NHL Rumor Mill – July 22, 2024
A look ahead at the UFA class of 2025 in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
SPORTSNET: Ryan Dixon looked ahead at next summer’s class of unrestricted free agents.
He excluded Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl, Colorado Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen, Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, and New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin, assuming they’ll sign contract extensions with their current clubs.
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner tops Dixon’s list. He notes the 27-year-old winger holds all the cards with his full no-movement clause this season. Marner could play out this season with the Leafs and see what free agency holds next summer. The Leafs could try to re-sign him but Dixon doesn’t expect they’ll come up with a sufficiently high number that’s entice Marner to forego free agency.

Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Marner could re-sign with the Leafs if the average annual value is between William Nylander’s $11.5 million and Auston Matthews’ $13.25 million, preferably closer to the latter. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he tests the market.
Dixon also pondered the possibility of the Leafs bringing back captain John Tavares for half his current $11 million AAV.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Leafs Nation could prefer Tavares accept much less than that. He could get half of his current AAV on the open market. That’ll depend on his performance this season. The decline in his production in 2023-24 was noticeable. A further drop means he won’t get anything close to $5.5 million annually on his next contract from the Leafs or on the open market.
The Ottawa Senators will be keen to sign Linus Ullmark to an extension if his goaltending sparks a turnaround in their fortunes. However, the 30-year-old netminder could wait and see how things unfold this season.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Ullmark will likely stay patient and wait until the end of the season before making a decision.
Dixon noted the Vegas Golden Knights are always up against the salary cap, which could affect efforts to re-sign Shea Theodore. He noted they signed Noah Hanifin to an eight-year contract with an AAV of $7.4 million and wondered if a similar deal could get it done for Theodore.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Theodore seems destined to follow Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson out of Vegas via free agency. They have Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo carrying AAVs of over $7 million. They can’t afford a third blueliner with that cap hit.
Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser enjoyed a career-best 40-goal performance last season. A strong start in 2024-25 could see him and the club hammer out an in-season agreement.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Boeser will be an expensive re-signing. His current AAV is $6.65 million and he could seek over $9 million on his next deal.
Philadelphia Flyers winger Travis Konecny’s robust play will draw lots of interest if he goes to market next summer.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Konecny loves being a Flyer and management thinks highly of him. Nevertheless, his future in Philadelphia will depend on the club’s performance this season. If they falter, they could move him at the trade deadline for pieces that will help them rebuild.
It’s believed the Winnipeg Jets could trade Nikolaj Ehlers this summer. However, the Jets surprised us before by re-signing Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele last summer.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Hellebuyck and Scheifele are the Jets’ franchise players. Ehlers is a complementary winger. If they don’t trade him this summer, he could be moved at the March trade deadline if they’re out of playoff contention by then. Otherwise, they’ll hang onto Ehlers if they’re in the thick of the playoff race and watch him walk next summer.
The Florida Panthers have Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe and Aaron Ekblad eligible for UFA status next summer. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to retain all three of them. They could part ways with Ekblad, but that could further weaken their defense corps.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Panthers general manager Bill Zito has shown he can make bold moves to improve his club. For example, he could be proactive before free agency begins on July 1 by acquiring a replacement for Ekblad.
Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill could be the top goalie in next summer’s UFA market if he has a strong performance this season.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I think that honor will belong to Ullmark. Hill plays well when healthy but he’s battled lower-body injuries for several seasons.
Dixon believes Jamie Benn could accept a contract with a lower cap figure to remain with the Dallas Stars.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I don’t see the 35-year-old Benn leaving a Cup contender to chase another lucrative deal. He’s made his big money with his current deal paying him an AAV of $9.5 million. He could accept half that on a short-term deal to stay put.
A strong start to this season might prompt Patrick Kane and the Detroit Red Wings to discuss an extension.
Claude Giroux could stay in Ottawa if the Senators improve this season.
Jakob Chychrun could be anxious to get a long-term deal and plant roots with one team after bouncing among three clubs since 2022. Whether it’s with the Washington Capitals or another club remains to be seen.
