There Could Be More Short-Term NHL Contract Signings This Summer

by | Jun 11, 2023

There Could Be More Short-Term NHL Contract Signings This Summer

For the first time since 2019, the NHL’s annual free-agent period will open on July 1.

Apart from spoiling the Canada Day holiday for pundits, bloggers and freelancers (like me), it represents another return to normalcy for a league that – like everyone and everything else in the world – saw its normal calendar upset by the COVID-19 pandemic.

It’s usually a time when restricted and unrestricted free agents sign lucrative long-term contracts. Some players and teams are wasting little time getting the jump on things.

On June 5, the Montreal Canadiens re-signed RFA winger Cole Caufield to an eight-year, $62.8-million deal. Four days later, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired pending UFA defenseman Damon Severson from the New Jersey Devils and signed him to an eight-year, $50-million contract.

Those deals seem to signal that it could be business as usual in this year’s free-agent market. However, sandwiched between the Caufield and Severson signings was Vladislav Gavrikov’s two-year, $11.75 million contract with the Los Angeles Kings.

Acquired before the March trade deadline from the Columbus Blue Jackets, Gavrikov quickly established himself as a key member of the Kings’ defense corps.

The 6’3”, 217-pound blueliner played so well for the Kings that they offered him a long-term contract. However, his agent reportedly pushed for the shorter term in order for Gavrikov to reenter the UFA market when the salary cap is expected to be significantly higher.

The salary cap for 2023-24 is projected to remain flattened, rising only by $1 million to $83.5 million as per the terms of the 2020 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Meanwhile, Cap Friendly indicates 16 clubs carry less than $10 million in cap space while another five teams have less than $15 million. That’s 21 out of 32 NHL teams facing a difficult offseason bidding for UFA talent or re-signing key talent.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman recently explained the reason behind that ongoing flattened cap for next season is the players still have outstanding escrow payments owed to the NHL team owners due to the imbalance in hockey-related revenue during the COVID-shortened seasons of 2019-20 and 2020-21.

That outstanding balance will be paid off by the end of 2023-24, after which the cap is projected to rise by at least $4 million in 2024-25 and another $4 million in 2025-26. Some speculate those increases could be even higher.

For Gavrikov, this means he’ll become a UFA in the summer of 2025 when he’ll be 29. If he continues playing well for the Kings, he could be in line for a longer-term contract with an average annual value worth much more than the $5.875 million AAV of his upcoming deal.

Not every player will follow Gavrikov’s example, preferring the security of a long-term deal. Others, however, could see this as an opportunity to get a good raise now on a shorter term while betting on themselves to receive much bigger paydays in two or three years’ time.










2023 Stanley Cup Final Prediction

by | Jun 2, 2023

2023 Stanley Cup Final Prediction

Well, my Stanley Cup playoff prediction record for this season is in ruins.

I went a respectable four-for-eight in the first round, a pathetic one-for-four in the second round and an embarrassing oh-fer in the Conference Finals.

Honestly, I’ve enjoyed the chaos of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs. I loved seeing the 16th-seeded Florida Panthers reach the Final. It’s been fun watching Jack Eichel giving a good account of himself in his first-ever postseason with the Vegas Golden Knights.

That being said, it’s time to have a laugh and see if I can at least get the Stanley Cup Final right.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS

The Golden Knights got this far by eliminating the Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars. Meanwhile, the Panthers upset the first-overall Boston Bruins, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the second-overall Carolina Hurricanes.

Both clubs are seeking their first Stanley Cup championship.

Looking at the Golden Knights, they should be the favorite to win this series. Their goals-per-game (3.65) is better than the Panthers (3.13). Six Golden Knights – Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, William Karlsson and Chandler Stephenson – sit among this postseason’s top-15 scorers whereas Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov are the only Panthers among that group.

The goaltending appears to be a wash. Vegas’ Adin Hill (2.07 goals-against, .937 goals-against average) has slightly better stats than Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky (2.21 GAA, .935 SP), who is a former two-time Vezina Trophy winner. It’s the first time both netminders have gone this far in postseason play.

Hill was a castoff of the Arizona Coyotes and San Jose Sharks and was a third-stringer for the Golden Knights until pressed into service due to injuries to Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit.

Bobrovsky, meanwhile, struggled to regain his former Vezina form after joining the Panthers as a free agent in 2019. He took over midway through the first round with the Panthers down three games to one to the mighty Bruins and carried his club into the Cup Final.

