NHL Rumor Mill – September 4, 2024

by | Sep 4, 2024 | Rumors | 50 comments

In today’s NHL Rumor Mill, we examine the fallout from Leon Draisaitl’s expensive new contract with the Oilers and its effect on Mitch Marner’s negotiations with the Leafs plus the latest on free-agent winger Max Pacioretty.

FALLOUT FROM THE DRAISAITL CONTRACT

EDMONTON JOURNAL: David Staples cites Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli predicting it’s now a “100 percent shot that Connor McDavid signs with the Edmonton Oilers” following the club’s re-signing Leon Drasaitl on Tuesday.

Draisaitl, 28, inked an eight-year, $112 million contract extension with a league-leading $14 million average annual value beginning on July 1, 2025.

Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid (NHL Images).

There is no way that Leon is signing if there is a chance that Connor is not,” Seravalli said.

Meanwhile, Jim Matheson speculates it could cost the Oilers the league maximum of 20 percent of their overall salary cap to re-sign McDavid. If the cap is $100 million when his new contract begins, his average annual value would be $20 million.

Matheson also thinks emerging blueline star Evan Bouchard’s next contract could be at least $10 million annually.

ESPN.COM: Greg Wyshynski examined the winners and losers of Draisaitl’s new contract. The losers include those who generated rumors suggesting the Oilers star could spurn Edmonton in favor of signing with the Boston Bruins or the San Jose Sharks (the latter based on team owner Hasso Plattner being German like Draisaitl.)

Wyshynski also thinks the league loses because two of its biggest stars will play in a smaller, remote market rather than a big-city market like New York, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Toronto or Los Angeles.

However, Wyshynski makes the counterpoint that having Draisaitl and McDavid on the same roster makes Edmonton a glamour franchise and more meaningful to the league than having them lead two different franchises.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’ll be shocking if McDavid doesn’t re-sign with Draisaitl inked to a long-term extension. The earliest the Oilers can sign their captain is next July and he’ll likely regain his place as the NHL’s highest-paid player.

The rumors about Draisaitl going to Boston or San Jose were wishful thinking at best.

Edmonton could indeed become a glamour franchise with Draisaitl and McDavid there for the long haul. However, the bloom could come off that rose if they lack the cap room to maintain a Stanley Cup contender around them.

TORONTO SUN: Steve Simmons believes the Maple Leafs are unaffected by Draisaitl’s new deal with the Oilers and continues to play the waiting game with Mitch Marner. The 27-year-old right winger will be the top player in next summer’s unrestricted free-agent market with Draisaitl no longer available.

The Leafs intend to see how Marner performs under new head coach Craig Berube this season, especially in the playoffs. Meanwhile, he must also decide if he wants to stay in Toronto.

Marner carries a $10.9 million AAV for this season. Simmons suggests his new contract could come in between that and below the $14 million Draisaitl will make on his deal. He could earn more by staying in Toronto as the Leafs are known for overpaying players.

LATEST ON MAX PACIORETTY

TSN: Chris Johnston reported earlier this week that the Maple Leafs are among the teams interested in Max Pacioretty.

The 35-year-old free-agent winger suffered a twice-torn Achilles tendon in 2022-23 that threatened to end his career. However, he returned to action midway through last season with the Washington Capitals, netting 23 points in 47 games.

Johnston thinks Pacioretty is in a position to sign a contract with a team rather than a professional tryout offer.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Pacioretty has also been linked to the Anaheim Ducks and New York Rangers.







50 Comments

  1. could see Pacioretty (or JVR) signing with Columbus to fill out their left side, after the Gaudreau tragedy

    • Trade Raymond to CBJ for Sillinger, Jirasek, and a 1st

      • Why?

      • CBJ
        Are for sure continuing there rebuild,
        after moving Pat Liane & the Johnny Hockey Tragedy
        They still have the $5.4M contract for three more years of Elvis Merzlikins that they cant move
        they have $25.6M in cap space today

        my guess is they pick top 5 in the next 2-3 drafts as there young prospects continue to develope
        and trade older players for picks then hit the UFA market in a couple of years to fit there depth out on the team

      • Pick one of those three assets as a starter.

