NHL Rumor Mill – October 10, 2024
Check out the latest on Igor Shesterkin, Nikolaj Ehlers, Sam Bennett and Filip Gustavsson plus updates on the Ducks and Leafs in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
THE LATEST “32 THOUGHTS” RUMOR TIDBITS
SPORTSNET: In his latest “32 Thoughts” column, Elliotte Friedman reports he’s had no firm confirmation that the New York Rangers offered Igor Shesterkin an eight-year, $88-million contract. However, if that was the offer that was made, it’s no surprise the 28-year-old goaltender rejected it.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: ESPN’s Kevin Weekes first reported this story. He has a solid track record for breaking news like this. Friedman isn’t saying Weekes was given the wrong info, only that his own sources can’t confirm the numbers.
New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (NHL Images).
Friedman believes the Rangers aren’t comfortable with Shesterkin’s asking price, which would also make him their highest-paid player. He also cites teams and agents saying the percentage of the salary cap is a critical factor, especially with the cap expected to rise. “No agent or player wishes to sign something that looks relatively small if things go where predicted,” wrote Friedman.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The New York Post’s Mollie Walker reported in June that the Rangers netminder would seek an average annual value of $12 million on a long-term deal.
There are fewer A-list goaltenders these days which is why their wages overall have been suppressed. Nevertheless, the Rangers have a top goalie in Shesterkin, prompting Friedman to suggest that they will eventually meet his asking price because of his value to the club.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I’ve been saying that for weeks and I know I’m not the only one who feels that way. You can debate whether Shesterkin deserves $12 million annually but he’s perfectly positioned to make that request.
Friedman admits there were times last summer when he thought the Minnesota Wild would trade goaltender Filip Gustavsson.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Wild are starting this season with Gustavsson, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Jesper Wallstedt in goal. Gustavsson could be moved at some point but it could be difficult to find him sufficient playing time to generate interest among other clubs. They might have to wait until the trade deadline.
Friedman wondered if an eve-of-season contract extension was possible between the Winnipeg Jets and winger Nikolaj Ehlers.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Spoiler alert: it didn’t happen.
Ehlers is slated to become a UFA next July. He appeared in trade rumors during the draft in June but that talks fizzled out as Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and head coach Scott Arniel sang his praises while offering their expectations of his role with the club this season.
After signing Carter Verhaeghe to a contract extension, the Florida Panthers are expected to focus on retaining Sam Bennett.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Panthers will have a projected $20 million in cap space for 2025-26 if the salary cap rises as projected by $4.5 million. That would give them enough to re-sign Bennett but he will want a substantial raise over his current $4.425 million cap hit.
Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler will draw interest in the trade market. Friedman believes the St. Louis Blues took a long look at him. However, it’ll take time for interested teams that currently lack salary cap space to pursue him.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Fowler carries an AAV of $6.5 million through 2025-26.
Speaking of the Ducks, Friedman said things are quiet on the Trevor Zegras front. He noted there was speculation last season linking the 23-year-old forward to the Montreal Canadiens but that’s cooled off.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Canadiens made their big move for a forward by acquiring Patrik Laine in August. Laine is currently sidelined until December with a sprained knee but they’re reportedly going to ride things out with their current roster until he returns.
LATEST ON THE MAPLE LEAFS
SPORTSNET: Luke Fox included Mitch Marner on his recent list of 25 people who will define the 2024-25 NHL season. The 27-year-old Toronto Maple Leafs winger is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Fox will be surprised if Marner accepts a contract extension with an average annual value less than teammate William Nylander’s $11.5 million.
Leafs general manager Brad Treliving could attempt to trade Marner before the March 7 trade deadline, which is unlikely given the winger’s full no-movement clause. He could re-sign him to a lucrative new offer during this season or wait and see how this season unfolds.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli also wonders what the end game will be for Marner. He doesn’t think the Leafs want to let Marner walk next summer but he also doesn’t see them trying to move him at the trade deadline if they’re a 100-point team by then, especially with Marner’s NMC giving him complete control over his situation.
I think Treliving waits until the regular season is over to make his decision. He’ll likely let Marner walk if the Leafs make another early postseason exit.