The Golden Knights appear to have a deeper, more experienced roster. Their skilled blueline is anchored by former Stanley Cup champions Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez. They possess plenty of scoring punch with original Golden Knights Marchessault and Reilly Smith being Stanley Cup finalists in 2018 while Barbashev won a Cup in St. Louis with Pietrangelo in 2019.

Nevertheless, I’m drawn to the Panthers. They’re a hardworking underdog that’s been fun to watch during this postseason, upsetting three heavily-favored opponents along the way.

Bobrovsky and Tkachuk are the prime reasons the Panthers have reached this far and must be considered the front-runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. Bobrovsky has reminded everyone this spring why he was a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. Tkachuk, meanwhile, has been clutch for the Panthers, leading them in scoring and has four game-winning goals, including three in overtime.

However, the exploits of Bobrovsky and Tkachuk overshadow a solid lineup for the Panthers. Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour, Aaron Ekblad and Anthony Duclair have all stepped up and played well. This club plays an aggressive, physical forechecking style that punishes and frustrates their opponents.

My head tells me to choose the Golden Knights. My heart says to go with the Panthers.

In the end, doesn’t everyone love an underdog story?

PREDICTION: PANTHERS WIN THE STANLEY CUP IN SIX GAMES










Conference Finals Predictions – 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

by | May 17, 2023

Conference Finals Predictions – 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

After going four-for-eight with my first-round predictions, I went a pathetic one-for-four in the second round. So, folks, don’t base your Conference Finals bets on my prognostications. Remember, this is all just for fun.

Anyway, let’s see if I can have better luck this time around. Feel free to point and laugh in the comments section. Bet responsibly, kids. A fool and his money and all that…

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers

The Hurricanes got here by eliminating the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils while the Panthers upset the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Despite the absence of sidelined forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Max Pacioretty and Teuvo Teravainen, the Hurricanes got production from depth forwards Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Sebastian Aho remains the linchpin of their offense.

Defense and goaltending are the Hurricanes’ strengths. Led by Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns, their blueline has contributed offensively while shutting down opposing scorers. Their 90.0 penalty-killing percentage is the postseason’s best. Frederik Andersen was superb between the pipes against the Devils. The Canes’ 2.55 goals-against per game is the second-lowest. 

The Panthers’ physical style and gritty offense were critical factors in getting them to this point. Matthew Tkachuk has risen to the occasion as a playoff performer, Brandon Montour provides invaluable production from the blueline while forwards Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair have proven difficult to contain.

Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid in the Panthers’ net since the midpoint of their first-round series against Boston. Their overall defensive game did a fine job neutralizing the Bruins and Leafs best scorers.

It’s going to be an interesting matchup between Carolina’s strong defense and Florida’s aggressive forecheck. Considering how games become tighter-checking affairs as the playoffs roll along, that could favor the Hurricanes. PREDICTION: Hurricanes in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

The Stars reached this point by beating the Minnesota Wild and the Seattle Kraken. The Vegas Golden Knights bested the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers.

This is the fourth time in six years Vegas has reached the Western Conference Finals. It’s also the second time since 2020 that they will face the Stars, who bested them the last time around.

Vegas’ 3.73 goals-per-game average is the second-highest in this postseason. Leading scorer Jack Eichel is thriving in his first-ever NHL playoffs. Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson have also flourished in these playoffs.

The Golden Knights possess a solid defense anchored by Alex Pietrangelo. Their goaltending has been decimated by injuries yet Adin Hill replaced the sidelined Laurent Brossoit midway through the Oilers series and backstopped them to victory.

Led by Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, the Stars have plenty of scoring punch of their own. Regular-season scoring leader Jason Robertson only has two goals but collected 10 assists thus far. Veterans Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and trade-deadline pickup Max Domi have also been key contributors.

Dallas’ starting goaltender Jake Oettinger has had a handful of difficult games but has also shown that he can bounce back well. Led by Miro Heiskanen, the Stars have given up the third-fewest shots (29.4) and possess the third-best penalty kill.

Both clubs have plenty of talent and roster depth so this series could go the distance. Defense should make the difference here. If Oettinger remains sharp, this should go Dallas’ way. PREDICTION: STARS IN SEVEN.










Second Round Predictions – 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

by | May 2, 2023

Second Round Predictions – 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

The first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs is history.

We saw the defending champion Colorado Avalanche upset by the underdog Seattle Kraken.

The Florida Panthers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to knock off the record-setting Presidents’ Trophy-winning Boston Bruins.

For the first time in 19 years, the Toronto Maple Leafs won a playoff series by eliminating the Tampa Bay Lightning.

