Roundup of Commentary on Some Recent NHL Stories
Once upon a time, I used this Soapbox to share my opinions on whatever NHL news I found interesting. Over time, however, my workload increased as I took on more freelance work, leaving me little time to devote attention to specific topics.
As I did more daily coverage of noteworthy NHL headlines, I offered up more commentary on the topics that caught my eye. The following is a roundup of viewpoints from stories that appeared in recent weeks.
Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comments below.
McDavid’s Future In Edmonton Uncertain?
EDMONTON JOURNAL: Robert Tychowski reports Oilers captain Connor McDavid left just a little doubt over whether he’ll remain in Edmonton after next season. The 28-year-old superstar center has a year left on his contract and will be eligible for unrestricted free-agent status next July.
McDavid talked about the hard work the organization has done to build toward being a Stanley Cup contender. He indicated that he would take some time to regroup, talk to his agent and family, adding there was no rush to sign a contract extension on July 1.
Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid (NHL Images).
However, McDavid made a remark that left just enough room for doubt.
“With that being said, ultimately, I still need to do what’s best for me and my family. That’s how you have to take care of, first. But of course there is unfinished business here.”
McDavid was asked what would influence his decision.
“Winning would be at the top of the list, it’s the most important thing. If I feel there is a good window to win here, then signing is no problem.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Edmonton pundits, including Tychowski and Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic, believe the odds favor the Oilers re-signing McDavid. They felt his comments were meant as a direct message to management that he’ll be closely watching their roster decisions over the next two weeks.
Nevertheless, a few observers around the league speculated about the possibility of McDavid becoming available in the trade market or via free agency next summer.
If McDavid becomes a trade candidate, several factors will determine potential destinations.
An interested team needs sufficient trade capital on its roster, which could include its most promising young player and a top-six veteran forward. They must be prepared to part with at least one first-round pick and at least one top prospect. Finally, and most importantly, they need sufficient cap space to sign McDavid to a long-term extension and still be able to ice a contending roster.
It would be cheaper to wait for free agency, but it could still cost up to 20 percent of a team’s cap payroll for 2026-27 to sign McDavid. If the cap reached $104 million as projected, the maximum contract is $20.8 million.
NEW YORK POST: Larry Brooks believes the NHL must address what he considers the “glaring inequality” that six teams out of five states (Florida, Texas, Nevada, Washington and Tennessee) with no state income tax have had over the other 26 clubs over the past decade.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The salary cap addresses that inequality. The Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2004 Stanley Cup roster was swiftly depleted by the imposition of the cap in 2005. As well managed as the Lightning have been over the past 10 years, salary-cap constraints took their toll over the past three years, leading to three straight first-round eliminations.
Shrewd management played a significant role in the recent championship success of the Lightning, Panthers, and Golden Knights. The lack of a state tax may have made it easier to re-sign key players, but they were still expensive to retain, eating up valuable cap space at the expense of their overall roster depth.
The Panthers are a strong club and could repeat as champions this season. Nevertheless, cap constraints took their toll last season when top-four defenseman Brandon Montour departed via free agency. That trend will continue to affect their roster depth as it did to their rival in Tampa Bay.
Before their recent dominance, the Panthers were a laughingstock for decades. The lack of a state income tax didn’t help them during those grim years when they were mismanaged.
The Stars have done well since 2020 (four Conference Finals, one Stanley Cup Final) because of their management. Jim Nill won the Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award in 2023 and 2024 and is a finalist this season. However, they missed the playoffs nine times between 2008-09 and 2018-19, with four of those under Gill’s watch. A lack of a state tax didn’t give them an edge during those lean years.
Despite the Golden Knights’ short history, management was a significant factor in their success. A lack of a state tax likely played a role in signing core players like Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo. However, the club’s impressive record was due to the efforts of former general manager George McPhee and his successor, Kelly McCrimmon.
Nevertheless, the salary cap also affected their roster depth. In recent years, limited space forced them to part with several core players, including 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault.
Strong management played a key role in the Predators maintaining a competitive roster under a cost-conscious ownership for years, including their march to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final. Their supposed tax advantage may have helped them land Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei via free agency last summer, but it didn’t help them reach the playoffs this season, nor has it helped them return to the heights of their 2016-17 season.