Fox’s colleague Elliotte Friedman reports it sounds like the Toronto Maple Leafs are shopping Timothy Liljegren. The 25-year-old defenseman has tumbled down their depth chart.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Leafs reportedly looked into peddling Liljegren before signing him in June to a two-year contract with an AAV of $3 million. He’s an expensive seventh defenseman for the Leafs but could be a suitable addition for clubs looking for reasonably-price blueline depth.
I’m not in favor of handing ANY goaltender 11-12 million. Goaltenders can not, do not win games. When Shesterkin starts contributing 20 goals while maintaining elite numbers in net I’ll change my mind.
All that being said, I think NY should pay the man, but who is there competition? Anaheim? Good luck with that! Keep it somewhat reasonable.
If he does get paid, don’t pull a Drew Doughty and complain about the team that rots around you because of cap issues!
NY can make this work in the short term, but will have to move Trouba, or some big contract going forward. If they feel comfortable with Mancini and Jones move out Lindgren and Trouba. They also have cheap options at forward in Othmann, Berard, Sykora and Perreault. But eventually, Shesterkin will put the squeeze on the cap in 3 years or less. Even with Panarin and Trouba set to expire after next year.
Captain Obvious, I agree totally with your general observation on the Rangers’ quandary surrounding Shesterkin, and the necessity to move out a big contract … or two … if and when they give in to his $12 mil range demands, along with the unavoidable effect it will have on the cap down the line. In fact, I posted something along those lines yesterday.
Just one tiny disagreement. Last night Montembeault demonstrated that a goaltender can win a game in that 46-shots against barrage 1-0 upset of the Leafs, whose powerful offense hadn’t been shut out in something like 3 seasons!
I see it a bit differently George. Caufield won the game. Montembeault Kept them in the game.
And I agree with a goaltender can steal a game, hell a goaltender can even steal a series. But as Sheterkins predecessor showed us, a goaltender can’t steal multiple series. Nor is it fair to hang that expectation on a goaltender.
To me, it’s a very interchangeable position not worth tying I’ll that much of the cap % up on.
That’s not to say that all goaltenders are equal. Sheterkin, Vasilesky etc. are much better than most. But a good defense and defensive system can mask a lot of net issues imo. But that costs money too.
But Caufield’s goal would have been meaningless if Montembeault had let in two goals…
And Montembeault SO would have been worth nothing without Caufields goal. Or someone’s goal.
Again, I don’t believe there is one example of a goaltender with a gwg in the NHL. Steal a game ? Sure, win a game? Not so much.
Does anyone expect Montembeault to win (tie really) every game with a shut out and zero goals for? Or even Montembeault to steal every game 2-1?
Almost like maybe it’s a team sport 😛
Captain
I guess you missed the 1993playoffs when Roy said no and carried Habs to cup or 2011 when Tim Thomas shut the door on all to hoist cup
One example is pre cap, (we can just throw that one out the window) the other is one example in the cap era. Thomas also was making less than 10% of the total cap.
Shesterkin at 12 per is nearly 14% of today’s cap. With guys like Miller , Laffrienere, Kakko, Cullye , Lindgren up for new deals, Schneider , Panarin, Trouba the year after, we’re not even comparing apples to oranges, we’re comparing apples to battleships.
Bobrovsky, Vasilesky are more current examples. But Florida and Tampa were built to win. Florida may have been the best constructed team in the cap era. Those deals also cost both teams a great deal of players in the process.
If we’re living in 1993 I’d pay shesterkin 20 per for 15 years. But unfortunately for NY, we’re 30+ years removed and have a salary cap to deal with.
Mike Keenan, after game 1 of the 1994 Stanley Cup Final: “Vancouver won that game because of their goaltender, period.”
Kirk was a gem.
Sorry, stealing a game or winning a game fro you is just hair-splitting. He doesn’t get a shutout last night they don’t win. If both goalies shut ou during regulation and OT they’ve won thei team a point, it’s symantics. I do agree that you can’t pay a goalie like that long-term, very few goalies seem to be consistent over a long time-frame. there are obviously exceptions but a lot more guys who get hot through a playoffs and then come back to earth or worse. Remember the Hamburgler?
Actually, Martin Gelinas scoring late in the 3rd to tie the game and take it to overtime probably had a lot more to do with the outcome of game 1 than anything else. The Rangers were 60 seconds away from a 2-1 victory.