I went four-for-eight with my opening-round predictions. Let’s see how I fare with my second-round picks.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS

The intro explained how these two got here. With 111 points, the Leafs finished 19 points ahead of the Panthers in the Atlantic Division, who overcame a shaky first half to qualify for the playoffs on the last week of the season. Both clubs aren’t that far apart in terms of offense and goaltending but the Leafs have better penalty-killing and faceoff win stats.

Led by their core of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly, the Leafs pack a potent scoring punch. They’ve received reliable goaltending from Ilya Samsonov while two-way center Ryan O’Reilly has provided a steadying influence.

The Panthers, however, aren’t to be taken lightly. Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour can light the lamp while the tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Alex Lyon backstopped them past the Bruins.

PREDICTION: MAPLE LEAFS IN SIX GAMES

EDMONTON OILERS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

The Oilers advanced by eliminating the Los Angeles Kings from the first round for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets.

Getting two-way winger and team captain Mark Stone back in the lineup for the postseason provided a big boost for the Golden Knights in the first round. Jack Eichel has played well thus far in his first NHL postseason as Vegas sits fourth among playoff scorers.

The Oilers remain the offensive juggernaut they were in the regular season, leading all playoff clubs in scoring and power-play percentage. Superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl remain in top form and could feast on a Golden Knights penalty kill that was 15th among the 16 first-round clubs.

PREDICTION: OILERS IN SIX GAMES

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS

This battle of the top two teams in the Metropolitan Division came about as the Hurricanes despatched the New York Islanders in six games while the Devils overcame a 2-0 series deficit to eliminate the New York Rangers in seven games.

The Hurricanes got this far on the strength of their goaltending depth and their solid defensive game, including a playoff-best penalty-killing percentage. They’ve got plenty of postseason experience led by stars such as Sebastian Aho and Brent Burns.

While the Devils are near the bottom in postseason scoring, they’re loaded with swift-skating young talent led by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. They also got a shot of confidence from the solid play of rookie goalie Akira Schmid. They could be poised to pull off an upset here.

PREDICTIONS: DEVILS IN SEVEN GAMES

DALLAS STARS VS SEATTLE KRAKEN

The Stars defeated the Minnesota Wild in the opening round in six games while the Kraken as noted in the intro upset the Avalanche in seven games.

Dallas still has veteran leaders in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski but younger stars like Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and goalie Jake Oettinger played key roles in eliminating the Wild. They’ve got the lowest goals-against per game in this postseason thus far.

The Kraken’s upset of the Avalanche shows they’re a club not to be taken lightly. They got clutch goaltending from Philipp Grubauer, a strong forecheck and penalty kill, plus they can spread their scoring throughout their lineup. However, it may not be enough to defeat the Stars.

PREDICTION: STARS IN FIVE GAMES










First-Round Predictions For The 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

by | Apr 16, 2023

First-Round Predictions For The 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

The 2022-23 NHL regular season has ended with 16 of the 32 clubs having qualified for the playoffs. Here are my predictions as to which clubs will emerge victorious in the first round beginning Monday, April 17. Feel free to make your prognostications in the comments section below.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers

The Bruins dominated the regular season, setting records with 65 wins and 135 points. They were the league’s best defensive team and among the highest-scoring led by 61-goal scorer David Pastrnak. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov lead the Panthers’ offensive attack but they lack the goaltending and blueline depth to win this series. BRUINS IN FIVE.

Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders

Possessing solid goaltending and a deep defense corps featuring Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin, the Hurricanes finished second overall this season. The Islanders play a grinding defensive style tailor-made for the playoffs while goalie Ilya Sorokin can steal a series. Nevertheless, the Hurricanes’ offense led by Sebastian Aho gives them the edge. HURRICANES IN SIX.

New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers

The Battle of the Hudson River resumes for the first time in 11 years in one of the most anticipated series in this round. Led by young stars Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils are a fast, exciting team. However, the Rangers have the advantage with a deep, experienced roster backstopped by Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin. RANGERS IN SEVEN.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning

For the second straight year, the Leafs and Lightning face off in the first round. The Lightning still possess a strong core of talent in Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brayden Point. However, their supporting cast isn’t as deep this time. The Leafs are overdue to at least win a playoff series. Leading scorers Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander will be determined to finally silence their critics. LEAFS IN SIX.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets

Despite an injury-ravaged roster, the Golden Knights finished atop the Western Conference. Led by Jack Eichel and workhorse defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, this club spreads its offense throughout the lineup. The Jets were inconsistent this season but rode the goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck into the postseason. I’ve got a feeling they can pull off the upset if Hellebuyck stays hot and their scorers regain their early-season form. JETS IN SEVEN.