As for the Seattle Kraken, their tax advantage hasn’t given them any advantage thus far in their short history, missing the playoffs in three of the four seasons of their short existence.
SPORTSNET: The NHL and NHLPA indicated there will be no changes in the upcoming CBA to address any perceived advantages for teams located in no-tax states.
NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said there are many reasons why a player chooses to play in a certain location, a particular team or a particular coach that have nothing to do with the tax situation in that market.
NHLPA assistant executive director Ron Hainsey pointed out that clubs in higher-tax states like Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Los Angeles and Boston dominated the league between 2008 and 2020. He noted that superstars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Patrice Bergeron, and Zdeno Chara could’ve made more money playing elsewhere, but stayed put because they were playing for contenders, they liked where they lived, and didn’t want to move.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Stick tap to Hainsey for pointing out the blatantly obvious to punch holes in this “issue”.
The notion of teams in no-tax states having an advantage over other clubs has been recently trotted out by critics of the Florida Panthers, insinuating it’s the main reason behind their recent success. It’s the same excuse being used to explain why a Florida-based team has reached the Stanley Cup Final in every season since 2020.
That critique, of course, is nonsense.
The Panthers, and the Tampa Bay Lightning before them, were built by smart general managers and guided by shrewd coaches. To suggest otherwise is insulting to the hard work that those franchises have done to become champions.
THE ATHLETIC: Hainsey confirmed that the league and the PA are working to address the long-term injury reserve loophole in the next CBA. He didn’t get into the details, but said they continue to discuss finding a mechanism to put into place to manage that issue.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: LTIR is legalized salary-cap circumvention because there is no salary cap during the postseason. Every team has used it at one time or another, but some clubs have used it to bolster their rosters in preparation for the playoffs.
The Panthers are the most recent example. Matthew Tkachuk suffered an injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off that sidelined him for the final weeks of the regular season. The Panthers used the salary-cap savings to acquire Seth Jones before the trade deadline. Tkachuk returned to action for the start of this postseason, able to rejoin the roster because the salary cap only applies to the regular season.
The Panthers operated within the rules as laid out in the CBA. They did nothing wrong, and they aren’t the only team to have used LTIR to their advantage. Nevertheless, this loophole allowed them to bolster their roster for the playoffs in a way that they wouldn’t have had if Tkachuk had been healthy.
Podkolzin A Big Miss For The Canucks?
THE PROVINCE: Former Vancouver Canucks forward Vasily Podkolzin is in the Stanley Cup Final with the Edmonton Oilers. Ben Kuzma believes drafting Podkolzin 10th overall in the 2019 NHL Draft was a “big miss” by the Canucks.
Kuzma points out they could’ve had Matt Boldy, who was chosen two picks later by the Minnesota Wild. Boldy has gone on to become a first-line forward with the Wild, netting a career-best 73 points this season.
Podkolzin struggled in his three season with the Canucks, who traded him to the Oilers last summer. The 23-year-old winger had 24 points in 82 games as a depth forward this season.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Reviewing NHL Central Scouting’s final 2019 rankings, Boldy was ninth among North American skaters while Podkolzin was second among International skaters. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman had Boldy eighth overall among his top prospects and Podkolzin 12th. The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy had Podkolzin eighth and Boldy 11th, and McKeen’s Hockey and Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino had Podkolzin 11th and Boldy 12th.
Hindsight is 20-20. The NHL Draft is often a crapshoot, with some players meeting or exceeding expectations while most fail to do so.
Spectacular Lyle. Keep it coming. Generally agree with most of your takes. I mean obviously the leafs did right signing Tavares and should have immediately traded Marner for d help. But otherwise… simpatico.
Tax inequalities? The NHL has said, “Nothing to see here, move along!”
Taxes are only one component: a winning culture and good management are more significant, as are cost of living and quality of life/proximity to family. I also suspect there is a huge advantage to teams with warmer climates. Perhaps the NHL should create a “snow subsidy” for teams in colder climates to offset the competitive advantages of teams with nice weather? What is “fair” is a moving target with a lot of variables, and is rarely agreed upon.
