NHL Rumor Mill – December 30, 2024
In today’s NHL Rumor Mill, we review some proposed destinations for recent notable trade candidates.
THE ATHLETIC: Pierre LeBrun and Chris Johnston recently played “NHL Trade Matchmaker” by predicting where the top trade candidates could end up by the March 7 deadline.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Follow the links above to see their full lists and the reasons behind their proposed deals. I’m singling out the five most notable, offering a brief take on each.
Ivan Provorov, Columbus Blue Jackets: LeBrun has the 27-year-old defenseman going to the Colorado Avalanche while Johnston sees the Tampa Bay Lightning as a landing spot.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Avalanche have $3.75 million in trade-deadline cap space while the Lightning have 4.5 million. The Blue Jackets carry $4.725 million of his $6.75 million. Both clubs could want the Blue Jackets to retain salary or take on a salaried player in the deal. They also lack 2025 first-rounders to offer up as trade bait but the Lightning carry two 2025 second-rounders.
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders: Johnston suggests the Minnesota Wild as a good destination for the 34-year-old center. LeBrun mentions the Dallas Stars as his best guess.
New York Islanders center Brock Nelson (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Nelson’s cap hit is $6 million. The Wild have almost $2.1 million in projected cap space. The Stars have $1.5 million but they’re expected to place sidelined center Tyler Seguin and his $9.85 million AAV on long-term injury reserve (LTIR) and use the savings to make one or two significant additions. They can more easily afford the remainder of Nelson’s daily cap hit by the March 7 deadline.
John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks: LeBrun thinks the 31-year-old goaltender could head to the Carolina Hurricanes. Johnston proposed the Edmonton Oilers.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: LeBrun and Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos and Elliotte Friedman claimed the Hurricanes had trade discussions with the Ducks about Gibson last summer. LeBrun believes both clubs have “re-engaged” about this topic.
The Hurricanes seem a more likely destination for Gibson and his $6.4 million AAV through 2026-27 than the Oilers. Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal doesn’t see him as an upgrade over the current Oilers tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Even if the Oilers took him on at half his cap hit, it would put a significant dent into their long-term cap space when they’ve got Evan Bouchard to re-sign next summer and Connor McDavid in 2026.
Taylor Hall, Chicago Blackhawks: Johnston pitched the Avalanche for the 33-year-old left wing. LeBrun suggested the Utah Hockey Club.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Hall carries an AAV of $6 million for this season. Picking up the remainder of it at the deadline will be a tight squeeze for the Avs, though the asking price could be more affordable than what the Blue Jackets could seek for Provorov. Utah can easily fit him within their $24 million projected trade deadline cap space. They also have three second-rounders in 2026 to use as trade bait.
Rasmus Ristolainen, Philadelphia Flyers: LeBrun sees the 30-year-old blueliner heading to the Winnipeg Jets. Johnston sees the Stars as his eventual destination.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Ristolainen is signed through 2026-27 with an AAV of $5.1 million. The Jets can afford to fit him into their $11.7 million AAV for the trade deadline. They also have plenty of cap room to fit him within their payroll beyond this season. The Stars can afford him if they put Seguin on LTIR but keeping him beyond this season could complicate efforts to re-sign Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston next summer.
What/why is the delay re Seguin on LTIR
Surgery was this month and earliest recovery/return was said to be 4 months(thus minimum absence has him missing rest of regular season).
The outside return is said to be 6 months
So he’s missing the rest of the season for sure and putting him on LTIR earlier gets Stars accumulating more Cap space
Why is he not already on LTIR?
What possible benefit is there to delaying putting him on LTIR?
This is my understanding: Teams do not accrue cap space if they have players on LTIR. So by keeping him on regular IR they can continue to accrue cap space during the season. They can always put him on LTIR at a later point if/when the wanted to tap into additional cap space.
Thanks Foley7
I am not sure, but my understanding is different. That being no accrual of Cap space on IR; and ONLY cap space accrual while on LTIR.
If you are right, then that fully explains it.
However then, why DO teams then use LTIR if IR is the beneficial one?
found this re difference LTIR and IR:
“Injured Reserve frees up a spot on the roster to move in another player. It does not, however, free up any cap space. So the salary of the player on IR still counts toward the salary cap limit. This is more of a temporary designation for a player expected to come back soon. It can also be used for illness.”
“When a player is put on IR, it means that they cannot play for at least 7 days. ”
“There are stricter rules when it comes to LTIR so that teams can’t take advantage of it. When a player is placed on LTIR, they will miss at least 10 games AND 24 days of the NHL season. Those days don’t count days when the league is “off” like the three-day holiday break at Christmas or the All-Star Break.”
for LTIR: “their salary is still counted toward the team’s total cap space, but it allows the team to exceed the salary cap by that same amount.”
So while Seguin is on IR his $9.85 M is counting against the cap as well as any player coming in to replace him.
However if on LTIR, his $9.85 M IS on the Cap but Stars can exceed Cap ceiling by that same $9.85 M.
