Were The Canadiens Good Or Just Lucky?

Were The Canadiens Good Or Just Lucky?

Are the Montreal Canadiens a stronger team than we thought, or did they just get lucky and go on a five-week hot streak?

The Canadiens enjoyed an impressive run in the 2021 playoffs. The lowest overall postseason seed, they upset the heavily-favored Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

They came a cropper against the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, falling in five games. However, the clubs the Habs eliminated wouldn’t have fared any better against the powerful Bolts.

The Canadiens’ playoff success papered over the fact they barely qualified in the first place.

They cooled off after a hot start, replaced most of their coaching staff by midseason, saw starting goalie Carey Price endure one of the worst regular seasons of his career, endure a 25 game in 44-night second-half stretch following a COVID-19 outbreak, lost playmaking winger Jonathan Drouin for the remainder of the season for personal reasons, and endured a shaky stretch drive with Price, captain Shea Weber and alternate captain Brendan Gallagher sidelined by injury.

Little wonder no one gave them a chance of defeating the Leafs, Jets and Golden Knights in each successive round. And yet, they defied the critics and overcame the odds.

Montreal Canadiens pose with the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl (NHL.com).

But which team are the real Canadiens? The one that took their fans on a dazzling run that came within three games of the Stanley Cup? Or the one that stumbled through a shortened season and backed into the playoffs?

On the one hand, the Habs seemed to finally adjust to interim coach Dominique Ducharme’s system in the postseason. They played a strong team game with an emphasis on solid defensive play, quick zone transitions, and in-close scoring chances. Their penalty-killing was the best throughout this postseason.

Price bounced back, reminding everyone why he’s still among the best goalies in the game. Weber, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson formed a solid top-four defense that cleared traffic from around Price’s net and took away the opposition’s scoring lanes.

Young forwards Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Jesperi Kotkaniemi continue to blossom into future stars. Josh Anderson provided size, speed and clutch scoring. Tyler Toffoli was strong at both ends of the rink. Phillip Danault was superb in a shutdown center role. Greybeards Corey Perry and Eric Staal provided invaluable depth experience and leadership.

On the other hand, Price admitted he didn’t play well during the first three games against the Lightning. Anderson’s scoring was inconsistent for most of the playoffs. A thumb injury robbed Weber of his fearsome point shot. Alexander Romanov’s limited postseason appearances raised questions over Ducharme’s faith in the promising defenseman. The power play often looked like they were playing with a live grenade.

So, are they an emerging Stanley Cup contender or an overachiever that crashed to earth in the Final?

Marc Bergevin was a finalist for GM of the Year, which for some weird reason is voted on following the second round of the playoffs. He wouldn’t have even been among the candidates had that vote occurred following the regular season.

The Canadiens’ playoff run probably saved Bergevin’s job (should he still want it) and should remove the interim label off Ducharme’s title. Having gotten their team to the Final, can they avoid the pitfalls that doomed many Cup Final underdogs of the past?

Everything depends on several factors.

Bergevin was able to use plentiful cap space to add Toffoli, Anderson, Perry, Staal, Edmundson and backup goalie Jake Allen. Making similar acquisitions won’t easy with a salary cap expected to remain flat for the next several seasons.

More promising youngsters must begin to crack the lineup. Ryan Poehling, Mattias Norlinder, Cayden Primeau, Jan Mysak, Kaiden Guhle and Jordan Harris have to make a positive impression within the next several years.

Price must maintain his strong playoff form throughout the regular season, something he’s had difficulty doing in recent years. The 36-year-old Weber must begin accepting a reduced role as a second-pairing defenseman, allowing Petry to take the first-pairing role on their right side.

Toffoli and Gallagher must remain healthy. Danault should be brought back but that could prove difficult given his earlier rejection of a six-year, $30 million deal. If not, a suitable replacement must be found. Perry should be an affordable one-year signing.

Suzuki, Caufield, Kotkaniemi and center Jake Evans must keep improving and take on greater roles and responsibilities. Romanov must be given more playing time and room to allow for his development. Anderson needs to find the back of the net more often. They need more from Drouin than what he’s given them in the past, assuming he can continue his playing career.

