing what they each achieved before the point of signing.
Though I understand if you’re using players around the league to determine market value for what a player should likely sign for. However earning a contract and living up to a contract can be two different things.
Jeff, he signed the 7-year $70,000,000 deal on July 1, 2019 at age 31 – he’ll be 38 when it expires. The cap for the 2019-20 season was $80,000,000 making his percentage of the cap 12.5.
Jeff, link for the comprehensive stats for tenders vs just GAA and sv%. Quality of shots being faced matters too. What is shows is Bob was the best tender in the NHL for the combined 3 years heading into his contract.
I limited to starters (minutes played) or you get a bunch of backups and 3 game wonders.
Link:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=G&loc=B&toi=5000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
I did this one to include Swayman for the last 3 years.
Swayman is #6, Shesterkin is #1. Interestingly Ullmark is ahead of Swayman. So is Sorokin, Helle, and Saros if you want other comps.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=G&loc=B&toi=5000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
And for the record, his % of the cap heading into this coming season is now 11.4%
Again, just out of curiosity, I went through Puckpedia for each team and calculated what % of their cap is devoted to their goaltending (back-ups included), For Vegas and Montreal I do not count Lehner or Price, and where Boston is concerned the % shown is for a combination of Korpisalo and either Bussi or DiPietro …. with Swayman, still to be determined
Florida 16.5%
NYI 12.5%
Winnipeg 11.8%
Tampa 11.8%
Detroit 9.3%
Pittsburgh 9%
Ottawa 8.8%
Chicago 8.6%
Anaheim 8.2%
Seattle 8.1%
Los Angeles 8%
NYR 7.9%
St. Louis 7.7%
Vegas 7.6%
Buffalo 7.6%
San Jose 7.6%
Nashville 7.4%
Columbus 7.2%
Minnesota 7.1%
New Jersey 6.9%
Vancouver 6.7%
Carolina 6.1%
Dallas 5.7%
Utah 5.3%
Philadelphia 4.9%
Colorado 4.8%
Montreal 4.6%
Boston 4.3%
Edmonton 4.1%
Toronto 3.7%
Calgary 3.5%
Washington 2.1%
If anyone is interested, the league average using the above is 7.4
Quite interesting. Thanks for the work.
Some good points for sure.
However if you look at Bob’s stats compared to Swayman, he had way more playing years under his belt and had finally proven how invaluable he is to a team (I argue that Columbus may not have made ANY playoff appearances during his time if he had not been in net…)
By the time he signed with Florida I think he was worth that price tag even if it was a LITTLE risky…
Swayman has not shown this level YET. This season will tell I suppose.
Leafs and the term “Aging unrestricted free agents” seem to be an annual event.
Really, last year they signed Reeves, this year Tanev and Larsson. But then almost all of the other 31 teams did the same. So what’s your point or was there one?
Leafy Luke must have finished cleaning the pool and folding the towels at Chateau Snitch in the Muskokas and had time to scribble.
Jukebox seems to think Robertson is some sort of budding star. Decent shot but doesnt skate overly well and his defensive game is nonexistent.
Why do you post?