NHL Rumor Mill – December 8, 2022
Could the Blues shop Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko or Colton Parayko at the trade deadline? What teams could become suitors for the Canadiens’ Sean Monahan and what type of return could he fetch? Find out in today’s NHL Rumor Mill.
LATEST BLUES SPECULATION
THE ATHLETIC: Jeremy Rutherford was asked plenty of questions about whether the Blues will become sellers by the March 3 trade deadline in his latest mailbag segments.
Rutherford considers it doubtful that general manager Doug Armstrong will try to shake things up this month as he’s previously mentioned the difficulty of doing that in-season. He anticipates the Blues could wait until the trade deadline to get more for their tradeable assets.
He can see Armstrong re-signing Ryan O’Reilly and keeping him as a middle-six forward for the next couple of seasons but that depends on whether he prioritizes getting paid or staying put. If it’s the latter and the Blues are out of playoff contention by the deadline, he thinks O’Reilly will get shopped along with fellow pending free agent Vladimir Tarasenko for packages that include a first or a second-round pick.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Given Tarasenko reportedly never rescinded the trade request he made in May 2021, I’d say he’s as good as gone by the deadline if the Blues are out of the playoff race by that point. I concur that O’Reilly’s status depends on how much he’s seeking on his next contract and for how long.
Rutherford believes there would be some interest around the league in Colton Parayko, who’s in the first season of an eight-year contract. However, he’s not sure the Blues want to move him in part because it would be difficult to replace him. If they were to move Parayko, it wouldn’t be for picks and prospects.
Asked about the possibility of shipping Parayko to Toronto for William Nylander, Rutherford cited a Toronto colleague dismissing that option. He cited Parayko’s age (29) and contract as sticking points plus the Leafs aren’t going to trade a productive player like Nylander who can help them win now.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Parayko’s annual cap hit is $6.5 million plus he has a full no-trade clause until 2028-29. I don’t see him going anywhere this season.
POTENTIAL SUITORS FOR MONAHAN
MONTREAL HOCKEY NOW: Marco D’Amico recently cited 98.5 FM Montreal’s Dany Dube saying there are a handful of teams around the NHL that could make use of Canadiens center Sean Monahan as a two-way secondary scorer. He believes the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche could consider the 29-year-old center as an attractive trade target.
D’Amico also pondered what Monahan might fetch the Canadiens if he’s peddled by the trade deadline. He pointed to the return the Winnipeg Jets got for Andrew Copp from the New York Rangers at last season’s deadline, which included a conditional second-round pick that became a first-rounder when the Rangers reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Final.
He also referred to the St. Louis Blues in 2018 getting a first-rounder in their package return from the Jets for Paul Stastny, as well as the first-rounder the Ottawa Senators got in a package return that year in a three-team trade that sent Derick Brassard to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: I’ve seen some folks scoff at the notion of the Canadiens getting a first-round pick for Monahan. They could be right. However, it’s worth remembering the Canadiens convinced the Calgary Flames to give up a first-round pick to take Monahan off their hands. They also got a first-round pick from the Florida Panthers at last season’s trade deadline for Ben Chiarot. Never underestimate desperation as a factor in the trade market.
“They could be right. However, it’s worth remembering the Canadiens convinced the Calgary Flames to give up a first-round pick to take Monahan off their hands.”
To be honest, I don’t think the fact that it cost the Flames a 1st to send him away isn quite the argument in favour of the Habs RECEIVING a first for him that you may think it is.
No 1st coming to habs for Monahan
Probably not. Then again, folks said the same thing last season about Chiarot…;)
Don’t be so sure about that. GMs get brain damage at the TDL. Don’t forget, the Jackets turned Nick Foligno and David Savard into 1st round picks a couple years ago.
Giving up a 1st often depends on where the relinquishing team figures to be in the draft (e.g., top 3rd – middle 3rd – bottom 3rd etc) as well as the consensus at the time as to how deep a draft it’s expected to be.
Of course, there are always players eventually making it big in the NHL who are picked low in the 1st or following rounds, but these are the exceptions – NO one can say they knew “for certain” that someone chosen low in the 1st or other rounds was going to emerge as a star choice.
All of this to say that, when the time comes, a team high in the standings obviously expected to go deep in the playoffs and seeing a Monahan as the answer to a depth problem at C will give up a 1st without blinking.
I sure did Lyle. If chariot can get a first….
I also dismissed the notion of Chiarot fetching a first. Now, it’s quite possible the Habs won’t get a first for Monahan. The market seems to fluctuate from season to season and what drew a first in one year won’t draw a first the following year. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to suggest the Habs could get a first for Monahan.
As George and others pointed out, some GMs get desperate as the deadline draws near while those on Cup contenders are willing to sacrifice a piece of their future if it’ll help them win a championship now. We’ll find out for sure what Monahan’s market value really is by March 3.
Because this years draft class is supposedly one of the best in years teams will be reluctant to trade away their 1 st round pick.
I understand everyone’s logic and comparables about previous years returns. I equate this to the fact those draft classes were not considered deep.
In past years Treliving had no problem trading away his 1st round pick but he is on record saying this years 1st will not be traded away because the draft class is so good and so deep.
Might be a disappointing trade deadline day
Correct, George. If a team believes it is a true contender, then trading their first round pick isn’t that costly. For example would they not be giving up something like the 25th overall pick? That’s 8 picks away from the second round.