Ducharme must prove he can still make the right moves as he did through most of this postseason. He has to ensure the players still buy into his system. He must also silence critics who feel he’s slow to trust his youngsters given his seeming reluctance to insert Kotkaniemi, Caufield and Romanov into the lineup earlier in this postseason.

Even if all those factors pan out, will the Canadiens be deep enough and strong enough to match up well in an Atlantic Division? Can they compete on an even footing with the powerhouse Lightning, the improving Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators, the still-talented Maple Leafs and still-dangerous Boston Bruins?

Can they do more than just hold their own against Eastern Conference teams like the veteran-laden Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals? Will they be able to handle the rising Carolina Hurricanes, the promising New York Rangers, and the hard-working New York Islanders?

Can they keep pace with the best of the west in the Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche? Or the Connor McDavid-led Edmonton Oilers? The suddenly improved Minnesota Wild?

This year was a heckuva run for the Canadiens but they have a long way to go to prove they’re more than a one-year wonder.










Random Thoughts on the NHL – June 21, 2021

Random Thoughts on the NHL – June 21, 2021

Some NHL followers were grumbling on social media over how the Vegas Golden Knights got more favorable expansion draft rules compared to previous clubs entering the league. Those complaints arose during the Golden Knights march to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final and resurfaced as they reached this year’s semifinals

The previous rules hamstrung the expansion franchises of the 1990s, ensuring for some a long, difficult road toward playoff contention. Some struggled longer than others, largely because of impatient owners, incompetent management or both.

In hindsight, the Golden Knights benefited from those changes to the expansion draft rules. But let’s be honest folks, no one looked at their initial roster and thought, oh, yeah, that’s an instant Cup contender.

Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (NHL Images).

Their most notable player was goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, considered past his prime by that time. There were also several skilled veterans in Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, David Perron and James Neal, plus some promising players like Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and William Karlsson. The rest of the lineup was comprised mostly of depth players.

Anyone who declared the Golden Knights a playoff contender entering 2017-18 would’ve been considered naive. Those declaring them a Cup contender would’ve been dismissed as lunatics.

Yet here they are four years later, a club with a solid foundation forged by the former general manager (now team president) George McPhee and built up by current GM Kelly McCrimmon, well-coached first by Gerard Gallant and now Peter DeBoer.

It wasn’t favorable expansion draft rules that made the Golden Knights what they are today. It was savvy management and coaching, something the Seattle Kraken hope to emulate approaching their inaugural campaign.

*****

One benefit of this season’s compacted NHL schedule is we don’t have to endure the cringe-worthy train wreck of the league’s annual award show. Instead, the individual awards are announced by the league, with the winner giving his acceptance speech from his home via Zoom or Skype.

It’s so much better than seeing NHL stars gathered in Las Vegas chafing in their finery enduring has-been musical acts and unfunny comedy routines. This year’s winners seem almost relieved they don’t have to go through that dog-and-pony show.

The league should make this a permanent change but they won’t. The powers-that-be think hockey fans want to watch their favorite stars sitting through its lame-ass version of the Academy Awards. Most couldn’t care less. Those who do so only for the opportunity to mercilessly mock it on social media.

*****

Loyalty is a big reason why Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour turned his club into a rising force among NHL teams. It played a part in why he’s this year’s winner of the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year.

The Hurricanes wanted to re-sign Brind’Amour and he wanted to stay on one condition: that his entire coaching staff also received new contracts. It took weeks to hash out the details but the two sides got it done.

Brind’Amour was a team guy when he was a player and he’s the same as a coach. That’s why his players work as hard as they do for him. It’s why the Hurricanes have a bright future as long as ownership ensures Brind’Amour has the players he needs to contend for the Stanley Cup.










Random Thoughts On The NHL – June 16, 2021

Random Thoughts On The NHL – June 16, 2021

Some folks believe the Tampa Bay Lightning circumvented the salary-cap system when Nikita Kucherov returned to the lineup in time for the playoffs after missing the regular season recovering from hip surgery.