      • Why? CBJ is in a pickle and may overpay to get a young scoring forward. Detroit needs a center and a RD and then will get rid of Holl by trade or waiving him. Probably, Detroit would rather keep Raymond then shake up the team at this late stage of the summer.

      • “Probably, Detroit would rather keep Raymond then shake up the team at this late stage of the summer.”

        That’s the correct answer.

      • You are way overvaluing Raymond. Good young player. But two other good young players… one a potential star… and what likely is a top tier 1st round pick!?!? Wha?

      • @JohnnyZ
        Let’s not and say we did, Lucas Raymond isn’t going anywhere, Especially to Columbus.

    • Columbus is now under cap floor. They need to sign someone

      • This begs an awful question. If a star player dying puts a team under the cap floor does the nhl punish them? Does the jackets or insurance pay the family the salary?

      • Maybe Kadri comes to CBJ
        Kent Johnson for Kadri (retain 1.5M)
        A trade for a quality older player to make the cap floor! And having to lose 12 years of a player’s life!

      • “Maybe Kadri comes to CBJ” His no-movement clause says no.

  2. Simmons us right, the Leafs will not be affected by the Draisetel signing because Marner simply is not in the same class if player.

    • My thoughts exactly. If Manner was playing anywhere other than Toronto that would be obvious.

      • Yeah, Just like Hyman.

    • Mitch Marner to CLB !!

  3. Oilers are Toronto west. Let’s get our top 4 players pay them as much as they want and have bottom feeders on the rest of our roster.What could go wrong? Unless they win it this year they will be done as those players age. Bouchard you want 10 million sure sign here.

    • except the Oilers win PO rounds…

    • So Pete, if you were the Oilers GM, what would you have done with Draisaitl? And then McDavid and Bouchard, would you care to elaborate on that as well?

      If trade him, what type of assets in return you thinkin’?

      Let him walk?

  4. Thé Leafs should have ZERO interest in Paccioretti

    They need to give real opportunity to prospects not block them with washed up vets

  5. I am in agreement with the comment (only in Toronto) Marner has been overpaid for the length of his contract and he is definitely not in the Draisaitl league I would also let him walk

    • Why let an asset walk for nothing?

      • LJ, because Marner has a No Movement Clause in his contract. Next summer, Leafs can re-sign Mitch at $11 million plus or spend the money elsewhere.

        Let’s see how well Marner adapts to his new coach. Berube isn’t going anywhere, so if Mitch becomes disgruntled during the season, he could conceivably request a trade.

  6. if Draisatl’s signing has an impact on Marner signing than there is something wrong with leafs management. Draisatl is a superior player in every way. The fact that Marner’s name is even mentioned in that class in ridiculous. It’s even more silly he is compared to Matthews. Just trying to stress the lunacy of putting Marner in that class at all.

    On a side note- and I know i’m knit picking here… but Marner’s toughness, mental and physical, has been questioned all summer..so what does he do…? He decides he wants to wear white skates next year lol….
    this will go over really well lol

    I am extremely curious if he gets to UFA what he will get annually. Does he get over 11?

    • Draisatl’s signing should impact Marner’s next contract. If Draisatl is worth 14 per in todays market and Marner being half the player he is, Marner’s next contract should be half of Draisatl’s deal. Simple math

      • LOL

      • Nice one Yogi

        Setting aside the hyperbole of 50% ($7M) there is s proportionate fall out

        IF Marner performance does not slide; his team will now definitely ask for more than they had anticipated say in the spring.

        Notice, I carefully said “ask for” not “will get”.

