NHL Rumor Mill – July 22, 2020
The latest Lightning and Jets speculation in today’s NHL rumor mill.
THE ATHLETIC (subscription required): In a recent mailbag segment, Joe Smith was asked several questions about how the Tampa Bay Lightning could address their salary-cap crunch for next season.
Smith feels many teams, including the Buffalo Sabres and Minnesota Wild, would be interested in center Anthony Cirelli. He also believes there will be plenty of interest in young defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. Both are restricted free agents at season’s end.
Smith suggests the asking price for either player could be at least a strong prospect and one or more high picks. Asked if the Bolts could get a player in return like Wild defenseman Matt Dumba for Cirelli, he doesn’t see how that player’s contract ($6 million annual average value) would fit within their limited cap space.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Cirelli or Sergachev could be shopped if Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois feels he can’t afford to keep both players. However, I believe his priority is to re-sign them and move out one or two other players to free up sufficient cap room for their new contracts.
Both are coming off entry-level contracts and lack arbitration rights. BriseBois could use that leverage to sign both to affordable short-term contracts, but one of them could sign an offer sheet with another club.
Smith feels Alex Killorn is the most likely to be shopped in the off-season. His value is high, he’s got only a few years left on his contract with an affordable $4.5 million AAV, and his limited no-trade clause provides some flexibility.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Moving Killorn will help but the Bolts could be forced to shed another salary. Speculation suggests Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, or Yanni Gourde, but they carry full no-movement clauses. Smith suggested they could deal away one of the RFAs. He felt contract buyouts would be the last resort.
Asked about what the Lightning’s threshold would be if Sergachev signed an offer sheet, Smith feels $7 million is their cutoff.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Many clubs lack sufficient cap space to go the offer-sheet route this summer, but some have the cap space to make that pitch. However, that depends on Sergachev’s willingness to sign one. He could stick with the Lightning on a short-term bridge deal with the promise of greater riches down the road. The same goes for Cirelli.
SPORTSNET: In a recent mailbag segment, Ken Wiebe was asked if there was any word on the Winnipeg Jets re-signing Dylan DeMelo. The Jets acquired the 27-year-old defenseman in February. He’s due to become an unrestricted free agent in the off-season.
Re-signing DeMelo is likely a priority for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. Despite the flat salary cap, he’s got more short-term flexibility to make a move or two this summer. While DeMelo could seek long-term stability, Wiebe speculates he might take a short-term deal in hope league economics improve in a few years.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Wiebe reported DeMelo indicated there hasn’t been much conversation regarding a new contract, but he feels he’s fit in well with the Jets and would welcome a chance to re-sign.
Most contract talks are on hold for now as teams prepare for the upcoming playoff tournament. If Cheveldayoff is interested in re-signing DeMelo, and I think he could be, those discussions will likely begin once the playoffs are over.
DeMelo’s earned $900K annually on his current contract and will be seeking a significant raise. Provided his asking price is reasonable – around $3 million annually – he could remain with the Jets.
Gourde would be my target to move or to acquire . Send to Ottawa for some of those picks or pick and prospect. He would have to waive his nm but might with the proper response to the situation. He also might not want to play in a State with 9400 Covid cases a day !
No way cash-conscious Ottawa (or any team really) pays to acquire Gourde. 28 years old with an AAV over $5mill for 30 points in 70 games….nope.
Killorn could be a good 2C pickup for a couple teams if he would go. But the reason TB players all seem to have NMC’s is because the no state tax in Florida. Agreeing to a trade is essentially agreeing to give away 20% of your salary for no reason (other than your mention of escaping COVID)
To Sergachev; would be interesting to see MTL offer sheet him (per Rattus) and try to bring him back after trading him for Drouin. A 1, 2, & 3 round pick along with a slightly inflated salary is steep though.
I wish folks would lose this idea of players moving HOME. It’s only where they grew up.
Vincois, home isn’t just where you grew up. It could also be where you spend your off season. It’s probably where most of your family still lives. For older players, that could be incentive. As far as covid, hot spots now were safe places a couple months ago and vice versa. Pandemics don’t last forever, and by the time the next season starts, there’s a good chance there’s already a vaccine. Besides that, Florida’s a big state. The worst hit spots are in South Florida.