Colorado Avalanche vs Seattle Kraken

The defending Stanley Cup champion Avs surged up the standings in the second half to win the Central Division title. Powered by Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, they did it despite superstar defenseman Cale Makar being hampered by injuries. The Kraken significantly improved their offense and defense this season but it won’t be enough to overcome the more experienced Avs. AVALANCHE IN FOUR.

Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild

The Stars possess a well-balanced roster anchored by winger Jason Robertson, defenseman Miro Heiskanen and goalie Jake Oettinger. Led by winger Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, the Wild possess scoring skills as well as good goaltending in Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. However, their depth at center got thinner with Joel Eriksson Ek likely sidelined for this series. STARS IN FIVE.

Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings

Another 2022 first-round rematch pit the high-octane Oilers offense and its one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against the Kings’ improved two-way game led by Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. The Oilers were bolstered by the addition of Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline. However, the Kings got a boost from trade deadline acquisitions Joona Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov. It should be another closely-contested series but the Oilers’ offense will carry them through. OILERS IN SIX.










An NHL Franchise In Quebec City Remains A Fantasy

by | Mar 15, 2023

An NHL Franchise In Quebec City Remains A Fantasy

Shortly after the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline, ESPN’s Jon Buccigross and Kevin Weekes made cryptic tweets raising speculation the 32-team league could expand into Houston and return to Atlanta.

NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly subsequently denied that the league had plans afoot for further expansion. He claimed it wasn’t a priority but didn’t rule out entertaining offers from groups that had interest, including those in Houston and Atlanta.

That prompted The Hockey News’ Adam Proteau to wonder if Quebec City would ever get an NHL franchise before Houston or Atlanta. While acknowledging Houston and Atlanta have the advantage in terms of market size, Proteau made the case for Quebec City to have a second chance at getting a team, citing its modern, publicly funded, 18,000-seat arena and deeply ingrained hockey culture.

Proteau acknowledged Quebec City’s market would be the league’s smallest with its population of 550,000 while the metro population of 800,000 would be the second-smallest. However, he also pointed out the Arizona Coyotes’ ongoing arena woes that have them skating in a 4,600-seat college arena while awaiting approval to construct a new venue in Tempe.

Centre Videotron in Quebec City (NHL.com).

He also pointed out that Quebec City, like the Winnipeg Jets, already has a built-in, ready-to-go fan base that would have little difficulty filling their building. He dismissed concerns over the language issue by pointing out that Quebec City worked fine before as an NHL city while Montreal has no issues as a bilingual hockey city.

Those are worthwhile arguments in Quebec City’s favor. It would certainly be more deserving than Atlanta, which has already failed twice as an NHL city thanks to the mismanagement of those previous franchises.

Sadly, however, those arguments will likely continue to fall on deaf ears at NHL headquarters. The league wants to continue expanding in the larger, lucrative US markets at the expense of smaller, hockey-mad Canadian cities.

It’s why Quebec City was passed over in favor of Las Vegas and Seattle. It’s why it will be passed over if a group in Houston is willing to pony up what’s likely to be a $1 billion expansion fee. It’s why there’s actually talk of a third attempt to establish an NHL presence in Atlanta. It’s why Kansas City and Portland stand a better chance at landing a franchise if someone with deep pockets wants to put an NHL club in either city.

It’s all about which markets can generate the most revenue, and Quebec City comes up short against Houston, Atlanta, Kansas City and Portland.

Getting an expansion team is a pipe dream for Quebec City. Their best hope for landing an NHL franchise is if an existing one is forced to relocate to a new city.

The Winnipeg Jets were resurrected in 2011 because the NHL needed a new location quickly when no one could be found to purchase the struggling Thrashers and keep them in Atlanta. Winnipeg’s True North Sports and Entertainment were the only viable alternative at the time.

The Arizona Coyotes could become a relocation candidate if their current owner fails to get approval for their Tempe arena project. With no other viable arena options, the franchise would have to be moved despite the NHL’s best efforts to keep it in Arizona.

Houston would be the most likely destination if the NHL finally waives the white flag on Arizona. Failing that, it would be Atlanta, Kansas City or Portland. Only if no suitable potential ownership group can be found in those cities would Quebec City get its chance.

The odds of that happening, however, seem quite long. As long as the NHL remains enamored of expanding into non-traditional hockey markets in its ongoing quest to “grow the game,” a natural hockey market like Quebec City will remain on the outside looking in.