        As top player contracts increase; and league min contract values set; the big increases at the top; overall anyway; will likely negatively affect the middle level type contracts

        Not sure where Marner plays in 25/26 or what he’ll end up getting; but I’d think his team (as at now) is thinking (them not I) that they need to start their ask at $12M at least

        Now if his play this year slides; he’ll have to take what he can

        But if he continues at pace (all of last 3 seasons he was at an 82 game pace North of 100 points; last 3 years 82 game goal pace if 49,31,31) then some team will give him a reasonable raise

      • Yes I know George logic never plays much of a role when it comes GM’s signing players. I like Marner, but he’s just not worth what he wants

    • Which manufacturer is making the white skates Sam?

      Last guy I remember was Federov with the Nike’s. Some funny commercials if I recall. Must have been others that I just don’t recall.

      That guy was a good flippin’ player, one of the best 2 way C’s of all time.

      Maybe Marner wants to channel his inner Sergei.

    • Sam, for some reason I can’t help but wonder if much of the venom being directed at Marner stems to some significant degree from frustration over the impact his current cap hit has on the GM’s ability to flesh out other parts of the roster with better talent without giving him credit for his production so far.

      I say that because, when you compare his career stats to date, while not quite in the same class as Draisaitl and Matthews – to use your two examples – are still exceptional.

      For starters he has played 143 less career games than has Draisaitl. and with that in mind here are their comparative career stats to date:

      Marner – 576gp 194g 445a 630 pts for 82-game averages of 28g 63a 91 pts – or 1.1 pts per game. In 57 playoff games he has 11g 39a 50 pts, averaging 0.2 gpg and 0.7 apg – or 0.9 ptspg

      Draisaitl – 719gp 347g 503a 850 pts for 82-game averages of 40g 57a 97 pts – or 1.2 pts per game. In 74 playoff games he has41g 67a 108 pts, averaging 0.6 gpg and 0.9 apg – or 1.5 ptspg

      Matthews, meanwhile, has played 562 career games with 368g 281a 649 pts for 82-game averages of 54g 41a 95 pts – or 1.2 ptspg. In 55 playoff games he has 23g 25a 48 pts averaging 0.4 gpg and 0.5 apg – or 0.9 ptspg

      Marner has a big enough sample to postulate that, had he played those fewer 143 regular season games and 17 playoff games than has Draisaitl we could be looking at career stats of 237g 559a 796 pts and playoff stats of 14g 51a 75 pts.

      So, certainly still far enough back of Draisaitl – especially in playoff hockey – to argue that he can’t legitimately be looking at an annual cap hit of $14 mil … but he’s not exactly an overrated slug either. If he tests UFA waters next year you can bet one of those teams with projected considerable cap space will offer something in the range of $11.5 to $12 mil.

      • George, I agree that Marner gets more heat than Matthews or Nylander for the Leafs playoff woes. It’s not all his fault, it’s a collective fault.

        But some validity for the criticism lies in Marner’s playoff production. Looking at goals scored in the playoffs, he has scored 11 goals in 57 games, a woeful .19% per game average. A player earning top $ has to produce way more.

        If the comparison is Draisaitl, he has scored 41 goals in 74 games, a .55 goals per game clip. And while subjective, surely everyone can see he plays a more physical, playoff style game.

        By the by. Matthews scores at a .41 clip, and Nylander at a .37 clip, and let’s throw in McDavid, .50 clip.

        So in this small sample, Marner is by far the poorest scoring playoff performer.

      • Marner’s biggest issue is his team can’t afford to pay him what he’s worth as his salary is better allocated to other multiple players/positions. If the Leafs could have traded him this summer they would have. What they should have done is tell him to go find the contract he wants with another team. Give the list of teams to Tre that will pay him the contract he wants and let Tre negotiate with those teams. He’s a good player – he’s just the odd man out in the “Core Four”. Willie and Papi got paid. Tavares will accept less money to stay. If Marner wants what he’s worth he’ll have to make it somewhere else – The Leafs would like to keep him but can’t for what he’s worth and break the cycle of 1st round exits. Nothing against him but he’s peaked and he is what he is. A great regular season playmaking winger…

      • LJ, while I’m not about to dispute your observation about his playoff goal production – on the surface it is pretty anaemic – but I also think there may be extenuating circumstances.

