Maple Leafs Need Matthews At His Best To Achieve Overdue Playoff Success

by | Apr 17, 2022

Maple Leafs Need Matthews At His Best To Achieve Overdue Playoff Success

In his sixth NHL season, Auston Matthews is on a torrid goal-scoring pace not seen in the league for some time.

With 58 goals in 69 games entering Sunday’s game against the New York Islanders, the 24-year-old Toronto Maple Leafs center is poised to become the first player to score 60 goals in a season since Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos in 2011-12. With seven games remaining in the schedule, he also has a shot at becoming the first player to reach 65 goals since Washington Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08.

Matthews has already secured his spot in Leafs history by establishing their single-season goal-scoring record. Having become the first player in franchise history to win the Maurice Richard Trophy with 41 goals in 52 games last season, he seems likely to take home that honor for the second straight year.

Thanks to his goal-scoring exploits, Matthews must be considered a serious challenger for the Hart Memorial Trophy as the league’s most valuable player. He could become the first Leaf to win that award since Teeder Kennedy in 1955.

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (NHL Images).

Leafs Nation is giddy over Matthews’ performance and they have every right to be. He’s been a bonafide star since winning the Calder Memorial Trophy as rookie of the year in 2016-17. Injuries prevented him from reaching the 50-goal plateau earlier in his career but his offensive brilliance was never in doubt.

This season, however, Matthews has taken his game to a higher level, establishing himself as his generation’s best goal scorer. Of his 58 goals, 43 were scored at even strength. He’s their puck possession leader with a shot-attempts percentage of 59.8. The Leafs center has also improved his defensive game, tied for the league lead in takeaways (86) with Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo. He’s also solid in the faceoff circle, winning 56.6 percent of his draws.

The problem is, none of Matthews’ accomplishments this season will matter if the Leafs fail to get past the opening round of the playoffs.

Matthews could win the Hart Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award along with the Richard Trophy when the NHL Awards are handed out this summer and it won’t mean squat to Leafs fans if they suffer another first-round exit.

Even if the Leafs advance past the first round for the first time since 2004, Matthews’ regular-season efforts won’t count for much if they get bounced in the second round. Nothing less than at least reaching the Eastern Conference Final will satisfy long-suffering Leafs fans, and even then, there will be some grumbling that they didn’t go all the way and win the Stanley Cup.

Everyone knows the Leafs’ last Cup win was in 1967. It’s the longest championship drought in league history. Generations of Leafs fans have been born without seeing their favorite team win hockey’s holy grail. Every year, the pressure increases, especially when the Leafs have rosters with the capability of ending that streak.

The Leafs dominated their all-Canadian division during last season’s COVID-shortened campaign. Squaring off in the opening round against the lowly Montreal Canadiens, they held a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before the Canadiens roared back with three straight wins to take the series, sending the Leafs and their fans into an offseason of bitter disappointment.

Being among the Leafs’ core players, Matthews caught his fair share of criticism from Toronto fans and pundits. For good reason, too, as he was held to just one goal and five points by the Canadiens checkers and goaltender Carey Price.

Matthews’ stellar performance this season has served as a balm to soothe the jangled nerves of Leafs fans, but it’s also raised expectations. With the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs approaching, he will be expected to pilot his club toward that long-overdue championship glory. John Tavares may be the team captain, but the burden of leadership is truly on Matthews’ shoulders.

Yes, other members of the Leafs’ core – Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, Jack Campbell – must also step up. But Matthews’ showstopping production this season has thrust him into a much brighter spotlight. He will be expected to carry this club to its first opening-round series victory in nearly 20 years and its first Stanley Cup in over a half-century.

If Matthews isn’t at his very best this spring, everything he accomplished during the regular season will be overshadowed by his postseason failure and that of his teammates.

The calls for change from the restless denizens of Leafs Nation will grow louder, perhaps leading to a change in management or coaching, maybe even a roster shakeup. Matthews probably wouldn’t be part of the latter but who can say what could happen following another discouraging postseason finish in Toronto?