The Lightning were facing a big salary-cap crunch approaching the start of this season. They were sitting above the $81.5 million ceiling and had to be cap compliant when the season began in mid-January. They unsuccessfully attempted to move a fading Tyler Johnson and his $5-million cap hit via trade or waivers. Speculation suggested they’d have to part with someone like Alex Killorn or perhaps convince Ondrej Palat to waive his no-trade clause.

Tampa Bay Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov (NHL Images)

Kucherov underwent hip surgery on Dec. 29 with a recovery period of four to five months. By placing him on long-term injury reserve, the Lightning garnered $9.5 million in cap relief. Not only did they not have to make a cost-cutting trade, but they also had sufficient wiggle room to take on defenseman David Savard at the trade deadline.

Because the salary cap only applies during the regular season, Kucherov’s return when the playoffs began raised some eyebrows. Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Dougie Hamilton seemed to stoke that fire following his club’s second-round elimination by the Lightning, claiming they were beaten by a team sitting $18 million over the cap.

Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois pointed out Kucherov’s status was investigated by the league and no wrongdoing was found. Kucherov, meanwhile, said he had to have the surgery and took the necessary time to recover. He also said he didn’t make the rules regarding LTIR.

Yes, the Lightning circumvented the salary cap, but only because they’re allowed to do so under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Long-term injury reserve allow cap-strapped teams the flexibility to replace players who could miss a significant portion of the regular season.

A team with limited salary cap space can exceed the cap by the equivalent of the injured player’s salary to bring in a replacement, provided they are cap compliant when the sidelined player is medically cleared to return to action.

This isn’t the first time an NHL team has gone this route. In February 2015, the Chicago Blackhawks placed superstar winger Patrick Kane on LTIR with a broken collarbone. Kane missed the remainder of the regular season, allowing the Blackhawks to use the cap relief to bring in Antoine Vermette, Kimmo Timonen and Andrew Desjardins. Kane returned for the start of the playoffs, and the Blackhawks subsequently won the Stanley Cup.

That issue was discussed during a meeting of NHL general managers in March 2016. The league had the opportunity to close that loophole with the NHLPA during last year’s CBA extension negotiations but nothing came of it.

Either there wasn’t sufficient time to hammer out a suitable change to the LTIR rule or both sides saw little reason to change it.

*****

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks pointed to the Lightning’s cap payroll (and that of the Vegas Golden Knights) as proof the hard salary cap is a myth because those teams play in places without state taxes. That means they’re able to sign players for less than what they would’ve sought from teams in taxed states and provinces.

Brooks also praised the management of the Lightning and Golden Knights for managing their cap payrolls better than other clubs in non-tax states like the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, and Florida Panthers.

Despite that advantage, the Lightning and Golden Knights will soon discover how difficult it is to maintain a Stanley Cup contender under the salary-cap system.

If not for Kucherov going on LTIR to start this season, the Lightning would’ve lost a key player like Alex Killorn. They’re sitting above the cap by over $5 million for next season, and while they’ll likely try to swing a deal with the Seattle Kraken to get them to take Tyler Johnson and his $5 million, they’ll still have to shed salary to find sufficient cap space to fill out the rest of their roster. They’ll likely lose David Savard and wingers Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow to this summer’s free-agent market.

The Golden Knights, meanwhile, have over $2.4 million in cap room with top-three defenseman Alec Martinez slated to become an unrestricted free agent. They’ll have to pare that down if they hope to clear more room to re-sign him.

Even if their respective managements can minimize the damage and remain Cup contenders next season, the long-range outlook isn’t good.

Golden Knights veterans Marc-Andre Fleury and Reilly Smith are UFAs in 2022 while promising defenseman Zach Whitecloud is a restricted free agent. It’s worse for the Lightning, with over $70 million invested in 12 players in 2022-23. Brayden Point becomes a restricted free agent next summer while Ondrej Palat is due for UFA status.

*****

Pierre-Luc Dubois had a disappointing performance with the Winnipeg Jets following his trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets in January. The expectation is he’ll bounce back next season and regain his solid two-way form.