As far as the tax advantage goes.
No one has ever claimed that due to the 5 states with no state tax that they are guaranteed success. The argument is that it is an unfair advantage.
Yes proper management is still needed for success. You can’t put the Pakled,s in charge and suddenly make your self strong. (Star trek reference)
But you can use all the tools available to you towards that end. One tool 5 states have over the other is no state tax.
It’s an advantage that isn’t countered by the cap. All teams need to deal with the cap. The no state tax will benefit a team who is trying to manage rosters as it may allow them to fit a player under contract where a team with out the tax benefit in the same situation could not.
What I am saying is. Just because teams in a state with no tax can struggle. That does not mean they do not benefit from the bo tax.
People take performance enhancing drugs all the time, struggle and fail to win their sport. Do we not consider the drug illegal in those sports.
Jeff: The inference among some pundits (Larry Brooks) and analysts (Paul Bissonnette) is that the Panthers’ being in a no-tax state is the reason behind their success. Same with the Lightning and the Golden Knights. That’s simply not true, but they’re spreading that myth, and that’s what I take issue with.
NFL like NHL has salary cap. Miami Dolphins currently hold longest drought without winning playoff game. Also, Dolphins haven’t won Super Bowl in over 40 years. Clearly Dolphins haven’t used no-tax advantage.
Note: Florida homes and homes insurance generally very expensive comparing to most states.
Correction – Dolphins haven’t won Super Bowl in over 50 years.
4 of the 5 past Cup rosters used the LITR to have great depth for their playoff runs.
and the only chatter is from the Oilers Kane litr issues…..
This whole tax free state argument has grown stale and boring. I read on this site a couple of weeks ago how Toronto and other big city teams have a big advantage because of the extra income players can make in endorsements as opposed to mid market teams. When are they going to fix that unfair advantage.
And what about the weather, sun belt teams enjoy year round outdoor activities, especially golf that northern teams don’t have. How are they going fix that problem import snow and ice to the south.
The bottom line is if you want to win hire a gm like Zito or Brisbious a coach like Cooper or Maurice, have good owners and success will follow. The reality is EVERYBODY in Canada and the USA are over taxed. Fix the tax problem for everyone instead of trying to punish the places that have figured it out.
As a senior citizen and avid hockey fan other than taxes the weather in Vegas, Dallas and Fla. would sell me on my choice of teams. I Don t have enough umbrellas to live in Seattle. The thought of freezing temperatures and snow drifts against beaches and golf courses is a no brainer.
The no state tax gives these teams between 5-10% extra cap space and is part of their adv
Lyle, I didn’t mean to be redundant didn’t think my first comment posted, sorry.
The no tax reminds me of the exchange rate debate…bottom line, the difference is marginal. With the cap going up, that difference will be bigger which then shall become a noticeable difference. The smaller the cap number is, like in the past where these teams were not competitive, the no tax made no difference. But logically, larger the cap number, the larger the difference will get. Will it be an advantage, probably but ultimately, you’ll still need good management and players to win…pre cap era taught us that.
Like many things in life, something must fail first before we can fix the “broken” thing. Right now it’s just making some noise.
The tax factor is a minimal advantage and I believe the NHL is right in ignoring it.
However the LTIR issue is indeed more major, as correctly pointed out. I believe the fault is in having no cap during playoffs. I think it’s quite simple to fix though – just fix the salaries and their cap influence at the last day of the regular season and use these numbers to calculate for the play-offs. No need to do anything with the actual LTIR.
Great writeup, really enjoyed it. Moved around a lot in the military and found that states get their money one way or the other. Low/no income tax probably means a higher sales or property tax. Some states with lower taxes across the board may lack services and infrastructure support. Great point made that management is the key and taxes are the excuse for other teams.
Larry Brooks and others should enjoy the fruits of what the state or provincial residents voted for.
They wanted high taxes, they got them.
Enjoy them.
It is not for a league to correct the will and stupidities of the state’s or city’s electorate.
The beauty is, these people might learn something. Like, punishing the wealthy, as Socialists are apt to do, achieves negative results… every time it’s tries.
LMAO!!!