The other notables include the Stars’ Esa Lindell, Brock Nelson of the New York Islanders, Gustav Nyquist of the Nashville Predators, Adam Larsson of the Seattle Kraken, Neal Pionk of the Jets, Frank Vatrano of the Anaheim Ducks, Dmitry Orlov of the Carolina Hurricanes, Vladislav Gavrikov of the Los Angeles Kings, Ivan Provorov of the Columbus Blue Jackets, and Taylor Hall of the Chicago Blackhawks.
For what it’s worth, Tavares take home from his current contract (for the past two years now) is $5.5m. It will be interesting to see what his next contract will look like.
While I still think Ullmark will sign a deal with Ottawa sooner rather than later, if he instead chooses to play out the season first, it’s not as if they just gave up the farm to get him – a goalie with 4 years to go on his deal who had ups and downs all season, a 4th line C and a second pick in the 1st round ranked near the bottom of Round 1.
And if it becomes clear that he will not sign in Ottawa as the season progresses, unless the team is in the thick of a playoff race he can be dealt at the trade deadline. The best-case scenario there would be one or two playoff-bound team suddenly in need of goaltending, thereby upping the ante.
Ya George, it was a smart move by Ottawa, they waited for the goalie market to dry up, and that offer was still better than Boston got elsewhere that was not on Ullmark’s NT list. Rumor is OTT was on that list as well, but not sure it has been confirmed. All the leverage was with OTT in that situation.
BOS had to do it as they needed the space to get the players they signed.
If Ullmark plays like he has most of his career OTT might recoup what they gave up, but again, who will be on that no trade list? Worth the risk IMO.
OTT might just make the playoffs if he plays up to his the back of his hockey card, and there are worse situations to be in than a young, up and coming team.
Ray, first thing he said in the press interview over a 25-minute Zoom call from his home in Sweden is that Ottawa was not on his 14-team no-go list, and that he looked forward to finding a place to reside with his family and get schools, etc. settled.
Circumstances could well dictate whether or not he signs here … but reading what he said, and his opinion of the team from having played against them (“It’s a very dangerous and quick team,” Ullmark said. “But they can also be pretty heavy. They’ve got (captain) Brady (Tkachuk) that is pulling the boat forward and he can do everything out there. “), tells me he is open to an extension … money and term two very much deciding factors.
I am guessing leafs sign both Marner and Tavares 12ish for Marner. And 5 ish for Tavares
I would like that but I don’t think most Leaf fans will.
BCLeaf Fan, how do you see Treleving resolving the last two RFAs to re-up – Dewar – 11g 8a 19 pts in 74gp with Minn & Tor and coming off an ELC of $800,000 – and Robertson – 14g 13a 27 pts in 56gp and coming off an ELC of $797,000?
He has $2,455,333 in cap space according to PuckPedia and the combined expiring ELCs total $1,597,000. Robertson alone would be looking at something in the $2.2 mil range.
Mrbruin4
If that is the case the Leaks stand to save roughly $4M on what they’re currently making.
That savings would go towards paying Woll’s new salary.
Depending on the emergence of Cowan and Minten perhaps the Leafs would be better off allowing
Tavares to walk and using the $5-6 million elsewhere?
What is evident is the Leafs need to see what they have in prospects Robertson, Niemela, Steeves, Villeneuve etc by giving them real NHL minutes.
Disagree, if Toronto needs to save cap space and walk away from a player, it’s Marner. He’s 2 to 3 million overpaid now, giving him a raise proves what. Tavares is still one of the top players in winning faceoffs and winning puck battles, 2 big +’s. Marner can’t do either and Domi proved that losing Marner won’t affect Matthews scoring ability. If you’re walking away from a player to save cap space, it’s Marner. Marner just doesn’t do enough of the little things to warrant the money he’s asking. You can move Tavares to comp for his lack of foot speed and he can still take faceoffs. Tavares at 5 x 4 mill and Marner if he wants to stay 4 x 8 mill
Yogi, here are some career stats to compare for MM and JT
Tavares – has reached points per game level 3 of 6 years in Toronto, and it +8 total in the regular season.