Other factors are the ages of the team’s best players and whether the player being acquired will re-sign with the receiving team. In this case, Monahan is 28. He will surely be productive for another 4 years.
So a player of his age and calibre added to a roster now for the price of a prospect that has no guarantee of being a solid NHL player for several years makes giving up a first rounder sensible.
Which is why we routinely see teams giving up a first rounder at the trade deadline. Not sure why there is controversy over the notion.
Any contender trading a first round pick for Monahan would be trading a low 1st rounder likely in the 20-32 range…it’s not like they’re trading a top 10 lottery pick…
If MTL retains salary or takes back salary I could see it happening.
The way I read the comment is that the Habs already got a first for Monahan so whether they get another one is moot. Perhaps I am wrong.
I think that Lyle wanted to emphadize the « desperation « aspect of this move, and compare it to the « desperation « another club could be in, needing a center…
As far as the value of Monaghan to the Habs, as much as I like him, at this point in the rebuilt, I would stick to the plan, and trade him.
I believe the point being made is not predictive or about Monahan’s “value”, but rather about Hughes’ negotiation skills.
That’s exactly what I meant.
trade nylander for parayko its easier to find scoring winger than it is to obtain established right hand d man and if you could find winger with grit you are ahead
Here are the candidates in my opinion if moved will likely get a 1st
Kane Klingberg. Tarasanko. Dumba Meier O Reilly. Horvat
I have not included any non pending UFAs
Can’t believe that Montreal could potentially turn Monahan into two 1sts: 1 for taking him away from Calgary and 1 for trading him away this year.
I originally didn’t think he would garner a 1st this year, but when I see the other recent names that got 1sts (Chariot, Copp, Brassard) Montreal should definitely hold out for a 1st.
When you see those other names traded for 1st + extras, I can’t see Habs receiving less than a 1st.
(note : will have to eat 50% salary, maybe throw-in a later round pick).
I shake my head every time when I see what GMs are giving up for a 1st round pick at the TDL. I am a firm believer that you never trade a 1st round pick for a playoff rental player. Yeah, they work out on the odd occasion, but there are way more misses than hits when dealing a 1st round pick at the TDL for a UFA rental player.
With the way these young players are developing, more and more of them are making the NHL. Young players who are on their ELC are also the type of players teams need when they have high-priced star players to keep their cap situation manageable.
I think GM’s for contending teams are looking for a way to win the cup as opposed to what prospect they are going to get in the middle to bottom of the first round. Most the of the time that mid to late first round pick is not going to help the team for a number of years.
Well if Montreal can get a 1st for Monahan, then the TDL is going to be like Christmas for Chicago.
Toews, Kane, Domi and Athanasiou all on the move, how many 1st round picks and top prospects will the Hawks be pulling in.
Understanding that Toews and Kane will be a little harder to move simply because of salary cap.
If the Oilers make a move it will be for a second-pairing stay-at-home d-man. Their forward issue will be fixed when they get Kane, Foegele, and McLeod back from injury.
Parayko, being an Edmonton boy, would be an interesting deal, but I don’t see the Blues trading him.
curious the blue jackets have several players out for the season with injuries. couldnt they use this savings to free up cap space and potentially get some talent to help them this season.
Sure they could, but at what cost? Can they afford to give up assets to bring in any help that would be meaningful? Will whoever they bring in turn them into contenders for the cup?
If not, the juice probably isn’t worth the squeeze.
Take a look at who’s developing for the Jackets. Yes, injuries have devastated the Jackets, but they are also in year two of a full rebuild. And this sad year could be beneficial. Several of the projected top picks are seen as #1C’s. The Jackets have been trying to find a #1C since 2001.
I’d trade the Bruins 1st for Monahan. Then throw something together for Vancouver for Schenn.
I think we’d be set then. Sweeney likes to bring in guys with a second year though, so we’ll see. Maybe he likes what he has right now. I’d upgrade at 4C, but that’s just me. Nosek is fine, but Monahan would be ridiculous.
He would provide some injury insurance for the first two lines as well. Monahan could slot in at 2C for a stretch, Nosek could not.
Lyle and All,
The Blues have some BAD contracts and a WEAK minor league pool of prospects! They are NOT a cup contender this year and should try to get younger with some picks and prospects.
In addition, to O’Reilly, Tarasenko, and Parayko, let’s add Krug, Saad and Binnington to the “list”!!
Disgruntled in Iowa
Hello disgruntled in Iowa (btw , was there in Oct…. Dubuque… nice city)
Please provide demands for Parayko from Pens…. Note 1 (min ) contract has to come back for Cap balancing this year…. So Petry orDumo
1st (lottery protected); O’Connor; Gruden; Puust OR Hollander ; Petry
It’s got to sting you a little:
POJ, Poulin, Kapanen, and 2nd
for Parayko and Logan Brown
Monahan just turned 28, appears recovered from hip surgeries and is playing good hockey 6g-11a-17 pts, 55.1% faceoff this year.
Kadri is 32 y/o an is10g-10a-20 pts. 47.2% faceoff
At this rate a 1st rounder for Monahan is not only realistic but may very well choose to resign him.
The talk from D’Amico and Dube is pure speculation