NHL Rumor Mill – August 14, 2024

by | Aug 14, 2024

NHL Rumor Mill – August 14, 2024

What are the Oilers’ options regarding the offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway? How could those offer sheets affect other clubs with still-unsigned restricted free agents? Find out in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.

SPORTSNET: Mark Spector looked at the options facing the Edmonton Oilers after Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway signed offer sheets with the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday.

Broberg’s is a two-year contract with an average annual value of $4,580,917 while Holloway’s is two years with an AAV of $2,290,457. The Oilers have seven days from the date those offers were signed to match them.

The Oilers could afford to walk away as neither player constitutes the difference between winning or losing the Stanley Cup. However, both are former first-round picks on a club with an already thin prospect pipeline.

Edmonton Oilers forward Dylan Holloway (NHL Images).

They could opt to retain one or the other. Holloway’s is the most affordable but it would sting to let the promising Broberg let go for peanuts.

Of the two, Spector thinks the Oilers will retain Holloway. He believes it risky to sign Broberg when he might not play up to his cap hit, especially when they’ve got Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard to sign before next summer. He suggests using the second-round pick received from the Blues as trade bait to replace Broberg.

Holloway’s deal is cheaper plus the Oilers could use his speed after adding or retaining veterans like Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Corey Perry and Adam Henrique.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Oilers can’t afford to match both offers without shedding significant salary. It’s unlikely they’ll let both players walk. Holloway’s offer seems more likely to be matched given its affordability to Broberg’s. The latter’s departure will further weaken the Oilers’ blueline, forcing them into the trade or free-agent markets for an affordable short-term replacement.

BOSTON HOCKEY NOW: Andrew Fantucchio doesn’t anticipate the Blues’ attempt to sign away Broberg and Holloway from the Oilers will inspire other clubs to try and sign Jeremy Swayman.

The restricted free-agent goaltender is expected to sign a multiyear deal with the Bruins between $7.75 million and $10 million based on comparable players. It’ll likely be close to $8.6 million, which the Bruins have in cap space.

NEW JERSEY HOCKEY NOW: James Nichols looked at what an offer sheet for Devils RFA forward Dawson Mercer would look like. Citing AFP Analytics, a two-year offer sheet would be close to $4 million annually. A six-year offer would have an AAV of around $6.5 million.

THE HOCKEY NEWS: Connor Earegood speculates the Blues’ attempt to sign Broberg and Holloway could speed up the Detroit Red Wings’ signings of defenseman Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond.

Meanwhile, Carter Brooks wondered what effect those offer sheets might have on the Winnipeg Jets’ efforts to sign RFA center Cole Perfetti.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s understandable why fans of those clubs watching this situation play out might be worried that those players could also become offer sheet targets. However, that’s unlikely to happen because the Bruins, Devils, Red Wings, and Jets have more cap flexibility to match any offer sheet.

The Oilers face more difficulty matching those offer sheets. They were vulnerable because they were already over the $88 million salary cap.

SAN JOSE HOCKEY NOW: Sheng Peng wondered if the Sharks could use the Oilers’ situation to their advantage. If the Oilers attempt to shed salary via trade, Peng suggests the Sharks try to prize away a defenseman like Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak along with a draft pick.

MONTREAL HOCKEY NOW: Marc Dumont suggests the Canadiens use their cap space to their advantage by acquiring Ceci or another player and a draft pick or landing a draft pick by becoming a third-party broker for the Oilers.










NHL Rumor Mill – July 31, 2024

by | Jul 31, 2024

NHL Rumor Mill – July 31, 2024

A look at the remaining notable restricted free agents in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.

SPORTSNET: Luke Fox and Rory Boylen updated their list of the notable remaining restricted free agents following the signings of Carolina Hurricanes winger Martin Necas on Monday and New York Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren on Tuesday.

Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman still tops the list. He’s coming off a one-year, $3.45 million contract.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Nothing new to report on his contract negotiations. Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis cited AFP Analytics projecting the 25-year-old goaltender is in line for a five-year contract with an average annual value of $6.433 million. However, some recent media speculation suggests he could get around $9 million annually depending on the length of the deal.

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider and winger Lucas Raymond sit second and third on their list. They speculate Seider could get an AAV of $8.6 million on a long-term deal but Raymond could get a mid-term commitment akin to teammate Alex DeBrincat’s four-year contract.

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (NHL Images).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s been over a month since Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman said he’d get Seider and Raymond signed “in due time.” There’s been nothing new since then but plenty of time remains to get both players under contract before the start of training camp in mid-September. AFP Analytics projects Seider getting a seven-year deal with an AAV of $8.125 million and Raymond seven years at $7.758 million annually.