In the playoffs, he has scored 12G & 12A in 38 playoff games with Toronto, and is -9 in them
Marner has reached the points per game level in each of the last 6 seasons, and is +111 in those 6 years.
In the playoffs, Marner has played a total of 57 games with the Leafs, and scored 11G & 39A, and is +10.
So please explain why you would keep Tavares and dump Marner.
Iago, Pretty compelling argument. I have been asking that question since Leaf fans have decided that their teams problems are Marner’s fault due to the Pasta goal.
They are assuming it was Marner’s fault/responsibility to pick up Pasta on that play. I’m not so sure it was, Paul Maurice said the same thing publicly. Others have said the same thing. It was the weak side D-man. And even if it was his fault, and I’m not conceding that, it was one play.
Tavares is still a good player, should continue to be for a couple more years, but his performance will not get better at his age, the opposite is true. He’s a class act, and should be affordable and I get wanting to keep him at a better cap hit. What I don’t get is the dump Marner thing, especially if he blocks a trade and you get no return.
Leafs may very well get their wish, not sure it make them a better team as we have no idea who they get with that cap space. There will be quite a few players in Marners pay range soon enough, and I would prefer many of them over Marner. But which of those guys will be wearing a Leaf jersey in 25/26? Teams almost always keep them. If they don’t why Toronto?
Bird in hand.
You guys are looking at the situation wrong. Not trying to piint the finger of blame at anybody, it’s a matter of best use of cap space. When Domi was playing with Matthews, Matthews was scoring at a higher clip than with Marner. So how much is Marner really worth to Toronto if Domi at 3 mill did the same job as Marner at 11 mill. It’s a question of bang for your buck. Tavares at about 4 per is way better use of cap space than Marner at about 12 mill. If Marner were to say I want to stay and sign a fair deal say 8×8 then you keep Marner (never going to happen) Toronto needs help on defense and the money has to come from somewhere. Marner is a great player, but he’s still not worth his contract. No idea where the pointing of fingers comes from, not blaming anyone for last year. Last year was a total team failure, top to bottom
Fair enough Yogi, and sure is likely it won’t be a team friendly contract that Marner gets if he stays or if he leaves. But we all saw a bunch of bad contracts get handed out earlier this month that were worse than the bang for the buck that Marner is today.
Marner has flaws, but the guy can sure produce offense at an elite level. Year after year, after year. If the Leafs feel they have enough offence without him, or it can be replaced by signing UFA’s, then have at er.
I guess I’m a little bit more skeptical. As far as getting quality D, the deal Tanev just signed with Toronto is a taste of what to expect in the UFA market. Far from ideal.
Yogi, from a cap perspective, I say sign Marner, let Tavares walk. He has not been a playoff performer, and, at his age, probably never will be.
I think the next Tavaras contract depends on how close he thinks the Leafs are to winning a Cup. Counting on a hometown discount at this point are a bit premature.
Tavares signed to anything more than 5 is too much. I have beat this Marner drum forever- let him walk- tried to trade him- it wasnt meant to be. There is no universe where a team with Mitch Marner making 13 mill of your cap is winning anything in the playoffs. I am tired of hearing of all his regular season success -its hollow for a few reasons. Number 1 – he has been tied to Matthews hip his whole career and when he wasnt he was tied to a top centre in JT (yes he was a top centre when he arrived).
I want to see what he does with his own line. Matthews didnt miss a beat playing with Domi and Bertuzzi. Nylander is a nomad on all the lines and just excels. I want to see Marner spend some time driving his own line and see what he does. I heard for years how he made Matthews and was responsible for Tavares production- even though he arrived a point a game centre. The over-hype is incredible.
Point 2- he has never actually hit 100 points(semantics – maybe) but the leagues elite are over that threshold at least a few times. Im just tired of hearing he is in the same category of Mackinnon Matthews Pastrnak Kucherov and dare I say McDavid….its ridiculous. He is more in line with the Nylanders, Aho, Rantanens of the world than the former. LET him walk!
if you watch Leafs playoff – you know that that when the intensity is turned up and the game is physical- he is nowhere to be found- it is so painfully obvious- but I must be missing something
You are missing something…don’t worry though, you’re not alone.