        The way I’ve viewed Marner is as an elite playmaker – borne out by his career 445 assists and 39 in playoff hockey – and have often wondered why one of the coaches – over the course of his career – did not try to play him at C.

        But that’s neither here nor there. He’s been played at wing and I would bet that opposing teams in the playoffs over the years have also seen that quality in his game and so made sure he got some extra checking attention in order to stymie that as much as possible.

        And because of the Leafs high % of the cap annually spent on their top 5 (Rielly included there), their production after the top 2 lines falls of a cliff for the most part, and that gets emphasized in the playoffs where, over the course of the core 4 playing together, they have only got past round 1 once.

        Even so, when you look at the playoff performances of the core 4, Marner comes out on top in total production:

        Marner 57gp 11g 39a 50 pts
        Matthews 55gp 23g 25a 48 pts
        Nylander 54gp 20g 23a 43 pts
        Tavares 38gp 12g 12a 24 pts (in Toronto)

        And Marner currently has the lowest cap hit of the 4.

      • If Marner was making 8 to 9 per, there’d be very little heat on him. For all the stats being thrown around, try looking at just the deciding games of a series and who scores the big goals or makes the big plays. I haven’t had time, middle of downsizing, but it would probably be a truer indicator of a players value

      • I don’t care enough to find the article on Sportsnet, but one of the columnists on there who was a scout and uses analytics as well to quantify what he sees, wrote an interesting article on why he thought the Leafs struggled in the playoffs again this year.

        2 basic points:

        1 – where the shots came from in the post season vs regular season. The average shot distance in the playoffs increased significantly from the regular season from the “Core 4”. Only one of the 4 was close to the regular season distance from the net, I want to say Nylander, but not 100 on that. Definitely wasn’t Marner. Tavares gets most of his shots closer in than the rest, but he got pushed away from the net this year as well. Marner is always out there, but also plays the point on the PP.

        2 – too many hope passes in the o-zone that end up going the other way. They gave up possession too easily. Smart teams try and keep possession and battle for it down low vs throwing it blindly out front.

        The good news is these are fixable, and the good ole’ Calahoo boy, Berube, seems like the kind of guy that will focus on above, or he is gonna let ya know.

        If Marner walks, and Tavares doesn’t re-sign, the Core 4 becomes the Core 2 in a heartbeat. Will definitely test the theory of “use the cap space on multiple guys to fill different roles”. As the Leafs will have a whack of space, we’ll see if they are a better team. Wonder who they replace those guys with?

      • Ray not sure who it is but I saw the clip a few weeks ago and a pic.

        George- personally I just dont like the player, I do understand all the regular season statistical comparison and his points, but they are hollow. He just isn’t an impactful player when it matters.

        Many will say, neither is Matthews, but I disagree. The eye test tells me that Matthews suffers (in the playoffs mind you) playing with Marner. Marner cannot cycle, does not sustain wall pressure and cannot stay on his feet, the game is too physical for him it seems. Nothing to do with size, many other smaller players have fared incredibly well, BUT they were willing to adjust their games (dumping the puck and laying out their bodies) . Marner just isnt willing too. It isnt one playoff season i am judging either. The last part of the season where Matthews played with Domi and Bert he flourished and his game changed, he adjusts every playoff, results arent there as much as you like but he is a presence. Marner isnt, and for whatever reason that coaching staff continues to run him out there 25 mins a game.

        Many have speculated he does what he wants, will see how that fares for him this year. Will be interesting. I really think the leafs wanted to trade him AND i really think they are fine with him walking away. He is closer to Sebastian Aho then he is to Auston Matthews.
        Would love to see Marner run his own line without Mathews and see how he fares, if he repeats his numbers without him then more power to him. Matthews made Domi look like a top set up man lol.
        marner may get 12 but not a contending one

      • Fair, George, I am mindful of the fact that the defensive weakness of the Leafs affects offence.