But what happens if he doesn’t? He will become a restricted free agent next summer with arbitration rights whose actual salary for 2021-22 is $6.65 million. The Jets will have to spend that much to just qualify his rights.

That would leave general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff facing a tough decision. Attempt to re-sign Dubois or try to trade him. Considering he gave up Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic to the Blue Jackets to get the 22-year-old center, either choice could provide fodder for Cheveldayoff’s critics.










Random Thoughts on the NHL – June 7, 2021

Random Thoughts on the NHL – June 7, 2021

The Ottawa Sun’s Don Brennan floated the theory that the reason Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon didn’t get enough votes for the Ted Lindsay Award was his peers are pissed at him because his salary is so low. MacKinnon has an annual average value of $6.3 million on his current contract, ranking 92nd among the highest-paid NHL players.

Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (NHL Images).

A tiny flaw in that theory: they voted for MacKinnon as a finalist in 2018 and again in 2020.

As for his salary, he signed his current deal on July 8, 2016, following his entry-level contract. At the time, he was coming off a 21-goal, 52-point performance in 2015-16. Even by today’s standards, he got a healthy raise for a young player yet to reach his full potential.

Sure, folks were a little puzzled over why the NHLPA membership passed over MacKinnon for his good friend Sidney Crosby. No offense to the Pittsburgh Penguins captain but his fellow Cole Harbour, NS native had a better season. Whatever the reason, it had nothing to do with a contract MacKinnon signed nearly five years ago before he became a superstar.

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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The Toronto Maple Leafs wouldn’t be in the mess they’re in now if they hadn’t signed John Tavares in 2018.

That’s not a knock against Tavares. He didn’t hold a gun to the collective heads of Leafs president Brendan Shanahan and general manager Kyle Dubas. They reached out to him. They gave him the opportunity to play for his hometown team. They had no problem ponying up $11 million annually for seven years.

For the most part, Tavares has held up his end of the bargain, averaging a point per game over the last three seasons. The problem is they invested big money in a player they didn’t need.

When the Leafs signed Tavares, they were coming off a season that saw them finish fourth in the league in goals-per-game average (3.29). Meanwhile, their shots-against per game (33.9) was the fourth-highest.

Everyone knew the Leafs’ defensive game was their Achilles’ heel, and yet they went out and blew big bucks on a scoring forward.

The Tavares contract leaves the Leafs squeezed for cap space. It’s the reason why Dubas and Brandon Pridham, the Leafs’ trusty capologist, had to make cost-cutting moves to free up long-term cap space to re-sign Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. It’s why they settled for cheap veteran quick fixes last fall that didn’t pan out. And it’s why this team struggles to find the right chemistry to end its 17-year streak of postseason failure.

Trading Tavares is the easiest way to free up the dollars to resolve that issue but it’s not going to happen. His full no-movement clause puts an end to that notion. Even without it, his annual cap hit for the next four seasons is as good as a no-movement clause in this flat-cap environment.

**********

Everyone expects the Columbus Blue Jackets to trade Seth Jones after the 26-year-old defenseman stated his intent to test next year’s unrestricted free agent market. They cannot go through next season with his impending departure becoming an unnecessary distraction for his teammates.

Jones will draw plenty of interest in this summer’s trade market. He’s a big, minute-munching, all-around right-side blueliner. He had a down season in 2020-21 which affected his stats and analytic numbers, but there’s isn’t a general manager in the league who wouldn’t want him on their roster.

The Blue Jackets will probably try to get a significant return heavy on futures (draft picks, prospects) as they attempt to rebuild and change their culture. However, his contract status will affect his trade value. The Jackets could get a better deal if he agrees to a contract extension with the acquiring club.










NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs Seek To Slay Ghosts of Playoff Failures Past

NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs Seek To Slay Ghosts of Playoff Failures Past

 










NHL Playoffs: Underdog Canadiens Face Uphill Battle Against Maple Leafs

NHL Playoffs: Underdog Canadiens Face Uphill Battle Against Maple Leafs