All that can be avoided, or at least the odds of it happening greatly reduced if Matthews’ outstanding regular-season effort carries over into the 2022 postseason.

Failure is no longer an option for Matthews and the Leafs. He and his teammates must rise to the occasion this spring or remain damned as playoff choke artists.










Winning The NHL Trade Deadline Doesn’t Guarantee A Stanley Cup

by | Mar 20, 2022

Winning The NHL Trade Deadline Doesn’t Guarantee A Stanley Cup

​The NHL’s annual trade deadline, set this year at 3 pm ET on March 21, is always an exciting point on the league calendar for hockey fans.

Rumors always abound among the press and social media in the days leading up to the deadline over which notable players could be on the move, stoking excitement and expectation among the fans.

Most deals involve postseason contenders shipping draft picks and prospects to non-playoff clubs in exchange for pending free agents. Occasionally, a “hockey trade” involving a player-for-player swap breaks up the monotony. Sometimes, a multi-team deal takes place allowing a club with limited salary-cap space to acquire a high-salaried player by spreading his cap hit among three teams.

Once the deadline is passed and the dust settles, there follows a plethora of media assessments over which teams “won” and “lost” the deadline deals. The winners are usually the clubs that landed the best players and thus sufficiently improved their chances of winning the Stanley Cup

NHL history is replete with examples of teams acquiring key players before the trade deadline who helped them become Cup champions. The New York Islanders landing Butch Goring in 1980, the Pittsburgh Penguins dealing for Ron Francis in 1991, the Detroit Red Wings bringing in Larry Murphy in 1997, the Colorado Avalanche trading for Rob Blake in 2001 and the Los Angeles Kings taking on Jeff Carter in 2012 and Marian Gaborik in 2014 are several notable examples.

In most cases, however, the teams considered trade deadline “winners” don’t go on to win the Stanley Cup.

Boston Bruins winger Taylor Hall (NHL Images).

For example, the Boston Bruins were considered a winner at last year’s deadline for landing former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall. So was the Toronto Maple Leafs after pulling off a clever three-team move to land forward Nick Foligno.

In the end, the Bruins only reached the second round of the 2021 playoffs while the Leafs were upset in the opening round. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning went on to win the Stanley Cup with their biggest move being the acquisition of depth defenseman David Savard.

In 2020, the Pittsburgh Penguins acquired Patrick Marleau while the Carolina Hurricanes landed Vincent Trocheck among three of their deadline moves. However, it was the Lightning who went on to win the Cup, thanks in part to adding depth forwards Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. The Penguins, meanwhile, were bounced from the qualifying round while the Hurricanes came up short in the first round.

The 2019 trade deadline saw the Columbus Blue Jackets acquire Matt Duchene among several moves designed to turn the Jackets into a contender before Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky departed that summer as free agents. Those moves helped them win their first playoff round in franchise history but that’s as far as they got. The Vegas Golden Knights acquired winger Mark Stone from the Ottawa Senators and signed him to a long-term extension. While the Golden Knights got themselves a top-flight two-way talent, it hasn’t helped them win that elusive Cup.

This isn’t to lay the blame on the players acquired by the teams that “won” the deadline but failed to win the Cup. In most cases, they couldn’t be faulted for their new clubs’ inability to advance.

Acquiring a player at the trade deadline, even a very good or great one, can be a crap-shoot. Sometimes, the move pans out and sometimes it doesn’t. The player could be among the best on his new team but they fail to go all the way because of other roster issues that management failed to address or never foresaw.

That doesn’t mean a general manager shouldn’t avail himself of the opportunity to improve his roster at the trade deadline, even if it means sometimes overpaying in terms of draft picks and prospects for a short-term acquisition who could depart as a free agent in the offseason. Sometimes, it’s worth the gamble. It can also prove to be a worthwhile long-term acquisition if the player re-signs or still has term on his contract.