Why would he waive to go to a rebuilding team when his best legit chances of winning are where he’s at? He’s going to get paid regardless.
Bolts are not going to sell off their youth. Cirelli/Sergachev. Killorn, Johnson & Pilat will go 1st.
Vincois, I don’t think he would waive. I’m just saying home is a thing. If you read my comment, I think Tampa is screwed with commitments they’ve made. I would agree that they shouldn’t trade their young players, but look what they did at deadline. As mentioned, Killorn is only player having a significant salary with limited ntc. Pointe and Kucherov lack ntc’s. So, assuming nobody waives, Killorn has to go. Even then, you still have to get both Sergachev and Cirelli to pull a Lebanc. Agree to a cheap deal and pray for next year. I agree somebody can offer sheet Sergachev. To me, Detroit has the space and would be perfect fit for a rebuilding team. Perhaps a deal can be worked out since Stevie Y and Brisbois have a working relationship already.
$8 million (or sl less) x 5 years for Sergachev.
Cost: a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd.
Well, a 1st is where he was picked, so straight up value there.
A 3rd is probably not going to play in the NHL anyway.
So a 2nd is the real cost, aside from salary.
I would argue that this covers development costs and the risk that he could have been a bust.
For me this is a no-brainer.
For a team that can afford it and definitely has a top pairing LD need – allo Montréal – there is little risk involved aside from residual TB enmity.
Rather than an offer sheet what about a trade for Sergache???
Offer of Romanov, Poehling, the Habs & Hawks 2nd rders & the Ducks 4th rder???
Sorry about the repost, I got trigger happy!!!!
I wish too Rattis. However, Tampa’s cap crunch is softened by a way better tax rate than Montreal’s.
Dare to dream …
So does AZ pick ideally around 10, Isles 2and in ’21 beat out a Mtl OS? My devs need LHD as much as Habs. I thought this pkg was better due to draft class in ’20
Tampa is a mess. They’re definitely in a win now window. They traded away 2 first round picks and 2 prospects in 2 different deadline deals. For Coleman and Goodrow? Neither of which are worth a 1st imo. Both can play center, so what is future for Cirelli? Until I see Tampa start playing, idk who is playing where. Gourde is from Quebec, so he might be willing to waive to go to Ottawa. But do Sens want him? 5 years left at over 5m per. I think Tampa can get both Cirelli and Sergachev on bridge deals. Can they get McDonaugh to waive? With deadline additions, could they look to move Pointe? He’s one of players with no trade protections.
Rather than an offer sheet what about a trade for Sergache???
Offer of Romanov, Poehling, the Habs & Hawks 2nd rders & the Ducks 4th rder???
As with any year, I’m sure there will be plenty of “offer” sheets (verbally).
These “offers” happen every year but none are formally reported on until they are actually signed (both team and player)… and those signed offer sheets are very rare.
I believe that MacKenzie said that he estimated that 10 to 15 “negotiations” / “verbal offer sheets” happen every year; and of course almost all fail past that stage
I have full confidence that GMMB will at least put out the call to Serg’s agent and do exploratory offers
$7M or more and Bolts just can’t match….. but Serg is unlikely to sign off on that
Per Gavin Group… $7 M in Mon has take home of $3.3 M; and $5.17 M in FLA ( Bolts) also has a take home of $3.3M
Serg could stay on a team he is familiar with; a team ranked top 3 or 4 in league; a top 2 fav for cup this year… by signing bridge 2 @ $5 M (with some sort of assurances of big payday in two years) and only be down a take home of about $115 K each of two years (vs Mon gross of $7 M) …. and he will more than make that up when contract after bridge is likely in the $8M range (closing in on $5.1 M take home in FLA)
It will be very tough (read nigh impossible) to get any of the Bolts with NTCs, to waive them (great team; too level team; nice city and amenities; great weather; huge tax advantages)
Of those lacking NTC….Bolts will not be moving Kuch; Stammer, Hed ; Vasy; or Point
setting aside the NTCs…. Bolts are left with as the top 3 next Cap hits …..only:
Coleman $1.8 M
Paquette $1.65M
Of those with NTCs (per Cap Freindly)
Gourde …. full NTC
Johnson ….. full NTC
Coburn … full NTC
Palat… $5.3M ; 20 teams he CAN be traded to
McD …..$6.8 M; 12 team no trade list….so 18 he can go to
Killorn ….. $4.5 M;16 team no trade list …. so 14 he can go to
Bolts in a pickle
If they do re-up Serg; and if Foote is ready; could they move McD ; re-sign Shatts ar reasonable; and go with
Hed; Serg; Coburn; Shatts; Cernak; Rutta; Foote ?