Seth Jarvis is the focus for Carolina Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky now that Martin Necas is under contract. The versatile 22-year-old forward can play center or wing and has risen among the Hurricanes’ core players. He’s coming off an entry-level contract and there’s speculation he could get an eight-year deal worth around $8 million annually.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projects a seven-year deal worth $7.75 million annually for Jarvis. Unless Tulsky makes a cost-cutting move, the Jarvis camp will have to accept much less than that because the Hurricanes only have $6.44 million in cap space.

Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill could attempt to sign defenseman Thomas Harley to a bridge contract. That’s what he did with Jason Robertson when the winger came off his entry-level contract.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Harley is projected to get a seven-year deal with an AAV of $6.922 million. However, the Stars have $6.243 million in cap space. The 22-year-old blueliner could end up with a short-term contract worth under $5 million annually.

Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers’ sophomore slump compromises his bargaining position coming off his entry-level contract. The betting is the 21-year-old center gets a bridge deal.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projects a seven-year deal worth $6.66 million annually. The Kraken have the hammer here so it could be much shorter and for around $5 million annually.

Winnipeg Jets center Cole Perfetti seems a classic case for a bridge deal after a healthy but inconsistent 2023-24 performance under former head coach Rick Bowness. However, the Winnipeg Sun’s Scott Billeck recently reported positive communication between the Perfetti camp and new Jets bench boss Scott Arniel. That could sway Perfetti into signing a long-term deal.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The projection has Perfetti in line for a seven-year deal with an AAV of $5.584 million. That could become a real bargain for the Jets if he blossoms into the scorer he was projected to become when the Jets drafted him in 2020.

The New Jersey Devils could go the bridge route with Dawson Mercer. Comparables include Ottawa’s Shane Pinto (two-year, $3.75 million AAV) and Columbus’ Kirill Marchenko (three years, $3.85 million AAV).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: AFP Analytics projected a six-year deal at $6.52 million annually. However, the Devils only have $4.9 million in cap space. Mercer will likely get a bridge deal unless the Devils shed some salary.

Cole Sillinger enjoyed a bounce-back performance from his 2022-23 sophomore slump with 13 goals and 32 points in 77 games. Like teammate Kirill Marchenko, he could get a three-year deal.










NHL Morning Coffee Headlines – July 24, 2024

by | Jul 24, 2024

NHL Morning Coffee Headlines – July 24, 2024

The latest on the Flyers’ Sean Couturier, the Penguins’ Kevin Hayes, and the Jets’ Cole Perfetti, some arbitration dates are revealed, and more in today’s NHL Morning Coffee Headlines.

THE HOCKEY NEWS: Philadelphia Flyers captain Sean Couturier faces a make-or-break season. The 31-year-old Flyers captain played a full season in 2023-24 after missing a season and a half to back surgery but struggled to regain his form, finishing with 38 points in 74 games. Couturier was also a healthy scratch late in the season.

Philadelphia Flyers center Sean Couturier (NHL Images).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It can sometimes take a full season for a player to bounce back from a serious surgery. Couturier could return to his Selke Trophy form this season and silence the concerns about his future. His contract is partly behind those worries, entering the third season of an eight-year deal with an average annual value of $7.75 million.

PITTSBURGH HOCKEY NOW: Penguins forward Kevin Hayes intends to use his trade from the St. Louis Blues as motivation while he awaits his role with his new club. Hayes, 32, said he didn’t really find a role with the Blues, making it difficult to play his best hockey.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Penguins acquired Hayes to replace the aging Jeff Carter as their third-line center, which was greeted with criticism citing Hayes’ age and struggles last season with the Blues. How well he adjusts will contribute to the outcome of the Penguins’ season.

WINNIPEG SUN: Cole Perfetti’s role this season with the Jets could determine the length of his next contract. The 22-year-old restricted free-agent forward is believed to have talked with new head coach Scott Arniel regarding his role with the team, which could sway whether he signs a long-term deal. Perfetti could see top-six minutes and power-play time under Arniel.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Former Jets head coach Rick Bowness seemed to lose confidence in Perfetti last season. He could break out this season with a more robust role under Arniel.

PUCKPEDIA: released the salary arbitration dates for Buffalo Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (July 29), Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko (July 31), New York Islanders forward Oliver Wahlstrom (Aug. 1) and Carolina Hurricanes winger Martin Necas (Aug. 4).