Trade-deadline moves can certainly help to improve an NHL roster be it for one playoff round or several. Those moves can even help a club remain among the Cup contenders for several years.

Nevertheless, one should never assume that the teams acquiring the best players at the deadline are assured of a Stanley Cup. Sometimes, it’s the team that makes the under-the-radar deals that wins the big mug. And sometimes, it’s the team that didn’t need to make any major moves because they already had the roster depth to become a champion.










Pressure To Win Could Account For Canada’s Stanley Cup Drought

by | Jan 26, 2022

Pressure To Win Could Account For Canada’s Stanley Cup Drought

Of Canada’s seven NHL franchises, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the only ones holding a playoff berth at the halfway point of the 2021-22 season.

Meanwhile, seven of the NHL’s 10 “Sun Belt” franchises – Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Los Angeles, Nashville Predators, Vegas Golden Knights and the defending back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning – would make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Arizona Coyotes, Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks would be outside the postseason picture. 

It’s been 29 years since a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup.

A Canadian team last won the Stanley Cup in 1993. Since then, a Canadian club only reached the Final six times. Over the same period, a Sun Belt team has won the Cup eight times and reached the Final eight times.

It seems those Southern U.S. clubs have had better luck than their cousins in the Great White North. Actually, luck has nothing to do with it. The cold hard facts are those teams have been better managed and coached compared to their Canadian brethren over the same period.

That doesn’t mean those Sun Belt teams haven’t had their share of troubles. They’ve spent their share of time wallowing among the also-rans, in some cases for many years.

Some, like the Predators and Panthers, were dogged by whispers of relocation while the Atlanta Thrashers wound up moving to Winnipeg. Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes remain in place despite years of multiple owners and questionable management thanks to the sheer force of will of league commissioner Gary Bettman.

Most of those teams, however, still managed to find a way to get it right. They eventually put together a solid front office staff, draft and develop talented players, make shrewd trades and free-agent signings to augment their lineups, and hire the right coaching staff to turn their rosters into contenders.

Meanwhile, Canada’s teams stumble along, sometimes seeming on the verge of becoming serious Cup contenders, only to make costly mistakes that knock them out of the running.

It’s not as though the Canadian teams haven’t hired experienced general managers or coaches. Most have had various degrees of success with previous clubs. So why is it that they seem to struggle in Canada?

Once upon a time, Canadian fans could pin the blame on the low value of the Canadian dollar and the free-spending ways of the rich American hockey markets. That’s no longer the case with the Canuck buck at a higher value, a salary cap leveling the field and a revenue-sharing plan that ensures Canadian clubs will have the same competitive advantage as their American cousins.

The expansion of the league from 24 franchises in 1993 to 32 franchises is a contributing factor. More teams mean more competition for draft picks and established players through trades and free agency. Nevertheless, the Sun Belt franchises face the same challenges and most have managed to do all right for themselves.

Of course, many of those teams are in states with low or no state taxes, paid in American dollars which go much further than Canadian dollars. The warmer weather can also be enticing.

Being able to lead relatively normal lives in those markets is also a big draw for the players. They live and work in much larger cities compared to those in Canada where they’re not the only major sport in town. The NHL is well down the popularity pole in those markets compared to basketball, football, baseball and NASCAR.

The players can go about their lives without being constantly harangued by fans if they’re mired in a slump or their club is in danger of missing the playoffs. They’re not facing packs of reporters tracking their every word and passing harsh judgment on their efforts.

That’s not the same thing for their Canadian peers. Even in the smallest markets such as Winnipeg and Ottawa, the players face a fishbowl existence.

Management and coaches and team owners feel it too. They understand what hockey means to Canadians. They know about the rich histories of the Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. They know how much fans of the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets and Ottawa Senators long to win their first championships.

In hockey parlance, those clubs have little time and space to build and maintain a champion. The mantra among the Canadian hockey punditry is the fans won’t have the patience to go through a long rebuild. They want a winner and they want it now.

