With NHL training camps opening on Sept. 16, I’m looking back on my reaction to some of the summer’s biggest stories.

The following is my initial reaction to the Philadelphia Flyers signing Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson to a five-year offer sheet on July 3, with what was then a league-record average annual value of $18 million.

Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson (NHL Images)

The last time any team signed a player to an expensive offer sheet was in the summer of 2012, when the Flyers (!) inked Shea Weber of the Nashville Predators to a 14-year, $110 million offer sheet, which the Predators matched. That contract finally expired at 11:59 PM on June 30.

It’s a bold move by Briere, one that could be costlier than the big bite it will take out of the Flyers’ salary-cap payroll if the Ducks decline to match the offer.

Carlsson has established himself as a first-line center with the potential to become a superstar. However, he hasn’t yet reached the level where he deserves to be the league’s highest-paid player in terms of AAV. That will have a wide-ranging effect on the cost of signing every comparable young NHL player, including those of the Flyers going forward (hello there, Matvei Michkov, if he has a significant bounce-back performance this season). 

Another factor is the possibility that Carlsson struggles to adjust to a new club in one of the NHL’s bigger markets under a much harsher spotlight than he’s faced in Anaheim. He’ll definitely feel the pressure to meet the expectations that come with that massive annual cap hit.

If Carlsson adjusts quickly and meets those expectations, this signing could be remembered as the moment when the Flyers became a powerhouse. If he falters, it will be seen as the beginning of the end of Briere’s tenure as general manager.

For the Ducks, some folks believe this is karma biting Verbeek for his years of playing hardball with restricted free agents such as Drysdale, Zegras, and Mason McTavish, all of whom no longer play for the Ducks. They feel Verbeek could’ve avoided this had he signed Carlsson to a lucrative new contract on July 1 instead of trying to play the waiting game.

The Ducks are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Most observers expect they’ll swallow hard and match the Flyers’ offer. Doing so will definitely screw up their salary cap for this season and complicate efforts to re-sign Gauthier and Mintyukov, especially if the latter signs an offer sheet. Letting Mintyukov go will weaken their already thin blueline for this season.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: On July 9, the Ducks matched the Flyers’ offer sheet for Carlsson. 

Most observers expected Anaheim to match the offer. Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek is publicly pleased to retain Carlsson, but his lack of foresight in this situation has significant salary-cap consequences for his club.

Keeping Carlsson screws up the Ducks’ salary cap for this season, leaving little space to re-sign high-scoring winger Cutter Gauthier and to bolster their young blueline. It will also affect their cap plans throughout Carlsson’s contract, potentially hampering their development as a future Stanley Cup contender.

However, not matching the offer would’ve cost them their first-line center, setting them back for a few years as they tried to find a suitable replacement.

Some observers suggested using the four compensatory first-round picks they would’ve received from the Flyers as trade bait to address that issue. That’s much easier said than done, and anyone they find might not adequately replace Carlsson.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: On July 30, I looked at the long-term impact the Carlsson offer sheet would have on future contracts for NHL stars.

The ripples from the Flyers’ bid to land Carlsson will be felt for years. It couldn’t have happened without the substantial increases in the salary cap.

It could also create a situation in which the NHL once again finds itself with “have” and “have-not” franchises, something the salary cap was supposed to address over 20 years ago. Teams in smaller markets could find it difficult to reach the annual salary cap minimum, losing players through free agency or cost-cutting trades to wealthier markets flush with cap space. 

The NHL has a better revenue-sharing system in place to help small-market or struggling franchises than it did over 20 years ago. Nevertheless, it might not be enough to help some of them remain competitive against richer, well-managed teams.