In other words, Seguin on LTIR and they could bring in a replacement with a Cap hit of up to $9.85 M
Under the IR, Stars current Cap space (per PuckPedia) is less than $580 K (below a League minimum replacement
That’s right that Seguin still counts against the cap while on IR. But as you noted, the Stars are still about $580k under the cap even with Seguin on IR. Therefore, I believe they get to continue accruing cap space each day, so that $580k will grow as each day passes.
If they utilize LTIR, they no longer accrue the daily cap space increment.
(I will say that I dont fully understand the daily accrual formula, but the info above is how I understand it).
This explanation from this article by Pierre LeBrun in The Athletic
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5974445/2024/12/06/stars-trades-tyler-seguin-jim-nill/
“The Stars, by the way, have not yet put Seguin on long-term injured reserve. He is on IR and remains on their active cap for now. Part of that is waiting to hear back from doctors now that Seguin has had his surgery to get another update on his timeline, just to be sure.
“I’m waiting to get that report back,” Nill said. “Let’s get Tyler in rehab. What’s the time frame for him? Is it four months no problem coming back or is it more work there and it’s five or six months? How does the rehab process go? We are early in all this.
“But you don’t want to go into LTI until you have to. We want to maximize that.”
Thanks George
I can’t open the link. I think I would need a subscription to it.
Nil’s explanation from your quote makes sense re not knowing how long he’ll be out.
This: ““But you don’t want to go into LTI until you have to. We want to maximize that.” doesn’t make sense.
How can you maximize LTI if you aren’t using it?
This is from the internet regarding LTIR vs IR:
“Injured Reserve frees up a spot on the roster to move in another player. It does not, however, free up any cap space. So the salary of the player on IR still counts toward the salary cap limit. This is more of a temporary designation for a player expected to come back soon. It can also be used for illness.”
According to PuckPedia, the Stars TD capspace will be $1,502,959 if all stands pat. Which means they have cap space for a player with about a $9M ANNUAL cap hit. So if thy acquire a Larkin at the TDL, they have room for him the rest of the year without putting Seguin on LTIR or having the Wings retaining salary. Just a hypothetical, but I agree that it seems one should acquire the desirable person as soon as one becomes available for reasons of developing team chemistry and getting a higher seed.
While a team receives caps space for LITR designations, the seasonal Cap space teams earn for not using max cap would not accrue. The best move is to wait as long as possible to accumulate the most Trade deadline Cap room and then do the LITR, at least I think that is how it works.
Edmonton Oilers;
They need a 2nd pairing RD to play with Nurse A 2nd pairing LD….
Why do 50% of the hockey writers keep proposing a other LD player….❓
I could see it if they could play LD&RD but most cant….
Brent Kulak could but he has really formend a very good 3rd paring with young Ty Emberson for the Oil…..❓
Sullivan has been throwing out Grzylck on RD at times
Yours for the taking. Gratis!!!
@ 8787..
The Penguins continue to improve..in a playoff spot as of now.
Owen Pickering has been solid and they called up dman Nate Clueman who was solid vs islanders..with Letang out
Penguins again sniffing on John Giibson.
.hometown boy back playing well only two more years by then Blomqvist or musharev will b ready.
He can steal games which Jarry just cant…
Get a strong return for Petersson we will b stronger …
When healthy Letang Pickering Karlsson Desharnais Grzeluyck Clueman…
Stay tuned
When Lindholm comes back I wonder if Boston would package Frederic with one of their defensemen like Carlo,Lohrei,Zadorov ,Peeke to land a top 6 forward?
SR,
I think most of the bottom 12-14 teams would want a 1st pick and top prospect like A
(Fabian Lysell )
to get back A Top a top Scoring LW for the bruins 1st or 2nd LW line if they want to go anywhere in the playoffs…❓
Boston have just under $3.M in Cap space
and a player with a Salary to dump Morgan
Geekie, @$2.M d/man.just to even up the dollars money in money out…❓
Pred’s LW Jonathan Marchessault.
Or
Duck’s LW Frank Vatrano.
Or
Buffalo’s LW Jason Zucker. they may keep him if the keep winning….🤔
Or
NYI … C/LW Brock Nelson
Or
Pen’s LW Michael Bunting
i dont see them moving one of there d/men, they are Set there.
I think they would like to keep Big Trent Frederic as a Big Tough physical 3rd liner for there playoff push…
Would Bruins trade Peeke and 2026 first rounder for Ryan Lindgren . Then trade Frederick and Lysell to Minny for Marco Rossi.Rangerd would have to eat some of Lindfrens salary.But boy would Bruins ever have a great defense.
I think Guerin would smash the hang up button hard enough to shatter his screen if Neely offered that. Boston needs to hold on to the very few things they have in their bare prospect cupboards anyway.
Guerin has said he wants to resign Rossi! The Bruins are in no shape to trade draft picks! Their prospect pool is amongst the worst in the NHL!They have traded picks in the past because they thought they had a chance to win the cup!That ship has already sailed!If they trade for someone they need to have term left! I believe Lindgren is a UFA next year!
Why would the Rangers and Minnesota even consider either deal?
The Wild are already near the top through having strength down the middle thanks, in part, to a very good C in Rossi, while Lindgren is far from NY’s pressing problems.
How does Boston getting rid of disposable, under-producing assets make either the Wild or Rangers better?