Maybe we can turn that into Mike Richter screwed NY with 60 seconds in regulation?
@captain obvious perhaps we can haha.
Look, I see your point, it is more semantics than anything though right? It’s like when someone calls something “epic”. There is a slight exaggeration that is generally accepted as partly an opinion. Like, wow that guy played so great he won the game for them.
I would think the bigger question for the Rangers is, if not Shesty then who? The playoffs, imho, showed the Rangers need a 1A+ goalie in net to go deep. I don’t know the answer, but who could the Rangers get to replace Shesty? Failing to answer this, I think the Ranger path is clear, pay the man.
I think you could also flip that question around. If not NY, then who is going to pay him more than 11 per?
Columbus, Anaheim or San Jose?
It certainly won’t be Edmonton, Vancouver, Toronto, Vegas , Florida, Tampa , Boston etc. well, not unless they want to shed a Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Mathews , Marner etc.
Captain Obvious, don’t discount Florida as an option here. Their goalie cap allocation is intriguing right now. Both Bob and Knight are on contract for this season and next at a total of $14.5M.
It’s unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility that if the season ends and Shesterkin makes it to UFA, Florida could shed both Bob and Knight with a single year remaining, sign Shesterkin to $12M, add a low-cost backup and still end up with a slightly lower cap hit.
Matt,
Anything is possible I suppose, but finding a partner to take Bobrovsky at 37 and a 10 per cap hit with a 16 team no trade clause will be problematic / difficult.
Honestly, Florida should probably keep knight around. Getting out from Bobrovsky and jumping into Shesterkin would probably be a bad idea.
Verhaeghe Goes up 3 million next year. Bennnet? Ekblad?
I don’t think Florida will be that team to worry about.
I would think that some competitive teams lacking a franchise goalie (Canes, others) might consider it. It depends how attractive the team is to Shesty – but definitely not out of the question
Definitely not out of the question. Using hypotheticals I guess we could use 31 other teams. But again, that’s with taking into consideration the other teams UFA’s / Rfa’s , team needs and where they’re at today or next year.
Carolina for example has 8 UFA’s to re-sign or replace next year and 68 million committed to the rest of the roster. Spending half of the available cap space on shesterkin will leave them a little thin to fill out a roster.
Anything’s possible, but most scenarios seem unlikely fit because of cap, or the team in front of Shesterkin.
Somehows Vegas will figure it out.
Chrism,
Now there is an example I can’t argue.
If I was leaf’s I move on from Marner and sign shirk if make ufa Probably help them win a cup they have been begging for
If Treliving believes his current tandem is a cup-winning tandem, he’s pulling the Woll over our eyes.
Augustus well done lol. That being said- did anyone think Stu Skinner was the guy lol- when they were ready to bench him during the playoffs. Goalies have to start somewhere. Even Bobrovsky was being looked at as a buyout candidate before the hot streak.
Both guys are capable of taking them deep- truth is goaltending hasnt been their issue in the playoffs- its scoring
Valid points Sam. It just feels like they have the next Kari Lehtonen on their hands. Great talent, too oft-injured to make it count.
Something tells me just to never count Vegas out of these major deal discussions. Whether Shesterkin goes there as a UFA next summer, when both Hill and Samsonov are UFAs, or if they swing a massive in-season trade for him this year, I just can’t count them out.
The likelihood is minutely low, but could a massive blockbuster occur whereby any NMC/NTC holders waive?
Shesterkin and Zibanejad to Vegas for Eichel + ??
The Rangers might believe that Eichel as their 1C is just a better bet than what they have right now. Could they trust Adin Hill to repeat what he did for Vegas in 2022-23 if he goes the other way as part of it? The rags could still use better depth/more impact at RW.
Framework:
To Vgk:
Igor Shesterkin
Mika Zibanejad
Kaapo Kakko
To Nyr:
Jack Eichel
Adin Hill
Alexander Holtz
-Draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
Rangers goalie options for 2025-26:
Adin Hill (re-sign)
John Gibson (trade)
Elvis Merzlikins (trade)
Philipp Grubauer (trade)
Karel Vejmelka (UFA)
Charlie Lindgren (UFA)
Could be interesting to see Holtz come in to New York and terrorize the Devils team that gave up on him (plus a 3rd rounder) to make room for Paul Cotter.