Since 1993, every Canadian team has endured long droughts outside the playoff picture.

Ask Leaf fans how much fun it was making the playoffs just once between 2005-06 and 2015-16. Or Oilers fans if they were enjoying themselves while their club reached the postseason once between 2006-07 and 2018-19. Or Flames fans about the lost years between 1996-97 and 2002-03 and 2009-10 and 2013-14. Or Senators fans about the last four years. Or Canucks fans about reaching the playoffs once in the last six years. Heck, ask Canadiens fans how much of a kick in the junk it is to see their team dead last overall after reaching the Cup Final seven months ago.

Those teams, however, weren’t undergoing a rebuilding phase during those lean years. In most cases, they were trying to reach the playoffs.

They changed management or coaches, traded away or acquired players, and set their sights on the postseason. And after they failed, they’d go out and try again and promise the fans and media that they were heading in the right direction, that they had a competitive team, that they were just the victims of injury or bad luck the previous year.

Rarely has a Canadian team told its fans it was engaging in a rebuild. The Leafs were a notable exception. In 2015 and 2016, they shed stars such as Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf for draft picks and prospects, warning its fans that several years of pain were ahead.

Rather than get upset, Leafs fans bought into team president Brendan Shanahan’s plan, or “Shanaplan” as it was later dubbed. They knew their club was long overdue for a true rebuild, that years of patchwork attempts to build a Cup contender wasn’t working. They handled it well throughout 2015-16, accepting the concept of short-term pain for long-term gain as their club rebuilt with young players.

That rebuild, however, didn’t last long. Powered by young guns Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, the Leafs made the playoffs in 2017. The following season, they were among the league’s best, reaching a franchise record 49 wins and 105 points in the regular season. They were eliminated from the opening round by the Boston Bruins, but they seemed destined to become a Cup contender if they stuck to their rebuild.

Instead, the “Shanaplan” was quickly scrapped. They blew up their budget by signing free agent John Tavares to a monster contract and handing out big bucks re-signing Matthews and Marner. They became a club top-heavy in offense but lack sufficient defensive depth to match up well against the league’s best clubs. To date, they still haven’t won a first-round series since 2004.

It came down to impatience on the part of the Leafs’ front office, fueled by the heightened expectations of Toronto fans and media. Rather than stick with the plan, they tried to take shortcuts and are still dealing with the consequences.

The Canadiens appear poised for a rebuild under the new management following this disastrous season. Will they learn from the Leafs’ mistakes or repeat them? It will be difficult to avoid the pitfalls given the pressure cooker they face on a daily basis.

None of the Canadian teams have the luxury of rebuilding out of the harsh spotlight like the Sun Belt franchises. Their demanding markets simply won’t allow it.

Until that trend changes, Sun Belt franchises will remain Stanley Cup contenders while Canadian clubs will be mere pretenders.










Happy Holidays!

by | Dec 24, 2021

Happy Holidays!

I’m taking my annual holiday break from Dec. 24 to Dec. 27, 2021. The next update to this site will be Dec. 28. Happy Holidays, everyone!

 

Christmas Christmas Light GIFfrom Christmas GIFs










Canadiens Fire Bergevin, Timmins

by | Nov 28, 2021

Canadiens Fire Bergevin, Timmins

​The Montreal Canadiens fired general manager Marc Bergevin and assistant GM Trevor Timmins. Paul Wilson, senior vice president of public affairs and communication, was also relieved of his duties.

Former Montreal Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin (NHL.com).

Former New York Rangers GM Jeff Gorton has been hired as executive vice-president of hockey operations. He will play a significant role in selecting a new general manager and head scout.

Bergevin had been Canadiens GM since 2012 and is in the last year of his contract. Timmins spent 17 seasons with the Habs and was promoted to assistant GM in 2017, overseeing their amateur scouting.

Under Bergevin’s management, the Canadiens made six playoff appearances, reaching the 2021 Stanley Cup Final and the 2014 Eastern Conference Final. He made several noteworthy additions via trades and free agents. They include current Habs such as Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry, Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson, Jake Allen, and Christian Dvorak.