Tampa (& a few others) definitely get a huge benefit in being able to sell players on ‘take home dollars’ over other (especially Canadian) teams. Does have them overloaded with NTC and NMC’s though, because no one wants to take a team-friendly deal based on take-home pay only to get traded to a team where that no longer applies.
I can definitely see Serg and most free agents taking some bridge deals. Pre-covid, it was expected that the new TV deal was going to drive revenue way up and this was being used to sell guys on short, cheaper deals with the chance for a payday when the cap ballooned. Essentially the same thing now pushed back a couple years; take a 2-3 year contract for decent money in hopes the cap recovers and you can get a huge contract afterward. Always a gamble by the player (stay at least as good, no injuries, etc.) worth it when it works.
Pengy, I think you need to look again at CapFriendly. McD and Palat both have full ntc. This off season
Hi Slick62
Thanks and good catch
Was reading the CF details w/o noticing when they kick in
Weak eyes weak mind 😢😮
Palat’s 20 teams he can be traded to starts next year not this year
and McD’s 18 available teams (to trade to) doesn’t start for 5 years
Bolts worse off than I thought
Offer sheet for Cerelli ?
W/O a move I just can’t see them keeping both Serg and Cerelli ; and I’d think Serg is their higher order of priority
$5M to sign 8 positions ; with RFAs Serg; Cerelli; Cernak; Verhaege ?????
Serg alone ; even with some extra smooth talking and somehow fooling him to take $4M…. that’s $1 M for 7 positions ….😡🤬😂
Move Kilorn…. back to 8 positions to fill …. with $5.5 M….. 8 positions at league minimum cost more than that
Tums and Pepto Bismarck sales in TBay must be going through the roof
I’m not sure they would trade Romanov; he looks like a stud equal to or great than Serachev. Maybe 2021 1st, Struble/Mete/Norlander, Poehling, and a 2nd? If I’m the Bolts (not the Habs), I ask for Romanov. If they were comfortable to make a trade without receiving Romanov, I would ask for Stuble AND Mete, Poehling, a first in ’21 and a 2nd in 20 or 21. Mete fills the gap cheaply, Poehling would probably make a solid bottom 6 next season and Struble appears to be a 2nd pairing dman in the making. The picks just add to that.
I look at a team like San Jose over the next five years, with all those big money, long term contracts with NTC or NMC.
At least the Bolts are still a serious contender, the Sharks are far from it & look hooped for some time to come.
As much as the Habs fan base craps on Beregvin for not spending to the cap, I feel he is being reasonably prudent.
Byron was an over reach, but otherwise he has made too many moves contract wise recently.
Paul Byron is a fine hockey player. A little on the slight side, but he could play for me anyday.
Criminally underrated puck distribution skills.
Uwey, Id say Tampa has just as many, if not more, over priced Veterans. As far as contenders, SJ was in conference finals last year while Tampa went out in 1st round. A lot of injuries and horrible goaltending lead to a bad year, but. Last time they missed playoffs, they bounced back and went to finals the following season. Who knows who is a contender. One year you have an expansion team in the finals, the next you have a team dead last in January, go on and win the cup.
Slick, I was basing my opinion on the age of the players as well, who are signed through the 24/25 season & beyond.
For the next five years, Tampa has five players ages as of this season, 25, 27, 28, 29 & 31. Total cap hit per season $38.8 mill.
While San Jose has five players with ages as of this season, 28, 30, 31, 33 & 35. Total cap hit per season $41.5 mill. Three of them are D-men who will be 35, 38 & 40, Yikes!!!!
So the Sharks will have 4 players 35 yrs old or older in 24/25, as opposed to the Bolts who only have 1 player, who will be 36 yrs old.