Cap-wise, not sure if it works, I’ve only had one coffee and didn’t check lol.
Augustus, whether Shesterkin remains with the Rangers or winds up elsewhere next season, that team will vault into the list of teams that spend the greatest proportion of their cap on goaltending – and in terms of playoff aspirations, that group does all right.
As posted back in September, heading into current contracts this season and the $88 mil cap, here is the cap % devoted by each team to their goaltending – updated to include Swayman and not including those like Price and Lehner.
less than 5% of their cap – 3 of the teams are a virtual lock to make the playoffs (Toronto, Edmonton, Colorado – 2 are possibles – Washington and Calgary – Montreal is a long-shot):
Washington (Lindgren – Thompson) – 2.1%; Calgary (Vladar – Wolf) – 3.5%; Toronto (Stolarz – Woll) – 3.7%; Edmonton (Skinner – Pickard) – 4.1%; Montreal (Montembeault – Primeau) – 4.6%; Colorado (Georgiev – Annunen) – 4.8%;
5% to 7.9% of their cap – 5 of these teams are a virtual lock to make the playoffs (Dallas, Carolina, Vancouver, Nashville, Vegas, NYR – 2 are possibles – New Jersey & St. Louis – Utah, Philadelphia, Minnesita, Columbus Buffalo and San Jose are long-shots:
Utah (Vejmelka – Ingram) – 5.3%; Philadelphia (Fedotov – Ersson) – 5.4%; Dallas (Oettinger – DeSmith) -5.7%; Carolina (Anderssen – Kotchetkov) – 6.1%; Vancouver (Demko – Silovs) – 6.7%; New Jersey (Markstrom – Allen) – 6.9%; Minnesota (Gustavsson – Fleury) – 7.1%; Columbus (Merzlikins – Tarasov) -7.2%; Nashville (Saros – Wedgewood) – 7.4%; Vegas (Hill – Samsonov) – 7.6%; Buffalo (Luukkonen – Levi) – 7.6%; San Jose (Vanecek – Blackwood) –
7.6%; St. Louis (Binninhton – Hofer) -7.7%; NYR (Shesterkin – Quick) – 7.9%;
8% to 10% of their cap – none are virtual locks to make the playoffs – 3 are possibles – Los Angeles, Detroit and Seattle – are long-shots – Chicago, Ottawa, Pittsburgh:
Los Angeles (Kuemper – Rittich) – 8%; Seattle (Grubauer – Daccord) – 8.1%; Anaheim (Gibson – Reimer) – 8.2%; Detroit (Husso – Talbot) – 8.2%; Chicago (Mrazek – Brossoit) – 8.6%; Ottawa (Ullmark – Forsberg – 8.8%); Pittsburgh (Jarry – Nedeljkovic) – 9%;
11% and up – 4 of the 5 are virtual locks to make the playoffs with the NYI a possible:
Tampa (Vasilevskiy – Hohansson) – 11.8%; Winnipeg (Hellebuyck – Kahkonen) -11.8%; NYI (Sorokin – Varlamov) -12.5%; Boston (Swayman – Korpisalo) – 12.7%; Florida (Bobrovsky – Knight) – 16.5%
Appreciate the detailed response George, and the time it takes! Though something tells me, like my dad sorting out a tax return, that you rather enjoy the effort!
I don’t see a trade like this ever happening for any two teams in the cap era.
George O saw Ullmark goes from 5 million to 8.25! That should push Ottawa over the 11% figure! So next year They are a virtual lock to make the playoffs!So this year is a freebie!
And if you watched the second and third period of the Sens home opener Ullmark kept them in a game they had no business winning. He pretty much earned his entire pay check in the third. Gonna be a long season if it keeps up like that.
Here’s a suggestion for Shesterkin and all Russian hockey players, go back to Russia and make your money in the KHL. The NHL or perhaps governments should ban all Russian hockey players no different than sanctioning Russians for their brutal continued illegal operation in Ukraine.
Excellent points, for cnn or Fox News to argue. Not a hockey rumor page.
A top notch goalie isn’t needed to get into the playoffs, certainly not a $12 million, that just works against solidifying the lineup.
A SC team needs a hot goalie, gritty guys who rise to occasion and solid coaching that can outscheme opponents.
Every a different hot goalie does the job.