Timmins, meanwhile, helped the Canadiens select Carey Price (2005), Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban and Ryan McDonagh (2007), Brendan Gallagher (2010) and Mikhail Sergachev (2016).

However, the Canadiens have had their difficulties in recent years. They missed the playoffs in 2017-18 and 2018-19. In 2020, they qualified only because of a one-time-only expanded playoff format due to the cancellation of the remainder of the regular season by COVID-19. They qualified last season because of divisional changes in a COVID-shortened schedule.

The Canadiens are off to one of their worst starts in franchise history this season, in part because of the absence of superstar goaltender Carey Price and captain Shea Weber to injuries and Price’s one-month stint in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. The lack of leadership in the dressing room and on the ice has been a critical factor in the Habs’ struggles.

Bergevin, however, faced growing criticism from fans and pundits for the club’s poor effort in recent years. He’s also been taken to task for several questionable trades and signings, as well as the development of the club’s promising young players.

Some fans are still smarting over his swap of Subban for Weber, though that move ultimately worked out in the long-term for the Canadiens. Other questionable decisions include shipping Sergachev to Tampa Bay for Jonathan Drouin, signing David Savard and Karl Alzner, and passing on re-signing popular Habs like Alexander Radulov, Andrei Markov and Phillip Danault.

Timmins, meanwhile, had more misses than hits in his draft history. The Canadiens’ most notable first-round draft picks between 2008 and 2015 were depth players Alex Galchenyuk and Nathan Beaulieu.

Sergachev (2016) is now starring with the Lightning. Ryan Poehling (2017) and Cole Caufield (2019) have shown varying degrees of potential but the jury remains out on whether they’ll reach their potential.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2018) was signed away by a one-year offer sheet from the Carolina Hurricanes in August. His struggle to meet expectations that dogged him in Montreal seems to have carried over with Carolina.

Canadiens owner and president Geoff Molson was criticized by the Montreal media for his unwillingness to publicly address his club’s poor performance through the first two months of this season. However, reports are emerging that he had been considering front office changes for some time. At one point it appeared assistant GM Scott Mellanby would either replace Bergevin or take over as overseer of hockey operations. Molson, however, decided to go in another direction, sparking Mellanby’s resignation on Saturday.

By hiring Jeff Gorton, Molson is bringing in an experienced and respected hockey executive. He rebuilt the Rangers during his tenure as their general manager from 2015 until fired last May. He signed Artemi Panarin, acquired Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba and drafted Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko.

Before that, Gorton spent eight years as an assistant general manager with the Boston Bruins. During several months as their interim GM in 2006, he acquired goaltender Tuukka Rask, drafted forwards Phil Kessel, Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic, and signed defenseman Zdeno Chara and forward Marc Savard.

Whoever Gorton hires as Bergevin’s replacement must be fully bilingual. Sportsnet’s Eric Engels recently speculated whether Roberto Luongo, Patrick Roy, Martin Madden Jr., Vincent Damphousse or Mathieu Darche will be among the candidates for the job.

It remains to be seen whether any of them get the job or if Gorton goes with a lesser-known option. Nevertheless, change is underway with the Canadiens, which will determine the future of head coach Dominique Ducharme and perhaps lead to some significant changes to the current roster in the coming weeks and months.










What If NHL Fans Don’t Return As Quickly As Expected?

by | Nov 14, 2021

What If NHL Fans Don’t Return As Quickly As Expected?

The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on NHL revenue over the last two seasons. Shortened seasons saw revenues plummet from a high of $5.09 billion in 2018-19 to $4.37 billion the following season. On May 13, 2021, The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro reported the league missed out on roughly $3.6 billion in revenue in 2020-21 due to lowered attendance.