Three of the Bolts are Kucherov (27), Hedman (29) & Vasilevskiy (25). That is their #1 Forward, #1 D-man & #1 Goaltender, all in their group of five with none of them turning 35 by the 24/25 season.
Uwey, I guess we can talk about SJ and Bolts in another 3 years. I’m pretty much looking at this off-season. Next year teams will have a chance to maybe unload a contract on Seattle. Ntc’s change. Looking at Burns contract, it’s heavily front loaded. If Tampa can’t get anyone to waive their ntc, I think they need to decide between keeping Cirelli or Pointe. Let’s see how playoffs go. Again, I’m shocked at their deadline deals. The salary isn’t a big deal, but they’re overloaded at center. I’ll take Pointe straight up for DeAngelo! Tampa can then maybe get both DeAngelo and Sergachev on 1 year deals. Leave McDonaugh unprotected next year.
DeAngelo for Point?
Tampa laughs and hangs up the phone, then blocks the number so they never have to hear anything so ridiculous again.
Sabres are in a play-off or bust mode for next season. Pointe is unprotected by a no-move clause would the #8 pick in this year’s draft and a D prospect like Johnson or Borgen make a deal.
G-Man, Buffalo is in a good position to build their roster with only 10 players under contract for next season. I wouldn’t give up 8th pick though. Mittelstadt , Montour , this years 2nd rounder plus next years 1st, for Killorn and Pointe?
That’s too much for Buffalo to give up. Not sure if we want Killorn. If the Sabres are going to bail TB out they have to come out of a deal on top, feeling like the won this trade (for a change)
Point and maybe Cirelli are the only elite forward players on Tampa without trade restrictions. I don’t see Tampa wanting to take much if any contracts back in a trade. Giving up the Sabres 2020 2nd, a protected next year’s 1st and maybe a prospect hopefully would get the trade made. Point is more proven, Cirelli would provide more years under control. Either would fill that 2C role.
I was just looking at CapFriendly & if the Blues buyout Marco Scandella’s contract this summer, the Habs take 50% ofthe cap hit over the next 7 years.
I find that very interesting!!!!
Hi Uwey
I’m fairly sure that is not correct
He was traded to Blues in Feb (50 % retained) as a pending UFA; then he re-upped with Blues in April… so 50% and any bind by Habs to his contract is for 19/20 only
Buyout should be fully hit against Blues
OK thanks, Pengy.
YW
Cheers 😁
Just wondering….I believe I read that the Cap won’t go down this year, but what about next year?
Hi Artsy19
I think it’s flat for 20/21 & 21/22
Thanks Pengy! I thought so, but it helps with my airchair GMing!
With that being said…flat cap and an expansion draft makes me wonder just how GMs/players are gonna negotiate the next few years.
I can see a big change in contracts being handed out.
If hockey-related revenue failed to reach $4.8 billion next season, the cap will remain at $81.5 million for 21-22.
As with any year, I’m sure there will be plenty of “offer” sheets (verbally).
These “offers” happen every year but none are formally reported on until they are actually signed (both team and player)… and those signed offer sheets are very rare.
I believe that MacKenzie said that he estimated that 10 to 15 “negotiations” / “verbal offer sheets” happen every year; and of course almost all fail past that stage
I have full confidence that GMMB will at least put out the call to Serg’s agent and do exploratory offers
$7M or more and Bolts just can’t match….. but Serg is unlikely to sign off on that
Per Gavin Group… $7 M in Mon has take home of $3.3 M; and $5.17 M in FLA ( Bolts) also has a take home of $3.3M
Serg could stay on a team he is familiar with; a team ranked top 3 or 4 in league; a top 2 fav for cup this year… by signing bridge 2 @ $5 M (with some sort of assurances of big payday in two years) and only be down a take home of about $115 K each of two years (vs Mon gross of $7 M) …. and he will more than make that up when contract after bridge is likely in the $8M range (closing in on $5.1 M take home in FLA)
It will be very tough (read nigh impossible) to get any of the Bolts with NTCs, to waive them (great team; too level team; nice city and amenities; great weather; huge tax advantages)
Of those lacking NTC….Bolts will not be moving Kuch; Stammer, Hed ; Vasy; or Point
setting aside the NTCs…. Bolts are left with as the top 3 next Cap hits …..only:
Coleman $1.8 M
Paquette $1.65M
Of those with NTCs (per Cap Freindly)
Gourde …. full NTC
Johnson ….. full NTC
Coburn … full NTC
Palat… $5.3M ; 20 teams he CAN be traded to
McD …..$6.8 M; 12 team no trade list….so 18 he can go to
Killorn ….. $4.5 M;16 team no trade list …. so 14 he can go to
Bolts in a pickle As with any year, I’m sure there will be plenty of “offer” sheets (verbally).