        But my last word on this is that I focused on goals because it’s clear who is responsible for the puck going into the net.

        With assists, it isn’t as clear, as in primary versus secondary assists. No way it will change but it would be a lot clearer about a player’s contribution to the offence if there was just one assist given out.

      • Ray Nylander and Tavares both had net front presence. Matthews got close enough to see the net and they had to show Marner pictues of what he was supposed to be shooting at. Sure didn’t need analytics to figure that one out. Yes Marner and Matthews got points but not when they were needed the most. The few goals they got came from Nylander, Bertuzzi and Tavares. According to Freidman and Chris Johnson, Tavares will sign a 4 year deal for a little over 4 per. Ray you’re right about the passes

  7. Re McDavid contract (BTW for sure he’s signing with Oilers!)

    Draisitl $14 M; so my guess is $15.5 M -$16.5 M for McDavid

    Re $20 M . Not happening

    $20 M was per above; based on Matheson suggesting max contract and multiplying by a hypothetical $100 M

    With that in mind, I have a question for Lyle OR anybody else here pertaining to the CBA and the 20%

    McDavid, or anybody in the future who may be considered for 20%…. As at the time of signing (1 year in advance; year -1 of contract) the Cap ceiling for the first year of that contract is not known; so:

    Is the contract worded to guarantee 20% of Cap once determined; OR is the 20% max applied immediately to known ceiling amount (contract year -1)??

    • St Ivany played well in the third pair. Definitely nhl ready. Yet you’d rather have two players no teams want to take a chance on?

      • I just don’t think St.Ivany is quite ready yet.

        Hope I’m wrong on that as Dubas seems to refuse to take any chance to make us playoff bound; and right now St. Ivany is our next Rightie on the depth chart

        Lidstrom for sure would be better… just look what he did while playing on the lowly Ducks last year

        Most Ducks were deep negative numbers in +/- (Fowler was -36)

        Lidstrom was +12

        At the very least sign him to a PTO, see what he does in training camp

        Fixing a third pairing RD issue certainly doesn’t get us into playoffs (we still have only 5 top 6 players, and a weak bottom 6; and a sloth of a skater[who only plays a 100’ game] at 3C); but it’s a start

        I’m still worried that Crosby hasn’t re-upped yet.

        Crosby (with his “waiting” ) is clearly trying to send a message to Dubas

        Yes we’ve been spoiled with 5 cups in just over 3 decades

        Perhaps we keep our fingers crossed to scoop up Bedard’s cousin at 1st overall in ‘26; and start from there again

  8. All these PTO signings;

    and nigh/at league min signings;

    and even 2 way contract signings for league min for veteran RDs (e.g. Burtozzo)

    and still unsigned young NHL RDs (Lidstrom and Addison) as well as some older RDs still available

    …. and we only have 2 RDs (Letang and Karllsson; note St.Ivany not truly NHL ready)

    and we have space

    and we’ve missed 2 playoffs in a row

    And team not as good as last year; while other Eastern WildCard level teams improved

    C’mon Dubas. Pick up the phone and get pen to paper.

    Also, lets get a trade out of some deadweight (Accairi to start would be nice)

    • If Acciari is so obviously a deadweight what makes you think anyone would give up an asset to get him when – to use your argument – there are still better UFAs floating about?

      • Oh I have no illusions that Accairi would fetch anything

        We’d need to add a sweetener to rid him

        Safest move is send him to the farm (burying $1.15 M ) and let any of our young 20’s forwards play (they’re mostly at league min)…. Net affect is roster improvement and also gainingCap space

    • 8787
      Dude Dubas has done a good job picking up assets, picks, getting younger, and being a more balanced team.

      We have three right side defenseman
      Letang Karlsson St. Ivany

      We missed the playoffs the last two years by a total of 4 points for heavens sake…relax
      The Penguins will be better, younger, faster and deeper..