Prior to the start of the 2021-22 season, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman was optimistic about the league generating $5 billion in revenue barring any interruptions by COVID-19. Earlier in the year, the league signed two new lucrative long-term broadcasting contracts with ESPN and Turner Sports. Teams were able to sell jersey ad patches for the first time plus the league was tapping into other revenue streams such as sports betting and endorsements.

The lifeblood of the NHL remains tickets sales (particularly season-ticket or long-term ticket sales) and the in-arena revenue generated by concessions, merchandise and parking. With teams allowing full attendance with varying COVID protection mandates based on local health and safety protocols, the prospect of reaching Bettman’s $5 billion revenue projection appeared assured.

One month into the 2021-22 schedule, however, attendance is down around the league compared to where it was before the pandemic.

On Oct. 25, Sean Shapiro reported average attendance prior to the COVID shutdown in 2019-20 was 17,423. Through the first 75 games of this season, it had dropped to 16, 256. He also indicated several teams, including the Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators and Pittsburgh Penguins, saw years of sellout streaks come to an end.

As of Nov. 13, ESPN.com reported only five teams (Tampa Bay, Washington, Vegas, Boston and Seattle) were playing to capacity. Attendance in the Canadiens market was down, with Toronto at 99.3 percent capacity, Vancouver 97.9, Montreal 92.0, Winnipeg 91.9, Edmonton 84.2, Calgary 78.1 and Ottawa at 57.8. Other notable NHL clubs also down included Colorado (97.5) St. Louis (95.3), Minnesota (92.5) Philadephia (88.2) and the New York Rangers at 83.5.

Several factors besides the pandemic are partially to blame in some cases. The Chicago Blackhawks, for example, are struggling on the ice while the franchise has been rocked by a sexual assault scandal from 2010. Some, like the Ottawa Senators, can tie their drop in attendance to their efforts in rebuilding their rosters.

The pandemic, meanwhile, still hovers over all aspects of life. Some fans still might not feel safe enough to return to games despite the health and safety measures while others could be put off by those rules.

A worrisome factor could be the cost of attending NHL games becoming too expensive for fans feeling the economic effects of the pandemic. Inflation could push the already expensive cost of attending an NHL game out of reach for the average fan. Some season-ticket or long-term ticket package holders could instead choose from more affordable single game or shorter-term options.

That doesn’t mean the NHL still won’t see a significant increase in hockey-related revenue (HRR) compared to last season. It could reach the $5 billion mark as projected by Bettman.

However, the NHL exceeded $5 billion in 2019-20 under the previous broadcasting deals and revenue streams, and without its new franchise in Seattle. Reaching roughly the same number this season won’t be the kind of improvement the league would prefer under normal circumstances.

Big-market clubs should be able to ride things out until HRR improves. Smaller markets, however, will fill the pinch.

That would also affect the players’ share of HRR and the salary cap. The owners and players share HRR evenly at 50-50, but the cap for each season is based on projections from the previous year with escrow payments from the players to the owners built into each season’s salaries. If the owners’ share of HRR exceeds the players’ share, the players get their escrow payments refunded with interest. Otherwise, the owners retain those escrow payments.

Under the 2020 CBA extension, escrow payments were capped at 10 percent for 2022-23 and six percent for each of the remaining three years of the extension. That was based on the expectation that attendance would return to normal by that point, with the players having already made expensive escrow payments last season and this season to help the owners offset their losses.

The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro pointed out the players still owe the owners nearly $1 billion. The next round of CBA talks could become contentious if revenue hasn’t significantly risen by 2025-26 to enable the players to pay off that debt.

Of course, it’s still early in this season. Attendance could rebound if the North American economy improves as the pandemic subsides and life regains a semblance of normal.

But what happens if that’s not the case? What if those attendance figures are sluggish to return to what they once were? What if there’s yet another wave of COVID-19 that leads to rescheduled games or another shortened schedule? What happens to the players’ debt to the owners?

The fallout from the effects of the pandemic upon NHL revenue could linger for years. That could raise the specter of yet another work stoppage when the collective bargaining agreement expires in 2026.