These “offers” happen every year but none are formally reported on until they are actually signed (both team and player)… and those signed offer sheets are very rare.
I believe that MacKenzie said that he estimated that 10 to 15 “negotiations” / “verbal offer sheets” happen every year; and of course almost all fail past that stage
I have full confidence that GMMB will at least put out the call to Serg’s agent and do exploratory offers
$7M or more and Bolts just can’t match….. but Serg is unlikely to sign off on that
Per Gavin Group… $7 M in Mon has take home of $3.3 M; and $5.17 M in FLA ( Bolts) also has a take home of $3.3M
Serg could stay on a team he is familiar with; a team ranked top 3 or 4 in league; a top 2 fav for cup this year… by signing bridge 2 @ $5 M (with some sort of assurances of big payday in two years) and only be down a take home of about $115 K each of two years (vs Mon gross of $7 M) …. and he will more than make that up when contract after bridge is likely in the $8M range (closing in on $5.1 M take home in FLA)
It will be very tough (read nigh impossible) to get any of the Bolts with NTCs, to waive them (great team; too level team; nice city and amenities; great weather; huge tax advantages)
Of those lacking NTC….Bolts will not be moving Kuch; Stammer, Hed ; Vasy; or Point
setting aside the NTCs…. Bolts are left with as the top 3 next Cap hits …..only:
Coleman $1.8 M
Paquette $1.65M
Of those with NTCs (per Cap Freindly)
Gourde …. full NTC
Johnson ….. full NTC
Coburn … full NTC
Palat… $5.3M ; 20 teams he CAN be traded to
McD …..$6.8 M; 12 team no trade list….so 18 he can go to
Killorn ….. $4.5 M;16 team no trade list …. so 14 he can go to
Bolts in a pickle
If they do re-up Serg; and if Foote is ready; could they move McD ; re-sign Shatts ar reasonable;
and go with Hed; Serg; Coburn; Shatts; Cernak; Rutta; Foote ?
😡😡😡😡
Sorry, don’t know how this posted twice (also above in reply to Uwey
No worries, I was trigger happy myself earlier today.
Pengy! My god, man. You should be re-deployed to work on a vaccine for the corona virus.
Just looking at Vegas, it seems if they buyout M-A Fleury & P. Stastny, they would open up $7.75 mill cap space for next year & $2 mill the following. The following two seasons after that, would cost them approximately $2 mill per season for Fleury.
If they believe Lehner is indeed their tender moving forward, then could it be a possibility???
FYI, I am back to work tomorrow folks, so I am trying get all my hockey talk in today.
Hope your RTW is safe Uwey
Chuck Fletcher gets a gold star IMO for re-signing Oskar Lindblom to a 3yr deal. Nice to see a feel good story for a change. I hope the kid makes a full recovery
Here here: as a fellow cancer survivor, it means the world to me to see a person like him succeed, regardless of team allegiances.
You can’t look at this years stats for Gourde. Anything can happen good or bad in a single season. What did he do in 2018-2019 ? PP line combinations nagging injury etc. Again if I am a team like Ottawa you could make it beneficial. Maybe a little dollarS held and a second Gets it done. IF he agrees. I hate NM contracts
BriseBois gets a black star. He better hope they don’t go out in first round again. I guess I wasn’t following the deadline all that closely. The more I look at Tampa. WTF? Blake Coleman is 28 years old and has a whopping 95 career points. How do you give up last years 1st rd pick, Foote, and a 1st this year? For a guy who’s career high in goals is 22? And Goodrow is 27 and has 73 career points and you gave up the 1st round pick you got from Van….SMH both under contract next year Cheap, but you must think very highly of them. If they believe Cirelli is good enough, I can definayely see them trading Pointe.