New York Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren also has an upcoming arbitration hearing date.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Athletic’s Arthur Staple recently reported Lindgren’s hearing is scheduled for Aug. 2.

TORONTO SUN: The Maple Leafs avoided arbitration with forward Connor Dewar as the two sides agreed to a one-year, $1.18 million contract.

BUFFALO HOCKEY NOW: The Buffalo Sabres won’t be facing Beck Malenstyn in arbitration, signing the 26-year-old winger to a two-year contract with an average annual value of $1.35 million.

NHL.COM: The Utah Hockey Club signed Cole Beaudoin to a three-year entry-level contract. Beaudoin, 18, was selected 24th overall by Utah in the 2024 NHL Draft.

TSN: Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas and Tampa Bay Lightning GM Julien BriseBois were named to Canada’s management team for the 4 Nations Face-Off in February and the 2026 Men’s Olympic hockey team.

THE ATHLETIC: A tax ruling involving Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares could make it difficult for Canadian NHL teams to sign free agents.

The report indicates a key reason behind Tavares’ signing with the Leafs was the belief a provision in the Canada-US Tax Treaty commonly used by professional athletes would allow him to pay lower taxes on his initial $15 million signing bonus.

However, the Canada Revenue Agency claims he owes over $6.8 million (plus another $1.2 million in interest) on that signing bonus. Tavares is disputing the CRA’s assessment, the outcome of which could have a far-reaching effect on Canadian teams trying to lure players north of the border.

This stems from where Tavares’ principal residence was in 2018. He was a US tax resident that year. However, a person is considered a resident of Canada for tax purposes if they spend 183 days in the country.

The issue centers on whether Tavares’s bonus with the Leafs that year was employment income or an inducement to sign the contract. If the CRA is successful, it will reframe how the provision of bonuses is applied.

The CRA is also scrutinizing the use of Retirement Compensation Agreements (RCAs) by Canadian teams to reduce the tax burden on non-resident players.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I’ve shortened this to provide the main highlights. If you have a subscription to The Athletic, I recommend reading the piece for the full details. This case could take a couple of years before a decision is reached.

Higher taxes are one reason why Canadian teams have had difficulty signing top free-agent talent. A ruling against Tavares will mean those clubs must pay more to entice free agents to sign with them. It will also mean they must pay more to retain their best players.

Canadian teams will likely turn to the NHL to address this situation If this becomes a significant impediment for them. They’re unlikely to go to the Canadian government. An attempt to find a federal and provincial solution to help those clubs dealing with a historically low Canadian dollar in 1999 didn’t poll well with Canadians. It was abandoned following disagreements between the provinces and the federal government over the breakdown of the funding.

That forced the NHL to implement a revenue-sharing scheme for Canadian teams which stayed in place until the 2005 CBA was implemented.










NHL Rumor Mill – July 20, 2024

by | Jul 20, 2024

NHL Rumor Mill – July 20, 2024

Check out the latest on some of this summer’s notable restricted free agents in today’s NHL Rumor Mill

SPORTSNET: Luke Fox and Rory Boylen recently looked at where things stand with 12 of this summer’s notable remaining restricted free agents. Here are some of the more notable ones:

Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman didn’t file for salary arbitration. Some observers wonder why the Bruins didn’t already have a “hush-hush handshake deal” with the Swayman camp in place before trading Linus Ullmark to Ottawa last month.

Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (NHL Images).

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Bruins have over $8.6 million in cap space for 2024-25 with the 25-year-old Swayman the only active roster playing to be signed. He’s two years away from UFA eligibility.

Swayman will get signed, it’s just a question of for how long and how much. The two sides could agree to a long-term contract or a two-year deal. The average annual value could be between $6.5 million and $7.5 million.

The Carolina Hurricanes hold the hammer in contract talks with Seth Jarvis. The 22-year-old winger is coming off his entry-level contract and lacks arbitration rights.

General manager Eric Tulsky could go for a short-term bridge deal or attempt to lock up Jarvis to an eight-year deal. His camp could seek a long-term deal worth over 8.35 million annually.

Tulsky isn’t worried about someone signing Jarvis to an offer sheet, pointing out they have the cap space to match.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Terminating Evgeny Kuznetsov’s contract gives the Hurricanes $13.9 million in cap space. That’s more than enough to match an offer sheet for Jarvis.

Speaking of the Hurricanes, Martin Necas has been the subject of trade speculation since their playoff elimination in May. The New Jersey Devils, Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets and Calgary Flames were believed to be monitoring the 25-year-old winger’s situation.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Fox and Boylen considered Necas most likely to be traded when this list was published on July 17. Since then, GM Tulsky said he’s not closing the door on a potential deal but it’s looking more likely Necas will remain with the Hurricanes.