      McGroarty 20
      Glass 25
      Lizotte 26
      Beauvillier 27
      Ponomarev 22

      If they somehow get Robertson from Toronto he is only 22…..Move Accairi even at 50% retained still save a million and Eller who played well someone could use a dependable 3rd line center 15-20 goals

      Crosby Rust Beauvillier
      Malkin Bunting Rackell
      Hayes Oconnor Ponomarev/ maybe Robertson
      Lizoote Glass McGroarty

      Out
      Carter/Accairi/Nieto/Smith Embstrom Pulujarvi Eller

      IN
      lLizzotte
      Glass
      McGroarty
      Beauvillier
      Ponomarev
      Hayes

      Ill take this switch anytime..

      • Hi BlacknGold

        We unfortunately will not see eye to eye on the subjective question of the expected ability of the current roster vs last year

        I fully believe this roster is worse than last year (when we didn’t make playoffs and note other Eastern conference Wild Card contenders improved)

        Re younger…. Not really true

        I posted in July that the 23 man roster (that they had then) would actually be older as at day 1 this October than the 23 man roster as at first game in October of ‘23. The ‘23 roster was taller and heavier. This was a fact as at 23 man roster in July

        Remember,

        As at now we have 14 players that were on the 23 roster last year, that are still on the team. So 14 players , come October, are 1 year older than last October (note , as at now Dubas has said Accairi is still playing , and he’s made no mention whatsoever re: moving Eller). On top of those players being 1 year older, Dubas replaced (very bad move) P-O J with Grzylyck (5 1/2 years older).

        The only changes NOW on Puckpedia from this July’s Puckpedia 23 on Penguin’s roster (when that 23 man roster as at this October was going to be older (very slightly but older) than last October’s average age ) is Glass in for Pulljarvi and McGroarty in for Broz …. The net swing to the average age now makes the current 23 man roster, as at this October, to 1 decimal place, the same average age as the Penguins 23 man roster from last year.

        Re your proposed roster, you have Accairi and Eller out. As at now they are in.

        As at now they are talking O’Connor replacing Guentzel on Crosby’s line. That’s a very large drop in production. You have Beaulivier in instead of O’Connor. That’s even more significant a loss.

        Carter out and Hayes in. The only true gain is 2” in height (but he doesn’t use it) and younger. Carter at 39 is faster, waaaay better defensively, plays a 200’ game (vs 100’ game) . Carter is stronger, a bit heavier, and has waaaaaaay more grit. Production? Look at who Hayes had as wingers last year and time on ice vs what Carte had. They better play Glass at 3C. Let Hayes and Eller split4C duties. Better still, punt Hayes at least.

        On D…. PO-J out and Gryzlyk in…. Very very very big net loss. 5 1/2 years older, much much shorter, lighter, waaaay slower, less offense, poorer defensively; and P-O J already had very good chemistry when playing with Letang and was starting to gell when playing with Karllsson

        The ideal move would have been to acquire Laine

        The following roster DEFINITELY would have made playoffs and fit into our Cap (with room to spare)

        Crosby Laine Rackell
        Malkin Rust Bunting
        Glass O’Connor McGroarty
        Eller Beauvillier Poulin
        13th/14th – 2 of Pulljarvi OR Puustinen. OR Bemstrom OR Kovinen OR Pomoronov

        Letang Pettersson
        Karllsson P-O J
        Lidstrom Graves
        7th D : one of Pickering OR Ludwig OR St. Ivany OR Shea

        Jarry/Bloomquist

        Have we gained a few future assets. Yes a few. But this comes with a current roster that is not built to get into the playoffs.

  9. Marner signs with the Bruins next summer & sets up Pastrnak to become the 25/26 Rocket Richard trophy winner!!!

    BaaaaaaHaHaHa!!!!

    Marner’s Point per Game last season was still higher than Jack Hughes, Willie Nylander, Elias Pettersson, Jack Eichel or even Sasha Barkov.

    I will never understand all the Marner hate????

    • I agree.

    • What was it in goals per game and take salary into account?