Tulsky pointed out that teams have a lot less flexibility than they did a month ago, making it harder to do deals in the trade market. In other words, the clubs interested in Necas lack sufficient cap space to acquire him.

Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti had an inconsistent 2023-24 performance but still finished fifth among their leading scorers. The departures of Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan could lead to a fresh start for the 22-year-old forward under new head coach Scott Arniel.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press observed the Jets tend to sign players like Perfetti to bridge contracts. However, there is precedence for a long-term deal, citing Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers.

In that case, his camp could seek an average annual value between the $5 million AAV that Anton Lundell received from the Florida Panthers and the $6.25 million the Los Angeles Kings are paying Quinton Byfield.

Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko filed for arbitration on July 5. With Patrik Laine facing a doubtful future in Columbus, the 23-year-old Marchenko could get a nice raise.

The Rangers and Ryan Lindgren remain in contract negotiations despite the latter filing for arbitration. A one-year deal for the 25-year-old defenseman could cost $3.6 million. A longer deal will cost more due to the cost of his UFA years.










NHL Rumor Mill – July 10, 2024

by | Jul 10, 2024

NHL Rumor Mill – July 10, 2024

Check out the ongoing speculation that the Panthers might trade Aaron Ekblad, an update on Jacob Trouba, and nine possible offer-sheet candidates in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.

LATEST ON EKBLAD AND TROUBA

TSN: Jay Onrait spoke with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan on Tuesday regarding speculation the Florida Panthers could trade Aaron Ekblad to free up some salary-cap space.

Kaplan said it will be difficult for the Panthers to maintain their roster despite being a destination franchise. Nevertheless, their front office isn’t afraid to make hard decisions. She can’t confirm that Ekblad’s on the trade block but wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers explored that possibility.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Ekblad trade rumors stretch back to June 2 when the Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons speculated they could move him to free up cap room to re-sign Brandon Montour, who has since signed with the Seattle Kraken.

Ekblad has a year remaining on his contract with a cap hit of $7.5 million and a 12-team no-trade list for 2024-25.

New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (NHL Images).

The Panthers are above the $88 million cap by over $933K. They can easily become cap-compliant before their season opener in October by demoting a lower-salaried player rather than moving a high-salaried core player like Ekblad. Montour’s departure could make the Panthers less likely to move him if they intend on staging a successful defense of their Stanley Cup title.

Onrait and Kaplan also discussed the recent trade rumors swirling around New York Rangers captain Jacob Trouba. The Rangers reportedly had a deal on the table with the Detroit Red Wings. However, the 30-year-old defenseman didn’t want to do it with his wife still finishing her residency as a medical doctor.

Kaplan believes Trouba will be in the Rangers lineup when they start the season in October even though it was a really uncomfortable process over the last days and weeks. She noted Trouba used his no-trade protection in his contract to nix the deal with the Red Wings.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Rangers general manager Chris Drury attempted an aggressive move to trade Trouba in the week leading up to the start of free agency. He hoped to shed most of his captain’s $8 million cap hit to Detroit to free up room for a foray or two into the UFA market.

Trouba used his no-trade protection to reject the deal as was his contractual right. He now has a 15-team no-trade list. Drury could peddle him to any club not on that list but it’s pointless to do so at this stage with all the top free-agent talent now gone from the market. Trouba isn’t moving unless Drury finds a return that improves the Rangers right away.

POSSIBLE OFFER SHEET CANDIDATES

SPORTSNET: Emily Sadler looked at nine restricted free agents who could become offer sheet targets this summer. She acknowledged the rarity of offer sheets, noting the last one occurred in 2021 when the Carolina Hurricanes successfully signed away Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens.

The longer Jeremy Swayman goes without a new contract with the Boston Bruins sows another small seed of doubt about this deal and how soon it’ll get done.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Someone could pitch an offer sheet to Swayman but that depends on his willingness to sign one. The same goes for every restricted free agent. It’s pointless to attempt if they’re not interested.

Swayman knows he’s got the Bruins’ starting goalie sewn up. He loves being a Bruins and playing in Boston. He also opted not to go to arbitration when he had the chance. That should tell us all we need to know about his interest in an offer sheet.

His negotiations could take time but that’s common. Most RFA contract talks can take most of the summer before a resolution is reached. It’s doubtful there’s any real concern here.

The Canadiens could make a “revenge play” against the Hurricanes by targeting Seth Jarvis.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Canadiens could make that move if Marc Bergevin was still their general manager. His attempt at signing Sebastian Aho in 2019 prompted the retaliatory Kotkaniemi signing two years later. The current Habs management probably isn’t interested in going down that road.

Swimming in cap space, the Detroit Red Wings can match any offer for Moritz Seider and/or Lucas Raymond. Whether someone attempts to set the market for them is the bigger question.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s doubtful that any club will attempt it. That move will only succeed in pissing off every general manager around the league for setting the market value for comparable players.

A rival club could attempt to squeeze the cap-strapped Edmonton Oilers by pitching an offer sheet to Dylan Holloway or Philip Broberg.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Possible but unlikely. Holloway and Broberg are in the early stages of their NHL careers. They might not pan out as hoped.

Sadler also suggested Quinton Byfield of the Los Angeles Kings, Cole Perfetti of the Winnipeg Jets and Dawson Mercer of the New Jersey Devils. An offer sheet to any one of them could mess up their team’s plans to sign them to an affordable bridge contract.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Another possibility but only if the player is willing to entertain offer-sheet proposals. Those three might not be interested in such deals.










Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup – May 12, 2024

by | May 12, 2024

Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup – May 12, 2024

A look at three possible offer-sheet candidates plus the latest on the Kraken’s search for a new head coach in the Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup.

COULD PERFETTI, LUNDELL, OR SWAYMAN BECOME OFFER-SHEET TARGETS?

THE SCORE: John Matisz recently looked at three possible offer-sheet targets this summer.

One is Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti. He’s completing his entry-level contract and was a frequent healthy scratch near the end of the regular season and in four playoff games. He might get a clean slate now that Rick Bowness has retired as head coach.

However, the Jets only have $13 million in cap space for next season. A rival general manager could try to make life miserable for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff by pitching a bridge deal with an average annual value of $5.5 million.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Matisz acknowledged the rarity of offer sheets in the salary cap era. The last one occurred in 2021 when the Carolina Hurricanes successfully signed away Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens. Considering how that’s turned out for the Hurricanes, it’s a prime example of why an offer sheet can be a risky move.

Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (NHL Images).

A player has to be willing to sign an offer sheet. Perfetti and the other two on this list could receive offers from rival clubs but they’re meaningless if those players prefer signing with their current teams.

The Jets’ limited cap space could make Perfetti a tempting target but I don’t see anyone making a pitch. While the 22-year-old has potential as a scoring forward, his inconsistent production thus far doesn’t make him an enticing candidate.

Florida Panthers forward Anton Lundell is another possibility given his untapped potential. The Panthers have 11 players slated to become unrestricted free agents this summer, including Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour. Matisz suggested a similar pitch for Lundell as he did for Perfetti.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Given his solid two-way play and offensive ability, Lundell is a more attractive offer-sheet target than Perfetti. The Panthers would be more vulnerable cap-wise than the Jets. While there’s a greater possibility of Lundell getting an offer sheet, it’s unlikely he’ll get one. I believe he’d prefer to stick with the Panthers.

Matisz mentioned Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman, suggesting perhaps he’d entertain a “Godfather offer” like a yearly salary 50 percent greater than his actual market value.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Matisz admits it’s a wild scenario. He also acknowledged Swayman’s value to the Bruins and he’ll likely be their starter for the next several years. Anything’s possible but it’s the least likely of these three.

LATEST ON THE KRAKEN’S SEARCH FOR A NEW COACH

THE SEATTLE TIMES: Geoff Baker recently reported Kraken GM Ron Francis isn’t wasting time interviewing potential candidates for his club’s vacant head coach position. He met with former Los Angeles Kings bench boss Todd McLellan earlier this month.

Baker speculates Francis could also be waiting until the end of the playoffs when he might have an opportunity to pursue Carolina Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour. There’s speculation the Hurricanes could part with him if they fail to advance past the second round. While a recent report claimed management pulled its contract offer from the table, both sides subsequently claimed talks were back on with each believing a deal could be done.

One rumor making the rounds claimed Brind’Amour was resentful of Francis for not promoting him to head coach during the latter’s tenure as Hurricanes GM. That was based on a Feb. 2023 interview with the “Spittin’ Chiclets” podcast, but Brind’Amour never said anything negative about Francis. Brind’Amour gave Francis a glowing recommendation to Seattle executives in 2019 that likely sealed their decision to hire him as GM.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: Baker noted that Francis is still interviewing coaching candidates. He could be keeping an eye on Brind’Amour but there’s no certainty he’ll be available. If the Hurricanes do let him go, Francis will have plenty of competition trying to hire him.